Member Info for Lottie123

Si...totally agree about the covering of the sophisticated sonar,radar and weaponry. The right hand side of the dry dock is the finishing side with stores and small engineering facility. The left-hand side (looking out to the sea) is the laying down side with the huge steel cutting and shaping plant. There is an interesting steel bed which was used to shape the bulbus bows of the new aircraft carriers. Steel deliveries come in from doors on that side .

HMS Quorn for Lithuania and the donor ship HMS Atherstone

I think you need to look at sector rotation to understand the SP rise. Since October 27th both the AIM 100 and the FTSE Real estate indices have risen 10%. Without doubt, the primary driving force is the reversal of interest rate expectations. The 15 year gilt yield has dropped from a high of 5% on that date, to 4.67% today. Thats a major move.

On the same day, stocks such as Kingfishet (B&Q) and heavy engineer, Balfour bottomed out and have bounced nicely.

As an addition to my previous post about the AIM index low point on 27th October. The same day saw a low point for the FTSE Real Estate Index (-35%) and a high (in yield but low in price) for the 15 year Gilt yield. Lets hope this is an inflection point where institutions rotate back into our world.

As a side, the FTSE Aero/Defence Index hit a new high today. BaE big driver of that.

Last week saw the index hit its 52 week low, down 30% over that period. This low roughly corresponds with the 2013 and Covid low of early 2020.

Once markets had rallied out of the Covid slump, the index set a new high in the summer of 2021.

The peak, around 6,500 slowly faded in the autumn of that year as inflationary fears grew. When the Bof E finally bit the bullet and raised in December 2021, the index started its long march down. The rotation by institutions, away from domestic, usally high debt companies, saw the market decline nearly 50% top to bottom...if last week was the bottom???

With European inflation yday and the UK shop data today, it is clear that ex conflict/energy, inflation is crashing back to earth. Hopefully, this marks the end of tightening and given the tripple low of the index, might we start to see the first buds of a reversal of that rotation back into smaller companies.

I have around 20 filtered post in last 24 hours. Why would anyone not filter these morons. Learn the lesson...filter and just be left with informative thought provoking posts we can all enjoy.

As Del boy would say..."This time next year....

Chris...dont be so cheap!! He he

Stokey...in my many years of mis-pricing contracts the reason for my poor costing was... factor X.

In other words...the unknown. Until you start breaking ground or dismantling, you have no idea what unforseen issues will arise. Just ask Hs2 management. They know a thing or two about raising estimates or the builders of the Scottish Parliament. Lets not talk about the Scottish ferry fiasco

Good update from JW which hinted at further updates in Q4 of new cruise bookings plus we anticipate, according to brokers Cavendish (formerly Cenkos), an additional barge contract...should these additional revenue streams be confirmed the 2024 revenue backlog would be nearing the forecast £200m.

What are the chances that the forecast is raised? Even a guidance of £200-230m would be significant because it raises the spectre of positive EBITDA and cash flow.

Yes, i know i am looking through (sea) rose tinted glasses but hey ho, ive been waiting four long years

LSE03. Good article. It highlights that the American investor is spending £300m into one port. HW have negligible debt considering they have 4 newly refurbished facilities plus a £1bn order book.

Nice post re US investment Synoogold.

Today saw the UK and Europe release their respective PMI data.

These show the current and prospective performance of both the industrial and service sector.

Weakness across the board has led many commentators to believe they signal recession in both areas.

Since the Bof E started raising interest rates, small and medium stocks have underperformed larger companies by around 30%. This is a normal reaction due to the domestic nature and debt profile of the smaller companies.

Today economic data point to the next move being down...in my opinion...If the wider market starts to come to that opinion, we should expect portfolio rotation to benifit smaller companies. Of course, it will not float all boats...see what i did there...but lets hope it floats a shipbuilder...

Can i ask why reasonably minded intelligent people would continue to read posts from individuals who clearly have no interest in informative, beneficial posts which we can debate.

The filter button is there for a reason. Whilst i no longer see the details from the 10 posters i have filtered, i do get pointless replies from people who are agitated by what they read because they refuse to filter. If we all filtered, thereby not relying, these individuals would soon get bored. By rising to the bait, you are perpetuating the endless, often offensive, posting.

Why waste your and my time?

Start filtering.

Cenkos did tentatively take the Sea Rose into their fcasts but confirmation gives them a more sure footing for their BUY note in September. They also refer to the expectation of a further barge contract (which makes the refent announcement of a tug purchase more relevant) and the hope that the new offices in Southampton and Miami will soon be producing cruise wash and brush ups.

If we now believe the 2023 and 24 revenues fcasts are nailed on...do we dare start to believe JWs £500m revenue projection??? Thats the biggy now. £200m gets to break even. Above that, we need to talk of net profits and who knows...dividends

It may influence Cenkos to update their forecast. The real positive will come if Liberum, the second shop broker appointed in last 12 months, sees this contract as the threshold to write their first HW research note. Liberum are far more institutionally focused than Private sharehloder Cenkos.

With £10m of the contract revenues in fy 23, the £100m forecast for full year 2023 looks all but done. Revenues for 2024 now total around £150m vs fcast of £200m. This target now looks very achievable and helps with the expectation of balanced cash flow which has been a concern for a long time. Well done to the HW team, yet another milestone reached.

Synoogold...well done. I agree. I am hoping the company have held back the contract confirmations until this, probably to be expected, appeal was lodged. Hence, no further bad news then the LoI, funding and potentially additional contracts eg barges? Cruise?

Xenor...i have been watching that 25k block buyer. I have just bought 50k at 11.48 to move things along

Stokey. Yes, it was to be a training ship for cadets, that got binned. Then various uses bounded about but recently, talk of Lithuanians wanting another mine sweeper so could be used as hull for that. Who knows. Like everything, we are taunted with wonderful upbeat expectations, only to be totally ignored. If the company have money to burn on projects and really believe in the future they paint, they should buy back stock at this level. At least initiate an employee shareholder tax incentive programme. Too much to ask whilst swanning around political arenas

I see JW has posted about mental health day and how the company takes it seriously...well for a start, they could announce the long awaited debt facilty and LoI confirmation, that would certainly help with mental health. . of the bloody shareholders.