Member Info for Lottie123

The sell off is totally in line with the charts this morning. A long term down trend from the highs c50p in 2021, comes in around 24 p. This needs to be closed above to move significantly higher. On the flip side, the 100 day moving average did cross the 200 day yesterday. This is the first time since that long term downtrend started. The moving average cross suggests the 24p level will be challenged very soon. Fingers crossed.
Ps the 100 crossing of 200 was delayed by two days die to last weeks weakness.

Gas prices continue to plunge led by the US market which is down to $2.8MMBtu from a high of 9.5. This is now below seasonal norm.
European and UK is following this sharp decline. Expect inflation to come down quicker and put pressure on central banks to halt and in some cases, reverse interest rate hikes. Great news for stick markets and high yielding bonds.

Re Killik. As a long term holder, I am aware that they purchased their stock at higher prices than they are unloading...so, why be concerned by a seller who has made substantial losses, not to mention heavy cost of carry costs. Other than the short term supply demand issue, I would not worry about them.

My last post, two days prior to the MoD signature, talked of the very short term moving averages turning positive. I am pleased to say that the very long term, 100 over 200 day, will cross by Friday, providing these levels are maintained. The 100 has been below the 200 since the company raised new shares back in May 2021. The share price was over 40p at the time. This is not a guarantee of good things to come but as Churchill once said..."it is not the beginning of the end but it is the end of the beginning"
I hope it signifies the end of the hard slog as an infant in the very tough global world of heavy engineering and the start of the mature phase...fingers and moving averages crossed.

Confirmation from China that its population fell in 2022 for the first time since the Great Famine of the last century. The working age population is now only 62% vs 70% a decade ago. This is not Covid related but part of a long term downtrend in the birth rate.
This trend is going to continue.
The impact will be felt in the labour intensive industries the most. I fully expect the regime to focus more on new tech than low tech going forward. As the labour force shrinks and the young become better educated, shipbuilding will not be the type of employment they seek. Japan is already importing labour in its shipbuilding industry as it is further ahead with population contraction. Korea likewise. These are the 3 big super powers of ship building. In time, their wage costs, long been a major positive in the low pricing of vessel construction, will accelerate much faster than the developed world. This will bring about a shift back to US and European ship yards.

Interesting observation. On the morning of the 28th December for no apparentreason, the 30min moving average crossed, 20 below 50...in the last hour, the one hour did the same...Two days later...a profit warning...
This afternoon, for no apparent reason, the 30 min moving average crossed, 20 over 50, on the upside...the one hour is close to crossing but not quite toning...
Who knows???

Speedy gonefishing. You say losses have risen over last 3 years...but you fail to mention investment over that period. The 4 facilities, purchased out of bankruptcy, have (and will continue) undergone extensive upgrades. Additionally, as mentioned earlier, once those facilities produce profits, those losses become invaluable. Lets not forget corporation tax goes up sharply to 25% soon. That, once profitability is established, puts a hefty value on those losses.
Keep calm and carry on everyone. Spring is in the air.
Gas prices in US, Europe and UK are plummeting following huge US/ Middle East supplies and warm weather. European gas storage is at record levels at this stage in a winter period.

One of the reasons I invested in Infrastrata several years ago, albeit a modest part of the overall reasoning, was that the UK will once again, following Brexit, have a large fishing fleet.
HW exhibited at several important fisheries construction fairs this year. To date, no serious business has been forthcoming but the tide may be about to turn. With the UK coastal quota agreement for 2023 rising sharply, the die is now cast for annual catch increases upto 2026, when we finally take back full control of the most productive fishing grounds in the world.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/12/20/new-quota-deal-means-british-fishermen-can-catch-30000-tonnes/

Today...The 50 day has crossed upwards through the 200 day. It last crossed downwards following the deep discounted placing at 30p in May 2021. It has remained below ever since.

CAR3y...you mentioned Bab**** earnings today...I notice that the EPS is 15p which is helping to support a SP of £2.97. For HARL to achieve an EPS of £15p they would need to show a net profit of £25m. Revenues would need to top £300m for that to come anywhere close. If all goes well, 2024 should get near that figure...fingers crossed.

Stokey. Yes, actual construction is 2025, I agree. However, massive investment (£77m) in infrastructure plus huge hiring and training (120 jobs at the design company alone) will need a series of large front end payments. It would be impossible for HW to fund it. So I guess we will have to wait and see the payment schedule in Q1.
In the mean time, the £77m investment into the yards will trigger a huge uplift in asset value.
Despite the 2025 construction phase it might be that modules will be started prior to that, to hit the ground running for the final phase in Belfast.
Happy to stay with this as there is still everything to play for.

Stokey. Always good to debate. One thing is for sure, a big contract win will help with further revaluation of assets in the balance sheet. Assets bought out of bankruptcy, put into profitable use, will be valuable.

To get a realistic, share value expectation (marker cap.) It will be important to get a revised 2023 and 24 revenue guidance, if and or when, Team Resolute win the contract. Currently, guidance for 2023 stands at £120m (vs £70m 2022). Given the potential share of the £1.6bn, is £600m. Guidance for 2023 could be raised to £200-230m. The higher volume of work will raise the cost base to £45-55m pa. At a push, it will be possible to see a small but meaningful EBITDA profit. Given accumulated losses to date, no corporation tax liability for a while...with revenues likely to grow with wirly gig demand from mid 2023, earnings for 2024 could be £15-25m.
A market capitalisation of £100m is possible in time. For now, £40-50m would be realistic...eg 25p share price.
All of the above is purely my opinion and based on hope of good times to come. None of the above allows for Gas Cavern valuation which could give a significant lift

I think constant reference to the construction element/location, ignores the very important design side of the contract. BMT are a UK company pushing forward the international boundaries of innovative designs and solutions, within the maritime and energy sector. The government's Shipbuilding white papers of recent years go to great lengths to highlight the importance of design, in UK ship construction. If Team Resolute win this contract, BMT will be a big winner, as will the young engineers/technicians they employ. Given the labour cost advantage the Asain yards enjoy (for now) our best way of regaining even a small segment of the enormous commercial shipbuilding industry, is by design innovation in the ships themselves but also in construction techniques.

Do Riverstone get to keep their cheap warrants?

If I was very confident of winning transformative contracts in the not too distant future, I am darn sure I would not do this deal, issuing yet more shares near the all time low, until the good news had a chance to be positively reflected in my market cap.

And for a crazy idea...there is a long term down trend line from December 2020 that picks up the lower highs to date. That is around 7.75p. Now that is a real trend reversal

Just to recap...7.2p is the major technical resistance. It needs a close above that to confirm this move away from the all time low. I will be happy to buy more should that happen as the next level of resistance is 9p.

The question for me is...is this selling as a result of a residual balance left with the market maker who bought the 6m or is it the balance of Appledore Lands holding, some 3m, being sold today...if it is indeed them

Stokey. Volume yday of 18m (plus very big recently) this 6m was bought multiple hands not as a placing of one lot. Given the level of volume in last few weeks, I would not be surprised if a new stake was not being built...we await news