Member Info for Lottie123

Stokey. Yes, at the AGM, JW alluded to 4 imminent contracts. I am still led to believe these are close. I am relaxed as to a week or two either way. The 2022 revenue projection, with the new docking in Belfast, look assured. I have no reason to believe 2022 forecasts are anything other than very Conservative

Xenor. You are making some big assumptions there. Having been a jobber, market maker and a sales trader, I am fully aware of churn. That said, to churn, you need supply and demand. I am not saying all the volume is investor buy and sell. However, I do think that a large portfolio (s) have divested this week and how that supply has been consumed, I can only guess. I hope, that a large investor is building a stake.
Given the huge decline in UK focused stocks in 2022, see the 250 and Aim Index, several analysts are calling the bottom.

It would appear, given the distinct likelihood that 2022 revenues will hit the £65-75m target and that the 2023 target of £130m, looks easily achievable...that the companies future is not in doubt.
The only question remains, when will it turn profitable. At the AGM I asked about staffing level which appeared ahead of the revenue curve and the company stated that significant revenue generation would not require further (white collar) costs. This implies that once turnover is north of around £100-120m we should see blue sky. It may be some time until we see dividends but the future is now assured although, with much work to be done. At £10m market cap (c. 160m shares) the risk of 6p looks worthwhile and very compelling.

If I were management of HW I would be concerned by the volume this week. Now upwards of 35m. Over 20% of company.
That is mind blowing.

With nearly 30m shares traded this week (incl market maker to market maker trading) vs 160m in issue...something is happening. Amongst othe conclusions must be, someone is selling a reasonable stake but on the other hand, someone is buying a stake.

Interesting that JW stated in the video, that recent events in the UK gas storage saga, namely we don't have any (2%) has increased IM value by as much as two to three times. Cenkos put a value on it of £25-50m earlier in the year...if I'm not mistaken. Wow, that would blow the dust off my significant losses. Roll on November. Lots to be super optimistic about.

UK and European gas prices have collapsed now that the storage facilities are all but full. The warm weather has meant a glut.
UK price peaked at £6.50 per therm (when the inflation scaremongering took hold) this year and is now near the years low at £1.80...Still high but not worryingly.
Steel, copper, aluminium all continue to decline.
Expect a big reversal in the annual inflation numbers at the turn of the year.
Next months UK rate rise is, in my opinion, nearing if not being, the top.

Nearly 7 million shares traded this week. Where is the supply coming from. The demand is very welcome and apparently, on going...but the question must be...who is supplying the odd millions at these levels?

Speedy. My understanding is the HW get around £600m of £1.6bn contract. It enables them to be part of but not the controlling partner, of the contract. It will provide a major stepping stone towards full build capability. If the other bidder gets it, I believe the sub- contract value is around £300m over 5 years. That would blow us into profitability by late 2023

Let's not loose sight of the fact that the Aim market is down 36% this year and JW implied at the AGM that as many as four contracts will be signed ...I think he said...by end October. They also mentioned the expectation of docking for servicing.

You are right, the SP has been pressured with most trading on the buy side, by small shareholders, with block selling by major holders. Have just added at 7.09...again. I guess there is a price when it bottoms but catching a falling knife is dangerous. We always said that one who picks bottoms gets ****e on one's fingers...

Various spot and forward gas markets dropped sharply today and are now down to the levels last seen in April. With prices c50% down from the highest point this year, it would seem inflation expectations should soon be lowered.

Chrisatrdg...70% of today's trades were buys. This has been a familiar pattern for weeks. Very strange trading environment in this stock but that is not unusual. It has been difficult to explain for a long time. It is, in my opinion, being manipulated. The company seems not to be concerned nor their appaling choice of shop broker...Cenkos. hey ho. Hopefully, the economic reality of winning contracts (fingers crossed) will bring its rewards for our patience.

Chrisatrdg...70% of today's trades were buys. This has been a familiar pattern for weeks. Very strange trading environment in this stock but that is not unusual. It has been difficult to explain for a long time. It is, in my opinion, being manipulated. The company seems not to be concerned nor their appaling choice of shop broker...Cenkos. hey ho. Hopefully, the economic reality of winning contracts (fingers crossed) will bring its rewards for our patience.

The island of Ireland is beginning to wake up to the 1,000+ wirly gigs it needs and it's lack of capacity to supply.
The UK meanwhile, under the control of Kwasi Kwik Kwik is speeding up the process for infrastructure projects including Scotwind. All this demand is being met with equal enthusiasm from the EU and further afield. Supply worries are now beginning to emerge.
2023 is the year of mass infrastructure/ fabrication. I hate to say it but even H&W cannot fail to hit the bullseye. Hopefully, the last few years buying and updating the various fabricating facilities will now pay enormous dividends for those with the balls to keep with the management vision.
https://www.offshorewind.biz/2022/09/26/breaking-uk-puts-massive-amount-of-new-offshore-wind-capacity-on-fast-track/

https://www.rechargenews.com/wind/offshore-wind-developers-need-a-serious-supply-chain-rethink-to-profit-in-the-coming-boom/2-1-1316768

Just made small top up...bought at 9.06p...Clearly, the market still has stock for sale

Sod it...BASF...fat finger

Pokerchips...gas prices were unrealistically elevated due to the rush by EU countries filling their massive storage capacity, way ahead of the normal schedule and to a greater volume than recent years. Most countries are close to 100% now, thus they have around 3months of demand stored.
Companies like NASF who's facility at Ludwigshafen, which uses more power than the whole of Switzerland or Belgium, has switched from producing energy demanding products like ammonia...to importing it from the likes of Saudi which has cheap energy...this is bending the demand curve along with countries turning off non essential lighting.

Sorry for going on...I forgot to mention...spot traded UK Natural Gas is down from 650 in August to 240...down 13% today alone. Funny how the media only talk about doom and gloom

Firstly, look at things like cotton, wheat and shipping costs. All good barometers of clothing, food and transport. Container costs rocketed to $16,000 for the Asis-US route. That's now below $4,000. Wheat and Cotton have fallen around 20% from May highs. Oil is down from $120 to $85. Natural Gas is down 30% from its August peak.
Now remember, the annual rate of inflation is the last 12 months. In October last year, prices started jumping. The October 2021 monthly CPI increase was the biggest (monthly) this century. Now when this October rate is released, it has to be bigger than 1.1% or the headline, annual rate, will drop. Yes, the energy price cap increase will upwardly affect things but the underlying inflation picture is abating. Incomes are rising, on average, around 5%. This is a natural brake on consumption (being well below inflation) aside from the interest rate rises.
The Bof E are not only raising the base rate, they have also just started unwinding QE...or QR as is now. This selling of its massive gilt portfolio will steepen the yield curve thus making term mortgage rates much higher. Most are based off the 15year gilt which has seen its yield rise from around 1% to over 4% today. That is another form of monetary tightening which sits besides base rate rises. Hence, I think we are near the base rate top. Maybe another 50-75 basis points at most.