Member Info for LuckyLuciano

Actually is up on Chinese market
https://www.investing.com/commodities/coking-coal-futures

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/IFFF22/futures-prices?viewName=main&timeFrame=current

..Is my understanding that China will not take part in COP25 in UK.
Many other countries like Australia, South Africa, Indonesia, and India are not going to phase coal put any time soon.
IMO unless Coal at very high price will force the adoption of renewable, there is no will from half of the world to get rid of coal. Most of the Renewable company are loss making, and is unthinkable that Governments will finance the complete costs transformation from fossil fuel to renewable.
At the same time phasing out coal and lack of development of new mines, will keep a short supply and underpin high prices...

Given the current situation in Energy markets, China would be completely deluded to hope for coal prices to go much lower, or return to 2020 levels.
World economies are not fully reopened, any improvement will add pressure on prices, look at iron ore price, it has been retraced from unsustainable levels but still seems find a higher support.....if was not like this , nobody would talks about inflation. IMO energy prices are political prices and with US also been now an exporter of this commodity, high prices are here to stay, which is also a good thing for renewables....
With coal price at $150/t or 25% less this month spot price, Tga is making its market cap in cash.....what can go wrong?
China scaremongering waging war on coal price had an immediate effect on price, which was to be expected, now the market forces will come to play, and we will see what is the real impact on prices short/medium terms. Long terms I am sure China will achieve what they are set to do on lowering coal prices, but there are many other developing economies that need coal, not just China.

All right Bengalcat
Thank you for coming.......

After the inevitable drop a small support....high gas price and the inevitable rebound.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/IFFF22/futures-prices?viewName=main

...indeed US companies are valued a much higher PE than over here.
Are we sure we are barking at the right tree with this campaign against shorting?
Maybe the Gov should set a %spread limit/cap for MM, something will never happen.

Thank you for the reply dickupham.
Maybe you explained it all regarding MM activities in destruction of share value....
In US market buying and selling shares or the spread is very often in the range of 1 unit, or 1 Cent, over here as you know it is a complete different story. At the rate of 2/3% spread in long terms guess who is disrupting share value?

...on the Trasnet situation on positive is that by putting forces together among Coal exporters and Transnet, they seem to have find a solution. Looks like they are going in the right direction and one would think some improvement are to come, going forward. Now that the new is out there should be some commitment from these parties to resolve this issue, hoping for positive news......

Indeed many prices for coal out there and many markets.
Possibly the Chinese market is the least of concern for Tga has it sells most of its coal to other Countries in the South Asian region, which have different economic metrics and markets. Nevertheless of course all coal prices are indirectly related. Tga with coal at $150/t average and for 14.5M/t export sold would still make FCF equal to its market cap for a PE of 1. Been a new entity and with recent financial somehow not backed by some consistency and track record, gives the sp lots of volatility to the point that IMV a market update before year end, which would confirm improvement on the Transnet operation and hint at some decent profits on the horizon, could see Tga sp going past 500p. On the down side if gas/oil price remain at these levels I see (hope) recent support will hold firmly. Looking forward for coal prices to stabilize possibly this week....

...I am not 100% sure but my understanding is that "naked shorting is allowed and used" whereas I don't thinks exists the equivalent in "naked long".
Moreover shorting or for that matter going long with shares not owned, doesn't benefit the company one is investing on, but only few people in the know.

two lots 20000 shares buy at 355.5. Today mostly small holders getting out and large buys coming in, maybe sp find a base for mid long term?

The Clive I agree that graph comparisons purely on sp without comments, or been related to something specific, are worthless.
Moreover is almost impossible to find a similar operation like Tga out there, hence I have recently posted a short term graph of 6 similar coal miners, just to show how much more Tga sp had dropped in the last 10 days.
Funny enough Tga sp on Friday was the only one among the 6 coal miners from that graph, which had a reasonable rise, back in line with the others.
But this kind of analyses started when trying to compare coal miners peer on fundamentals not just sp movements.
Whitehaven coal (AU) is possibly the more similar miner to Tga. WHC produce some 14/15 million cola mostly thermal per year. Has $800 mil. in net debit, made a small operating loss in H1 and its market cap is AU$2.1 Billions.
This is almost 3 times more than Tga market cap. I am not in the position to say if this is wrong or not, this is the market pricing and valuation of Tga.
Possibly other metrics comparison between Australian and SA miners even in different commodities could give a clue on what risks are attached to SA operation compared to AU.....
But again is impossible to find 2 operation exact the same to compare.

Hopefully all bad news have been flashed out, markets hate uncertainties.

If we sum up recent news flow from Ceo, he gave a wide range of scenarios with lost sales for H2 from 2 to 10 billion Rand.
On the operation side again we have 2 weeks.. now maybe even more of smooth operations, where rail has been managed by in house coal producers.
Possibly all the bead news are out now. The recent RNS talking about revised export sales at 14.8Mt - 15.2Mt, from 15Mt - 16Mt , but the possible lost sales range from Ceo interview correspond to 900k/4.5mil/t coal at 150$.
In my view it would be unprecedented if export for H2 was to drop 4.5million/t, problems with Transnet are not a new thing and export sale have never drop this much...
The sp reaction has been pricing in the worst scenarios and current coal prices in retreat are not helping, I which I could top up but although I do have some cash, I promised my self to keep a balanced portfolio and with Tga I am already breaking my rules.
Going forward there is still the chance of a trading update confirming the rail situation improving, especially is coal mining exporters keep managing the rail with Transnet, and coal price stabilising which in my view will be possibly at 150ish.
Currently sp is all over the place with investors wanting out at the slightest rise and many buying the lows.
Just to remind that as results from H1 with coal at below 100$ Tga made some £17millions a month excluding exceptional and charges. That is more than £200million profit or a PE of 2 at current sp.

I don't think I said that they are stealing coal.... But funny anyway....

Good find and .......from the tone of the article it seems that revised forecast of 14.5 million/t export for this year is a buls@it from Friday CeO
The again.....one of the posters here in a one to one conversation with Friday Ceo, hinted that for the last 2 weeks no more issues have occurred with Trasnet.
I still find that the best solution to resolve problems of this kind in SA is to take the situation in your own domain....if one is awaiting the SA government to resolve this kind of issues is asking for troubles even worst that simply thievery.
Private armed guards...shouldn't be too difficult.
One thing is sure ...and that is that this news are hitting the media circus thanks to Friday Ceo, whom didn't wait to find a solution before shouting to the world that there are issues with Transnet.
Information are fragmented from the Ceo and some time contradicting, he seems to act on impulse without been able to thnik trough what message to communicate to shareholder and what effect it will have on the sp.
Is going to be a wild ride with Tga, surely AN RNS BY END OF THE YEAR ON SYTUATION OF TRANSNET....hoping that private mining company keep managing the 250Km rail stretch would be appreciated.

HENRYKISS
Very good point but imo Mr. Friday is missing something......If something is not working, is not working.
No point in keeping knocking at the same door with hope that something will change, maybe sending veiled political messages. This is not going to change some intrinsic problems that pervade SA. Get some guys on the trains with guns well payed and you will see that nobody will steal nothing.... Even better catch the guys that steel stuffs at Transnet and pay them more to work for Transnet security.....but not RNS or reverse psychology that wont change a thing. Hopefully if coal export private companies are thanking over the some stretch of the rail thing will improve, finger crossed.

....last time I checked export is scaled down to 14.5mil/t this year with ample time to improve securities for next year.
At current coal prices 14.5 /t makes a fortune for Tga...................I don't really understand the DISCONNECT between what apparently the CEO comment on Transnet is depicting and his last week rns revision of export sales at 14.5mill/t.
Are we saying that in the last week export sales are now soo tin to justify current sp? If soo we need a new rns right?
No no something is smelling funny here......

crawshaw well I need a confirmation....still the company in last RNS and taking in to account all TRN issues reiterated export cola for 20201 at 14.5million/t.
I don't care if stock pile increases....send the miners on holiday for a month. The fact is that according to latest forecast export an therefore sales for 2021 are at 14.5mil/t at highest prices...moreover it looks like since cola exporting companies have taken over some TRN operation on the rail no more incidents or disruption for the last 2 week. So a way forward seems to be there for anyone willing to take it......Am i missing something? Is this 14.5 mill/t revised export volumes a buls@it?