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JPMorgan have upgraded the aerospace and defence sector today. The index for this sector hitting a fresh all time high.

Whilst the larger degree of optimism is aimed at aerospace expansion, they see the geo-political instability driving higher spending by European governments for the next 5-10 years.

LSE03...To back up your post, we should not forget the words of Samuel Huntington, the American political scientist and author of Clash of Civilisations. He stared that...

" The west won ultimate peace (WW11) not by superiority of ideas, values and religion...but rather by its superiority of applying organised violence"

Stokey. I think it only applies to advising institutions to ensure insider dealings are controlled.

This was not required pre big bang as we had a single capicity system (now dual capacity) whereby the market maker, previously called jobbers, were totally independent wholsalers of stock with no analytical or broking capabilities. So we had jobbers, brokers and merchant banks. All performing a separate role with no overlap of function. Bug bang saw all these rolls combined in the new super investment banks. In my mind, the biggest failure of a system that had worked well for a century.

Last Friday, Deutsche Bank issued a research note raising its ratings on Bae and Rolls Royce based on the heightened global demand in defence.

To back this up, this week also saw the annual Armed Conflict Survey by the Internation Institute for Strategic Studies (based in London) . The result was the worst outcome for peace in 30 years with it recording 183 armed conflicts. Fatalities have risen 14% ( pre Gaza!) and violent events by 28%. It would appear the flexing of power by authoritarian states of Russia, China, Iran, Turkey and The Gulf States is behind the surge in localised violence. It is without doubt this report gives warning to the developed west, not to rest on its laurels.

The report leads one to an obvious conclusion, defence spending here in the UK has to rise. Despite this government's previous promises to raise defence spending to 3% of GDP, it is still languishing at 2%. Our military chiefs have warned this is not enough. Our army is at an all time low and our navy the smallest since Henry VIII.

THE FTSE Aerospace and Defence Index closed at an all time high on Friday. As the value of big players demands ever higher PE ratios, I must conclude that this sector (defence) will eventually see investors, left behind with their crass ESG fad, pilling in and causing a tide which lifts all boats...including the minnows.

Just to explain to shareholders not so long in the tooth with HW.

Early 2022, the fcast was for around £50m 22 and £100m in 23.

Then a bombshell at the time of figs released that revenues would be way below fcast but mainly due to carry over. So, around £20m of revenues for 22 were now in 23. .but no upward adjustments to 23 fcast...hhm strange....then this announcement that they are likely to miss the £100m fcast which should have been easily achieved given the £20m carry over...so the excuse is once again that revenues will probably be carried over...if that were the case, why has 2024 fcast not been raised to reflect 23 revs delayed. I am still optimistic that the plan will work but as i stated at the last two investor events...JW is very poor at managing expectations.

If £20m was carried over from 22 and 23 comes in at say £85m...then my constant gripe with the company...that they are constantly putting the cart (spending) way ahead of the horse (revenues) is more evident.

The constant promise and dissapointment of the funding package is just another example.

We are supposed to hang around whilst the BoD invest a small value of the sizeable packages they have earnt in the past 4 years. Share the pain. Be more honest!

Stokey. Sounds like Aruns bull crap, just like the 2022 statement of failure. Just so dissapointed as i was really expecting maybe a beat of 2023 fcast or an increase in the 2024 fcast.

bubble...4 years of going to agms, investor meets and an appledore visit...all spewing fantastic stories of whats to come. im afraid this has really angered me. i thought for once in those 4 years they would deliver what they promised. nope. whats annoying is clearly some knew in advance. thats what ****es me off as well

Given 2022 was a huge miss from guidance and revenues delayed into 2023, this is a huge disappointment to me. By saying £80-100 they are setting us up for low £80s. Given revenues from 2022 are in here along with £25m upfront FSS payment...the outcome is very poor. So many LinkedIn post boasting of important people visiting the site, going to trade shows and political rallies...but where is the bloody business. 50% of coastal fabrication footprint but bugger all but missed forecast after missed forecast...rant over.

South Korea has come to the UK in a big way. £500m to establish a production facility in order to take advantage of the significant investment just on the horizon in the North Sea.

Makes HW debt look positively cheap for four high quality fabrication facilities.

Correct Synoogold..this announcement was triggered by.the approach made to Isle of Scilly. It is purely a regulatory requirement, nothing more.

If i was putting the deal together, i would offer 50% cash to the value of current shares eg last trade around £4 per share cost £6m ...50% in HW stock at 13p with a one year lock in. Then, offer all HW shareholders a 20% discount voucher for say 3 trips a year (providing minimum holding). Yes, all shareholders. Most existing will never take it up but it will endure most of the islanders retain their holdings in perpetuity.

It is not unusual for companies to offer shareholders special rights.

Given that around 60% of shateholders are islanders, the companies recent roadshows make sense. Get them on board, offer a good price and a promise of faster cheaper travel and there is a good chance it will succeed.

Stokey. I believe the shares were issued in Oct 2020 at £5.00.

In a rush to post i missed some detail. I think gross profit in this fiscal is more like £4m. I think the dividend was not paid to retain monies ahead of the capital cost of the new builds. They paid a 15p dividend in 2022. There was a corporation tax costs but this was offset resulting in no liability. HW would still have no corporation tax liability. The company also has fixed assets of several million, buildings etc. Paying a 100% premium would still make sence in the long run especially if they get to build the ships.

Makes sense in financial terms.

If they offer a 50% premium for the shares at say £6per share. It might cost £9m to acquire the company which has £14m cash in the bank and makes £7m annual profit. Remember we have histrorucal losses so that profit comes at full gross...but i note they have not paid corp tax on previous year so not sure of why.

They paid no dividend so shareholders might enjoy the capital gain. Gets us in the ferry business at no cost but adds positive cash flow...dont knock it

Scaffman. The primary reason for closed prtiod is to stop insider dealing...not that it ever did in my experience. The question is, why has the BoD not bought more shares as they have had plenty of opportunities. Given the SP is down around 60% since i started investing 4 years ago, i guess they were right not to believe the many, many statements of optomism (they gave) which we have all been subject to.

My real issue is why no share buy back?

Why no employee, tax advantageous share ownership scheme?

Covid must have had a huge impact on the companies development as it came just at the wrong time. Now that revenues are gaining momentum, it does feel like there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

A company struggling for cash would not be going gun ho hiring people at all levels of the pay spectrum. Second half 2023 revenues should be around £75m

which keeps the ball rolling. 2024 revenues are building nicely and investment in the yards, particularly Belfast continues at a pace.

A little more patience needed.

someone really wants these shares to close on there ****. its a mystery to me why someone should be unloading so mych stock down here. guess all will come clear in the fulness of time. good weekend everyone.

Bubble...totally correct, the Chancellor will reveal all next Wednesday, my poor comms.

Plus, reading it back i did not spell check...poor all round really. Currently sitting in back of class with hat on carrying a big D!

Once again, the under valuation of UK small caps proves too tasty for preditors to ignore. Two more companies fall prey with Mars buying Hotel Chocolat Group for a whapping 170% premium and Youngs brewery buying City Pubs for a 50% premium.

2023 has seen 33 companies announce acquisitions adding to the reduction of UK listed companies, which has totalled 13% in the past 5 years.

How cheap are AIM stocks to FTSE companies?

5 years ago, AIM on a price to sales ratio was trading at a 40% premium...it is now at a 64% discount.

The chancellor needs to add incentives to change the investing environent. Open ended funds focusing on UK investment have seen 36 straight months of funds withdrawl.

LSE, a agree good news and if the chancellor announces the "Grate Grid Upgrade" today, maybe the energy connectivity can be accelerated to use the potential of offshore energy.