BofE rate cut next week?1 May 2024 18:25
Following on from recent posts about inflation coming down dramatically, allowing the BoE to cut rates sooner, this weeks data reinforces that opinion.
Following on from growing unemployment and weakening demand, non food inflation (clothing, footwear and other non food) for April has come in at -0.6%. You have to go back to mid 2019 to December 2021 to find comparable negativity (deflation) Overall shop prices are 0.8% higher y.o.y in April vs 1.3% last month. This fall in the annual retail component of inflation, when added to the decline in gas/electricity costs in April, will see the offical inflation data fall dramatically when released mid May. It is possible to as low as 2%. The Bank of England must cut rates at next Thursdays meeting. To continue waiting will only exacerbate the criticism that it was too slow to raise rates when inflation took off.
Comments from the CEOs of NEXT and Primark reinforces the slowing inflationary forces. Without doubt this is very much to do with CHINA flooding the world with cheaper goods as it battles a slowing property sector, which has powered the countries economy for the past three decades. In fact, in one year during that period, they used more cement than the USA did in the entire 20th century.