Member Info for Lottie123

I have a friend in shipping and he has informed me that the works carried out by HW were cosmetic and structure, nothing to do with the propulsion or electrical system. Nothing in relation to this incident has any bearing on the work carried out. We can all breath easy and focus on the IM legal challenge starting tomorrow.

Xenon, I totally agree it should have a higher market cap but institutions are shunning a) UK companies and b) old world industries. Whilst cash flow is negative, as it will be again this year, the mkt cap is blowing in the wind. Until solid evidence emerges of revenue breaking £200m+ next year, it will be like trying to run in a bog. Previous years promises have been allowed to just vanish. Credibility is a hard won medal and at the moment JW and team are still saddled with their past over optimism. I am a solid supporter of the company but my original investment some years ago was with my heart. I now see it with my head and a share price still 50% lower than my early days.

Sorry, 2025 forecast of £500m not 2024 as I stated. Just proof reading. 2024 fcast is £c250m...both of which are hopes but need clarity of contracts which, by their nature, have a long lead time.

Hi Xenor. The FSS is not, in my opinion, the holy grail. It will deliver the solid platform for investment, yes but as for net profit, no. I guess revenues per annum during its construction will be around £175m. This alone will not cover the running costs of the business. Until Methil and Arnish bring in any meaningful contracts, they will dilute any FSS profits. We all hope that wirly gig contracts start in the latter part of this year. For now, the company has costs of around £50m pa which will only grow. The revenue forecast for 2024 of £500m is, without contract news in next three months, not easy to believe. I asked why 2023 revenue estimate was missed so badly at the recent investor meet but got no satisfactory answer. JW needs to keep building credibility before investors take his rose tinted muses as gospel.

It is the last trading day before the legal challenges goes to court. Would you prefer to be, as a market maker, short of one million shares at 17.5p...or long of one million at 17.5p.
If it goes with the tree huggers, I guess the SP will see 13-14p. If it is a resounding victory for common sense, I would expect to see 30-35p fairly quickly. It seems the risk return is biased on being long. Let's see how supply demand pand out today but any new buying would be like pushing on an open door to higher levels.

With only 10 trading days to a potential decision on IM, I cannot see a market maker (worth his salt) allowing his book to be short ahead of it.
Given the potential to influence the valuation of the company by a significant percentage, the win loss ratio is against being short. Yes, if the legal process gives the can a further kick down the road, we will see a sigh and maybe a few pence lower.

I have talked about peak oil in the past, with a few questioning my reasoning. A few most recent snippets of data make me feel the OPEC cut will fail. Chinese port loading for last few weeks have shown a, as yet, unexplained fall. This will lead to weaker trucking in the important US market. Indeed, US truck mileage in recent weeks has fallen. 70% of China's diesel usage is trucking as is 80% of US. Diesel consumption forecasts are now being lowered for 2023. Russia is likely to be cheating as are other OPEC members. Saudi have committed vast sums of money into infrastructure projects and cannot afford to be undercut by cheating members. If demand falters, they will need volume above all else.

Yes you are correct Sam. Apologies

A few notes from the investor presentation.
No cash raise.
Looking to deepen main Dock to 14 mtrs re larger cruise requirements.
Guide 2025 revenues still £500m
Cash break even 2024. I mentioned that previously we were led to believe that would be 2023...hey ho
24 live cruise enquiries
15 further barge enquiries
IM value now far greater (multiples) than 2-3 years ago
Debt facility of £200m used to repay £80m Riverstone and £120m for future, however Riverstone get to keep their cheap options...aggghh
Debt facility is, if my memory serves, 70% government guaranteed, 20% banks and 10% private institution.
No explanation as to the 2023 revenue miss given previous guidance same as now but with 2022 deferred revenues and £25m from FFS...New guidance is apparently a walk in the park so I believe a potential exists to beat nicely.
HMS Atherstone no longer for sea cadets...ambiguous answer as to its future but may include renewed to previous use as minesweeper...
No explanation as to institutions selling out.
No explanation as to Methil future which I proclaimed a disaster zone to date. Talked of Scottish government insistence on local content and Methil/Arnish well placed. Wait and see I guess.
The acceleration of enquiries mentioned in earlier communications has been maintained and in some divisions, seeing further accretion.
If positivity was a food, I and the assembled audience, could have feasted til dawn.
It was the biggest show of interested parties I have seen in several previous BoD meets.
That in itself gives me optimism.

As a side issue. Pre IM or any other big announcements, the only way this share price of going north, is if an army of small shareholders does the heavy lifting. UK institutions, pension companies/investment trust etc, have abandoned UK plc. That is down to an appaling lack of government incentives (actual disincentives to invest) appaling regulatory demands (many woke and EU originated) and the threat of a Labour government.
One result of this mass exodus, which has left UK markets significantly under valued vs global markets, is a bidding frenzy by the sharks picking off the carcass. There have been around 14 companies bid for in 2023, mainly by fast money corporate raiders.
The company,HW, needs to...Tell SID!
If your old enough, you will know what that means.

Sam, I think a bit of a grilling putting it mildly, I thought I gave them both barrels last night. Several years of frustration came out as I highlighted the numerous promises on targets, revenues or otherwise, that have been missed or just let dissappear into the ether.
I was not going to waste 6 hours of my time and sit there listening to jam tomorrow for the umpteenth time.
That said, I am still very happy to be excessively invested in a company which has, Real potential to grow, Real potential to change peoples lives (in the regions) for the better and Real potential to put ship building back on the map in places it has long been forgotten.
I will write up my detailed notes later today. As a take away, debt/finance is not a problem and the phone is ringing off the hook. Will be buying more.

Who is going tonight? So far just Chrisatrdg has put his hand up. Stokey, I met you at an EGM a few years back as we are both London area...you coming?

I have mentioned previously, the UK undervaluation compared to overseas markets, especially the US.
The discount is starting to create more interest from predators, with two FTSE 250 companies revealing takeover interest this week. It is possible that either a significant flow of bids will emerge, or the government does something to attract British investing institutions back to our shores...thus protecting domestic companies and floating all boats market capitalisation.

I will also attend Monday. It will be the fourth time of meeting management over several years. I have questions of my own but of course, if they reveal some positive updates, they may be answered upfront. Here's hoping. No one in their right mind will call an investor update to talk about a bleak outlook. It is just if they put meat on the bone or, as usual, promise a smorgasbord of promises.
Look forward to meeting some of you.

Oil is finished due to The Pony Express.
The Saudis (OPEC) tried to pull the rabbit out of the hat last week by cutting supply. Normally, this would have led to a big spike in prices. Whilst oil rallied from recent lows, its response was far from convincing.
It now appears to me that oil is now at its peak and will never return (unless serious war or global social unrest emerges) to its ability to starve demand, pushing prices way above $100 per barrel.
Why? China. As the world's biggest importer of oil, some 11 million barrels a day, the country knows it cannot wage war against the west because this dependency would be its achillies heel. China is growing its green energy sector at a much faster pace than anyone ever forecast.
To help reduce its oil dependency further, Electric Vehicles (EV) sales are literally going through the roof. Sales of petrol/diesel vehicles are falling a dramatic year on year pace of around 25%, with EV now accounting for a third of all new passenger vehicles. To help drive this, garages now offer to swap batteries instead of having to wait and charge your car...just like the Pony Express where riders would get a fresh horse at staging posts.
The top selling EV costs around £22,000 whilst the second best seller is just £4,000...yes 4k.
Oil is finished as the world's primary energy source.

It's not important but maybe highlights tax implications. The last time HW registered 5 consecutive green up days (other than the 5 just gone) was from the 5th April, 2022.

Stokey, I can see Karen's post.

I will be attending the presentation. Having been to several and visited Appledore in the last few years, I am optimistic this has been timed to set out the route to profitability. It has been a long, sometimes very stressful, journey since I first invested but much that has been promised, has been delivered. What we need is a bit more flesh on the bones re funding, IM and when we might finally get some wirly gig infrastructure business. Methil is the one plant not currently pulling its weight. However, Scotwind has the potential to change all that. Mid to late 2023 should see contracts being signed. I look forward to meeting the team again and hopefully some positive insights.

Lucky Mrs Roy!

Resistance at 17.5p is now a huge barrier but a significant springboard should it be breached and close above.

On reflection, the primary focus of these funds is renewable infrastructure storage eg hydrogen and battery. It still has importance for HW as IM is hydrogen potential

Sorry it linked wring article

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-29/uk-infrastructure-bank-to-invest-200-million-for-energy-storage?srnd=premium-uk&sref=RCarYcNx&utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=mobile_web_share