The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Ps the FTSE is still 400 points below its high and the smaller caps even further behind. The huge undervaluation vs global peers is due to long term bad political decisions along with well founded doubts about UK politics in general. That said, with more companies going private and foriegn competitors on the prowl for cheap UK assets, its only time before value is recognised.
Aside from all the negativity , lets look at the wider picture.
Today...The Dow hits a new high along with major European indexes. Bae hits new high and Bab willy a four year high. Weak economic data is driving a risk on mindset focusing on rate cuts. Defence spending is a strong focus within the general upbeat market performances.
Eventually, a positive backdrop floats all boats. Yes, the constant disappointment of failed/delayed promises gives grist to the bear mill but in the cold light of day, this company will be around for many years.
The liklihood is 2024 revenues will be close to £200m and 2025 should have no problem getting to £300m with the help of FSS commencement.
So lets all get some perspective. At £20m mkt cap, how much lower do you think you can talk this down too?
I am prepared to buy a lot more if it gets to 10p...so keep bashing.
Hi Stokey. As i have said before, the best way to get ships on the water with limited capacity, is to speed up the build . Increased shift patterns would be a first step. The MoD must be thinking of ways to get the FSS on the water quicker. With only one support ship capable of resupply on scale, we cannot put two effective carrier groups to sea at once.
Article talks about incresed navy procurement in size and pace of delivery.
https://www.navylookout.com/when-will-the-type-45-destroyers-leave-royal-navy-service/
I just dont get the wholesale selling all this month. Every time an individual or collective sizeable trades appear on the buy side, stock comes out of the woodwork to more than cover it.
I am beginning to hear the words of Private Frasier ringing in my ears. Meant to be a jovial post not a call to arms for the bears.
wincanton...
yet another company, disgusted at the rediculously low valuation and liquidity in its shares, sells up and goes private.
when will our politicians revive the london stock exchange by removing the restrictive eu mifid rules and by reinstating pension fund dividend tax relief (reversing gordon brown's disastrous move in 1999)
with hw throwing money around with *** abandon, why the hell wont they institute a share buy back. if they really believe all the good things they feed us long-suffering shareholders, the return on the capital employed (to do so) would be significant.
my fear is that, given the 50% premium wincanton sold out for, the management might be tempted by preditors looking for yet another grossly undervalued company, offering several board members vast riches. 50% up from here would still be 50% below my original investment. given we are in year 4 of the jw, 5 year programme, the dismal share performance is without doubt a casualty of the wider market malaise. that does not mean hw should just grin and bear it.
lets start with an employee share scheme to share this undervaluation bounty and give the 1,000+ staff a sense of ownership in the companies future. this will go a long way to enhancing the employee/company relationship when unions start to flex their muscles under a labour government. bab**** and bae have already seen these issues.
i cannot understand why the bod pay so little attention to the share price or the imbedded losses of so many people who have supported them and their aspirations. time to think and act bold!
Recently, I mentioned the converging wedge of a downtrend line from Dec 2020 and an ascending line from the Oct 2022 low. Due to further convergence since original post, a close below 11.5p or above 13p would indicate a sharp move in either of those directions. According to my charts, please feel free to confirm or disagree, the two lines meet early Feb, by which time a significant move should have happened.
Yes, Stokey. Any change to the contract raises the value to the contractor ..also
What happened to local content for wind farms...
https://www.offshorewind.biz/2024/01/16/chinese-companies-to-supply-xxl-monopiles-for-1-1-gw-scottish-offshore-wind-farm/
With the UKs only remaining FSS holed up at Cammel Laird for a service, the navy's shortfall is becoming apparent. HMS Diamond which is in the Red Sea, has only 48 missiles to bring down incoming ordinance. This throws our lack of resupply into sharp focus. It is my bet that the MOD is evaluating the cost of contract acceleration.
Bubble21 et all. I read the Shapps speach but it was mostly bluster. We want Ships from Shapps not shyte from Shapps. As usual, its promises, promises. All the navy and air force personnel could fit into Twickenham with 18,000 seats still vacant. The army is the smallest since WW2. The RAF is too small to fight a conflict and with so few vessels, the navy would struggle to beat the Swiss navy.
Once conflict kicks off, its too late to start spending as was demonstrated in 1939.
Additionally, the last note by Cenkos Cavendish forecast interest cost of around £18m in fiscal 2024. Once the funding has been agreed, they will be able to reduce that figure quite considerably, maybe back to their forecasted 2022 level of £12m.
As a quiet, eery silence surrounds the birthing of this cruise giant, it is left to us ponder on its reason for sailing all this way, especially as it is due to be in Miami in june, to start its work route for the new owners. It is public knowledge that it requires extensive work prior to that final journey to work. If per chance that work is to be carried out by HW Belfast, then at a cost of sevelal tens of millions of pounds, it would take perceived and booked 2024 revenues close to the forcasted £200m.
With my crystal ball, should this golden wished for scanario come to fruition, I perceive an upgrade to the 2024 revenues fcast to offset a dissapointment when the 2023 revenues are released. We have already been warned that due to accounting procedures, 2023 would be nearer £90m than the forecast £100m. I for one would be happy to celebrate greater revenues going forward over my disappointment of lower historic revenues.
All to play for but any upward revision to 2024 is likely to spur Cavendish to accelerate their timimg of EBITDA positivity. Maybe, just maybe, it will bring Liberum into the picture and they will finally publish a note.
£20m market cap? In all my born years, i have never seen such an undervalued company.
As a side is, i believe the government are considering re-introducing dividend tax relief for UK pension institutions. This was scraped by Gordon Brown at the start of his tenure as chancellor. It was a factor in forcing these institutions away from equities. As they have reduced their holdings from 50% (of portfolio) to 3%, the cost would be minimal for now but transformative for the grossly undervalued UK equity market.
Fly or collapse? By the end of Jan, the downtrend from Dec 2020 which has around 8 hits on its way down from 50p, converges with the uptrend which was established by the 6p low in October 2022. This had around 6 hits.
Whilst the charts have been paychy having looking like a breakout to the upside many times...this coming together is quite rare. Something will have to give. Either the downside is broken with a close below 11p (target 6p) or the upside is broken with a close above 13.5p (target...who knows?