Member Info for Lottie123

Si...i totally agree. This so called fabrication company with its 50% footprint of coastal capacity have not signed a meaningful contract all year. This cods wallop of an announcement is just a smoke screen. With four yards and a much bigger payroll, the absence of work is very concerning. Nearly four years into the 5 year and very little to cheer about for investors. The management need to do much better. Stop messing about in, non focus, cash draining games and get the revenues moving.

Ireland is one of only two EU countries to have a budget surplus, Cyprus being the other.

The government is due to announce next years budget on Tuesday and it is widely expected to approve significant extra spending on infrastructure which has been a greatly underfunded, important national asset.

Additionally, at the EU summit in Spain this week, the Taoiseach made a speech in which he stated the budget would include supports, including energy.

Whilst this will undoubtedly relate to support for consumers, investment in the long term energy security of the country cannot be ruled out. With a budget surplus and a debt to GDP ratio of only 40%, sizeable spending for investment purposes would appear very possible and not imprudent.

Who knows, maybe gas/hydrogen storage and or support for wind farms etc

Rumelt. The Irish joined the EU because they could get huge free handouts which allowed them to bring the country out of the dark ages. Much of that money came via UK payments to the EU.

The tax rate is a con but yes, as you say it is for a sovereign nation to decide. The fact is, much of the revenues Ireland receives was genersted by companies business in the UK.

As for defence, be serious, Ireland needs to spend a fair amount to defend its shores. Relying on the UK is nothing to do with schools, if the UK were not so defence minded, this conversation would have been in German ya

Rumelt. So if i get what your saying, the Irish government are happy to side with the EU to bash the UK, happy to have a corporation tax rate which sucks revenue out of the UK....but leaves the defence of its sea to...the UK. Hhhmmm sounds like a good deal...for them

The new minister for defence has stipulated that 3% of gdp should be a target for defence spending. This is a positive step. He is also talking of using the Navy in the Black sea. Moving in the right direction.

As a side issue relating to the Isles of scilly ferry. The debt facility the steam ship company have in place to build the next generation ferry would be based on cash flow assumptions of a company that holds a monopoly over the route. This ability to dictate fares is reassuring to the bankers. If that monopoly is then threatened by a third party, one who could potentially utilise substantial government funding, then projections of inflation plus fare rises become highly unlikely. This potential flaw in revenue is more than likely to lead to a suspension of the debt facility until such times as the threat to its monopoly is withdrawn. A game of chess is clearly in play.

Backc@ck share price was up 10% at the start today following strong revenue guidance. It has since settled to a 5% gain having hit a three year high earlier.

Institutions who shunned the sector (due to ESG preferences) are still very under weight the defence and old industrial players. The more expensive these big boys get in terms of PE, the more attractive the undervalued minnows become.

Only time will tell if that ripple down effect becomes a reality. We can only hope.

Yes Kaeran, another professional with a proven track record would be nice but they are spending like a kid in a candy store as it is. Maybe when they breach £200m revenues, it will be a must.

I forgot to add on my previous post...re the accrued losses, lets say they are £150m by the end of 2024.

Net revenues will be near to covering all costs end 24...the order book will still be large and the tangible assets worth a few hundred million (once all refurbishment and new machinery installed)...on top of that, any potential suitors (profitable) will be able to release the value of the losses, which at the current corporation tax rate of 25%, is worth (crudely) £37m to them.

So at some point there will be, providing the revenues are on target, a company which cannot resist this ripe fruit.

One would presume a potential suitor would have significant cash flows capable of paying down the debt or at least reducing the servicing cost significantly...another major plus...

To sum up, by end of 24, it would be possible to buy the company for free if you paid 30p.

Why, the assets value would be worth at least the fcast debt. The company would just be turning profitable and at a bid price of 30p you would get the entire cost back in tax relief.

Simples

Hebridean. No company starts out making money. I have seen tech companies valued at billions which have never made money.

Buying 4 run down, significant industrial sites was always going to require significant investment. Much of that loss you speak of has gone into building/fitting out and purchasing freehold. You cant make an omelette with breaking a few eggs. Yes, i admit the costs are far ahead of my expectations but the facilities are going to be state of the art. How much do you think it would cost to buy such huge industrial capacity off the shelf? Far more than the combined losses and debt position. Providing revenues grow as per fcast eg £100, £200, £350, £500m...all will be good. I fully expected the LoI to be signed within a week or two which would virtually gtee 2024 target. I have heard talk of further barge contract(s) as well.

The UK has for so long under invested in engineering that it needs huge sums to compete with overseas rivals.

Lets not forget...When HW becomes profitable...those losses become an ASSET...tax deductible.

Yes, hebridean i own that statement and it was proven totally wrong. I presumed the JR would be follwed by detailed plans. Wrong and the SP reflects that. I remember when you joined the board as a result of the Arnish investment. Your scepticism since then has been well founded. Not sure where you go from here but having sold out why keep on with the bashing of management. Arnish is employing and has potential so should be happy.

In the cold light of day, last night changed nothing. Shareholders are once again having to be satisfied that the future is going to be great but the rose tinted glasses are getting a bit rusty.

Having badly missed the 2023 revenue forecast (with 2022 revenues differed) the 2024 hinges on the £65m LoI coming to fruition.

My question about 2024 debt projections of £155m was explained away with fresh investment. I am very concerned, as i have told the board face to face, that they are constantly putting the cart (costs) far ahead of the horse (revenues).

The debt facility has been talked of and promised continually over nearly 12 months.

The share price reflects all that is wrong with a company which has so much promise but also, continually disapointed investors, failing to meet projected targets on time. We are once again being asked to hold tight because the phone is ringing off the hook.

Yes, HW has amazing potential but it gets very tiresome when so many of us have lost a great deal of money over several years listening to JW talking of great opportunities but never of the enormous costs (debt or equity) required to achieve his dream.

Maybe it was naive of me not to think that buying bankrupt yards could generate revenues without investment but the sheer level of spending (£300-£400m) is just mind blowing and the revenue growth should be higher...given that sort of spending.

My estimate of spending is the combination of debt (£155m end 24, £75m FSS upgrade, £50m pa costs base).

Nobby. The following are filtered so i dont see the tosh they post. If everyone stopped seeing and thus replying, they would get bored and move on to another site.

Consuela. Teletim65. Donotpanic. Gusto1. Biker888.

Aimgambler122. POGGERZ. BlairPeach. TheDogFather. Broomtree and very pos hebridean if he keeps on.

Not sure where they will produce but following the tie up with the Swedes and the concerns surrounding the IM ruling...we now have ... a salt and battery issue on our hands. Were doomed Captain Wood, were doomed.

I have 10 of the stupid posters filtered. If you all do the same, we need never know what they are saying and we can get on with an informative community.

Hebridean9...it would also be a great time to announce a 20% stock buy back. Debt in a rapidly growing company is far better than equity finance. £100m of debt to fund 4 very significant, recently refurbished, partly freehold facilities is nothing if revenue growth is maintained. Yes, it is imperative they hit the targets for 23 and 24 to stop cash burn and that is what i will be looking for monday. The finance package will arrive and allow further modernisation into a state of the art fabricator. It has been a long road for some of us but the apical shoots of growth are emerging from several directions. Why would you dilute now? Makes no sense.

Si...I remember Arun saying that the lions share of investment would be equipment but given the new buildings its impossible to say what the percentages are. They say they will be the most advanced build operator so that must included substantial NCMT machinery, thus cutting labour costs dramatically.

Jabido...difficult to say as Belfast is not a freehold asset. Funding from the FSS contract, levelling up fund and the landlord pays for the upgrade, mostly Belfast. Therefore it is not a capital spend inflating tangible assets with the building spend but it is with the machinery upgrades. Unless we know the breakdown, its difficult to say. We have all seen some building work going on but until we see a formalised balance sheet, we will not know what the asset value upligt will be. Normally, the purchases would be amortised over many years but as we are not paying for the bulk of upgrades, its very difficult to say with any certainty...i guess thats clear as mud, sorry

kaeran...re your 13:02 comment "cart before horse"...my point is, we are expected to accept every excuse resulting from retrospective abundant spending. stock markets are about expectations. jw and team have never been ahead of the curve and stated these huge spenting levels were needed so far up front. following the hugely disappointing 2022 figures which were a mile away from guidance...again...we were told revenues had shifted to 2023. with very good reason, expectations were that they would fall in 1h 23...we have had several investor meets and pod casts since disastrous 22 figs and each and every one oouzed positivity. he and the company need to stop blowing smoke up our rectums and give us solid guidance we can hang our hat on. yes, we get it, hw has a £1bn order book but not once has anyone stated the ramp up of costs would be so significant...opening offices up and down the country plus overseas, smacks of cart horse. the new finance package was first talked about autumn last year. it has been expected then delayed each and every quarter. i can totally get why some investors no longer trust a word he says. brokers are telling clients the company desperately needs cash, yet they venture into the ferry business withont any communication to investors that justifies it. yes, i am still very optimistic but yes, very ****ed off that we have, for several years, been told there is gold at the end of the rainbow. the board need to step up and buy more for themselves. start an employee share ownership scheme and if they have spare cash, buy stock back and not venture into new business, especially when a few of the 5 current business mix are nowhere near performing, just huge cash drains. rant over...still happy to be invested but as a long term shareholders we must show dissension from time to time. have a great weekend everyone.

Not sure what i will see first...the second coming or a HW report that does not say...sorry, yeah but yeah but. At an investor meeting some while back i asked if the company were not putting the cart before the horse with such high spending vs so low revenues. Difficult to question this mornings price movement. We all wondered why the great IM news was sold into so aggressively. Now we know. Looks like some parties were ahead of the information curve...or they just took a gamble on another, very sorry but jam tomorrow statement.

Lets hope all the numerous prospective contracts come to fruition. Still heavily invested and will stay that way...

So the share price is still languishing at 15.5p even after all the good news of late. As to why, my only conclusion is the lack of visability. Firstly, the company issued a bolt out of the blue regarding Isles of Scilly ferries. Whereas we were all hoping for a straight build contract, they announce they are getting into the ferry management business. Given where they are with cash flow and needing to focus on their core businesses, a few of which are desperately struggling, this looks bizarre. Yes, they may have a trick up there sleve but this adds to confusion.

Secondly, we have been told time and again over several years that IM is shovel ready. With that ringing in our ears, i think it only right to have expected an announcement almost immediately post the JR win...what have we got? Silence. This is my first post which questions how the management are operating. Yes, they may well be preparing to pull multiple rabbits out of a hat but the lack of clarity explains (in my mind) why we still languish not far from the all time lows despite the future still looking positive.