Member Info for Lottie123

Additionally, the last note by Cenkos Cavendish forecast interest cost of around £18m in fiscal 2024. Once the funding has been agreed, they will be able to reduce that figure quite considerably, maybe back to their forecasted 2022 level of £12m.

As a quiet, eery silence surrounds the birthing of this cruise giant, it is left to us ponder on its reason for sailing all this way, especially as it is due to be in Miami in june, to start its work route for the new owners. It is public knowledge that it requires extensive work prior to that final journey to work. If per chance that work is to be carried out by HW Belfast, then at a cost of sevelal tens of millions of pounds, it would take perceived and booked 2024 revenues close to the forcasted £200m.

With my crystal ball, should this golden wished for scanario come to fruition, I perceive an upgrade to the 2024 revenues fcast to offset a dissapointment when the 2023 revenues are released. We have already been warned that due to accounting procedures, 2023 would be nearer £90m than the forecast £100m. I for one would be happy to celebrate greater revenues going forward over my disappointment of lower historic revenues.

All to play for but any upward revision to 2024 is likely to spur Cavendish to accelerate their timimg of EBITDA positivity. Maybe, just maybe, it will bring Liberum into the picture and they will finally publish a note.

£20m market cap? In all my born years, i have never seen such an undervalued company.

As a side is, i believe the government are considering re-introducing dividend tax relief for UK pension institutions. This was scraped by Gordon Brown at the start of his tenure as chancellor. It was a factor in forcing these institutions away from equities. As they have reduced their holdings from 50% (of portfolio) to 3%, the cost would be minimal for now but transformative for the grossly undervalued UK equity market.

Marybr190. Thank you for that link. I have never seen that film but i will now. Im a sucker for a bit of romance...by the way, is the £1 party Black Tie?

Fly or collapse? By the end of Jan, the downtrend from Dec 2020 which has around 8 hits on its way down from 50p, converges with the uptrend which was established by the 6p low in October 2022. This had around 6 hits.

Whilst the charts have been paychy having looking like a breakout to the upside many times...this coming together is quite rare. Something will have to give. Either the downside is broken with a close below 11p (target 6p) or the upside is broken with a close above 13.5p (target...who knows?

Chrisatrdg...could you accept my LinkedIn request please. Sorry to bother this page. PH from Romford

Stokey...go for a run or something, please. It is imiterial.

Please, stop with endless drivel!

Wyndum. Good debate. All the best.

wyndum. yes, as a fire sale, i would have to agree. the value of all its assets would not raise much past £120m...but lets look at bae and their £7bn debt of bab***** and their £800m debt. if they were loss making, how much do you think their assets would raise in a fire sale...not enough to cover debt i would wager.

this is a growing company and although they have missed some very optimistic promises, we must not lose sight of the fact that they started on the cusp of covid. even profitable mature companies suffered let alone a fresh faced start up minow.

the valuation should reglect prospective earning potential. given the growth pattern, profits should be forthcoming by early 2025. analysts are, i am quite sure, poised to write good things about hw but as ever, its all about timing...something i have got disastrously wrong with hw....and i will stay with it as i feel sure i can see a few daffodils poking above the heavy snowfall.

What is the value of HW.

Given its current mkt cap of just over £20m, is this fair value?

The company, in reality, is just starting its fourth year of operations.

The first year, purchase of 4 assets from bankruptcy (yes took 2 years)...low cost

Second year, revenues of around £25m

Third year revenues around £100m

Fourth year revenues around £200m.

Order book of £1bn with current bids (for 2023/4 business) in place of at least another £1bn (my guesstimate)

Assets. IM worth north of £50m, subject to Febs outcome.

Assets. Significant refurbishment of yards both to the fixed components eg lock gates , buildings etc plus huge investment in state of the art, high residual value machinery. The total cost of which is probably north of £150m when the current £77m programme is complete. Yes, they only own Appledore freehold but they own the high value machinery.

Demand in its target industries is without doubt, forecast to rise significantly in the next decade. This ranges from Renewable (net zero). Defence (smallest navy since Henry viii amid growing global tension). Cruise (major operators posting large share price increase on rapid post covid growth). Energy (new oil/gas licences issued in North sea first time in years) & Nuclear investment likely to grow as need for fossil alternative.

Finance. Confirmed government backing for significant debt facility which provides adequate funding in the short to medium term.

Employment. Significant senior maritime executives hired in past 12 months. Growing apprenticeship scheme firmly backed by government.

Climate. The UK (plus others) are forcing contractors to price in the climate cost of contracts. Very positive for HW given its geographical position to demand plus its green credentials.

At £20m valuation, where is the risk...yes, there is always a risk but at £20m given the above, it would appear not just negligible but almost imperceptible.

To buy a business which is clearly growing, has well defined objectives and opportunities, has low debt (£c95m currently) vs asset value. Significant order book. State of the art facilities.

Strong political backing....would cost north of £100m in my book.

Of course, thats just my opinion.

In the last two years, asian shipbuilders/fabricaters have been acquiring northern hemisphere businesses/capacity.

China, Korea, Japan have dominated shipbuilding in the last 50 years. Two factors are changing that. Firstly, they are all experiencing a huge decline in working age population. Secondly and most importantly, developed governments moving towards pricing of climate in contract negotiations. This is very important as the southern hemisphere producers are very high in fossil fuel energy generation and shipping costs over large distances..

All just an opinion

David. Welcome to my filter sin bin. You will find likeminded individuals in there and i am sure you will all get along just fine.

Https://www.linkedin.com/posts/workboat365_austal-usa-receives-expeditionary-medical-activity-7148261722271739905-UHD7?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android

the defence index hit a new high today. bab**** is the shining star up 5.5%. bank of america research note has helped.

At the weekend, the financial press will start releasing their predictions for 2024. Stock pickers will of course focus on large caps but a few will look further down the scale. With interest rates likely to decline, the focus will righly turn to the oversold domestic, debt ladened companies.

With a strong order book and funding seemingly sorted, this oversold gem may well come in for a mention.

If i were short of a company with a sub £20m market cap...which has £1bn order book, an asset (IM) worth c£50m once the legal dispute is put to bed and strong government approval for future funding...i might question just how much more i could squeeze out on the downside. HW has a future. HW will get to profitability. In which case, sub £20 mc looks too cheap.

For god sakes, give it a rest with the negativity. Ministerial permission is granted following numerous minsterial visits to site.

Funding is going ahead with a very high degree of certainty. Lowering costs and removing the need for any further dilution.

The current cash position statement is very encouraging as all previous concerns have revolved around financial difficulties of an immediate nature. Clearly, revenues are beginning to flow.

With today's US inflation beating expectations (following the UK) the stage is set for rate cuts by the spring, globally. The only fly in the ointment is The Red Sea issue. That aside, bond yields have collapsed. The 15 year Gilt yield peaked at 5% in the late autumn and has since dropped to 3.85%. The change came on Oct 27th. Since then, the UK FTSE real estate index has jumped 20% to a six month high as has the much maligned Aim index. These typically are highly geared UK companies that have been in the doldrums during the two year rate lift. They are now back in the limelight. Another index in focus is Aerospace and Defence. This finished at another all time high today. It started 2023 at 5200 and closed at 8544.

Given the significant market rotation towards high debt, UK focused companies, HW have been well left behind. We all know why.

It looks as though we have, as yet, untapped upward inertia should the news of funding come through as hoped for. With £150m 2024 revenues already in the bag, any news induced rally should be like pushing on an open door.

Wishing you all a very happy xmas and a VERY prosperous new year!

Stokey, yes mem and arts are wide in spectrum. I am not suggesting they have done anything wrong in attempting a new venture, just we are supposed to take it without the case being put. Four years of significant losses is down to me and my stupidity...i get that. But i still want the UK to give our young people a chance a real employment not just become baristas...hence i am still here believing in levelling up and a return to manufacturing

If a company wishes to navigate a channel of busuness, totally alien to its mem. and arts. focus, one would assume that the management will make a solid business case to shareholders. Investment costings, revenue expectations and risk analysis at the very least, to show the level of detail management had taken into consideration.

I am not sure if any consideration has been given to shareholders in my four years of investment.

Anyone investing in a company enters into a partnership with the BoD's. The investor takes the information made avaliable on existing and prospective revenues. Estimates the potential profitability and makes his investment given all that information.

When the expected revenues fall short, the investor is faced with losses due to market reaction (sell off) or take the excuse of unforseen difficulties at face value...and stay with it...as many of us have done on several dissapointing occasions.

Now that the company have devided to plough a new field, one completely outside of the contract with existing shareholders, an investor briefing with the afore mentioned information would be expected...but no. Suck it up

In the last 6 weeks, energy prices have dropped 30%. Thats oil and gas. Despite OPECs attempts to shore up the price, outputs from the US, Canada and Brazil are sharply higher. Demand is failing to meet expectations.

European gas storage is still around 94% and the French nuclear energy programme back to near normal after last winters problems.

It is possible to see analysts forecasting inflation below 2% as early as March next year. The decline in gas and electricity prices are starting to impact fertiliser prices. Lower transport and fertilisers will help reverse food inflation further.

Pressure is building on central banks as economic demand, a lag indicator following rate rises, is showing signs of weakness.