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Despite a broad indices decline today, the European defence sector racked up its tenth gain in a row (0.8%) to help bring up a 30% rise in 2024 to date.
Shares of Hensoldt, Dasssult, Rheinmetall and Leonardo were all positive.
The UK index has registered a similar showing. This sector performance will, at some point, float all boats as investors look for smaller players. It will not happen for HW until the sword of damacles (financing) is removed. Keep the faith and continue to load up, the direction of travel, of revenues, is good/stable. I am sure a whirly gig based order(s) will be forthcoming given the billions of investment in and around the British Isles.
Yes, that is a view through rose tinted glasses but to sell at a 10p is crazy as it just represents option money.
Butonedup.
I promise not to turn this to a political LSE board but "disgraced politician"...Lee Anderson????
The disgrace is the two parties allowing the UK to wallow in the mire whilst he was the only MP with the cahonas to say what the majority of hard working people feel.
Finding. Your review is quite correct. The FTSE started the millennium around 7,000. The Dow at around 11,500. As we can see, the FTSE is still struggling to reach 8,000 whilst the Dow is nearing 40,000.
You are totally correct in your assumption that governance has a big part to play. The avalanche of EU beauracracy weighed heavily on corporate growth. Couple this with energy costs up to 300% higher...got to love Net Zero...and the disconnected from the can do, high investment US becomes clear.
UK institutions have avoided the UK like the plague since 1997 as we have been under the rule of anti-business, socalist governments.
To break free there is only one soloution and that is a total rejection of the two party politics which has led to voter apathy but total dominance by Labour and Consocalist...for me, Voting ReformUK is only route out of this mess. They offer a new, radical alternative to the dumb and dumber rule.
So looking around, what do i see?
The FTSE making new 10 month high not far from all time high but grossly undervalued vs international markets.
BaE, Bab willey and other defence companies hitting multi year or all time highs.
Energy prices down sharly from highs with gas and electricity due to fall next month.
Inflation to hit 2% by late May.
Interest rates likeky to fall several times in 2024.
Politicians under intense pressure to raise defence spending.
Green energy spending on the cusp of an explosion in investment.
Eight continuous years of negative investment flows into UK market...unlikely to have much more to run.
UK companies being picked off by international competitors due to value.
UK companies increasingly activating share buybacks.
Given the above, once the funding is agreed...10p will look like a strange level for HW to be trading at.
As a side issue, i am fully expecting the cost of funding to be 5% above whatever base rate you care to use. Anything below that would be a bonus.
Sometime, as long term shareholders, we blame the management for the poor performance of our investment. However, it can be a bigger picture of macro economics that is at play.
Scroll down on the article below and you will find a chart whicĥ shows how the UK market has seen 8 years of negative investment flows. This is unprecedented and explains why UK markets are languishing vs international competitors. This is a trend and at some point, will snap back. Given the election year and the liklihood of a Labour victory, i guess the most recent outflows are not surprising.
For now, hold fast and if you can afford it, keep loading up at these crazy discounts.
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/london-stock-exchange-shares-ftse-100-crisis-equities-fund-outflows-b1145526.html
Stock buybacks continue at pace this week. Companies such as BAT, Balfour Beatty, Vodafone and Bodycote have announced further action to return money to shareholders by buying stock in the market, thus enhancing the return on capital. The significant discount of UK markets (vs major global indices) ensures this trend is likely to continue as the spectre of lower interest rates and a rebound of economic fortunes looms.
If only HW had money to do likewise. Given the constant management talk of sunlit uplands, you would have thought the return on such a move would be far greater than throwing money at ferry wars...hey ho
Given the dire situation of naval supply ships or should I say ship...the liklihood of a similar request to speed up the FSS programme is entirely possible.
Any such move would enhance profitability of the contract.
The MoD has put in place, a process to speed up the delivery of the Ajax armoured vehicle.
Given the dire s
https://armyrecognition.com/defense_news_march_2024_global_security_army_industry/uk_outlines_measures_to_boost_british_army_ajax_armoured_vehicle_program_delivery_rate.html
Hi Scaffman. Last years monthly inflation rates were quite high. They will drop out of the annual CPI and be replaced by much smaller figures. The April cut in energy tariffs will help inflation fall, along with negative yoy food prices, to around 2%. Its written in the stars. Todays employment stats helped bring the first rate cut to may in my book...only my opinion.
Long term holders will recall the constant reference to the downtrend chart line from Dec 2019 which has, on so many occasions, put a lid on rallies. Well, the good news is, if you extend that line out to November...it gets to ZERO!! So finally, on the fifth anniversary of bring a shareholder, i can stop watching every print, endless moronic comments (not all posts of course) ....write off a significant chunk of my wealth and move on. Ohhh happy days!
Will a rising tide float all boats?
If the FTSE closes above 7,750, it will be the highest since June last year. It could precursor an attempt on the all time high set early last year. Its undervaluation has led to increased buy backs and bids, shrinking the overall supply. Of course, unless demand picks up, this malaise may continue as institutions have pulled out additional funds this year so far.
The question is, will todays employment date help convince the BofE to cut rates. Until that prospect is widely expected on the immediate horizon, the highly geared small caps will not participate to the same degree. The Aim index still languishes way below its all time high.
I know this is not HW related but we have just witnessed a systemic change in British politics. Lee Anderson is just the start. As a prospective parliamentary candidate for ReformUK in London, i am very excited!
In a forecast last year, the company announced they expected debt to be £160m by year end 2024. I dont see what all the fuss is about. The last analysts report i read expected interest in the year to be £18m. Nothing to see here, move along.
The recent contract wins make me more confident the customer base is expanding, albeit slower than i would like but expanding it is. The trajectory is positive and I am hopeful that either the 2024 revenue forecast will be raised or the 2025 forecast will be at least £350m . It appears that three of the four operational sites are nearing a capacity utilisation rate which implies positive cash flow and not far from potential profitability. It just needs Methil to gain some traction to help the process.
The Chancellor did not help Methil with his extension of the fossil fuel winfall tax to 2029 and we can only hope the easing of new licences will offset that.
The budget had potential wider implications for the UK market. We all know that UK company valuations are significantly below international peers, this is a direct result of domestic pension companies abandoning UK listed shares for overseas. Holdings in their portfolios have fallen from nearly 50% at the turn of the century to around 3% today. I wont go into the reasoning but idiot politicians are the issue. In the budget, the chancellor made some adjustments to the ISA rules which have a minimal positive affect but more importantly, he indicated that the defined benifit pension companies will need to reveal their total percentage investment in UK companies. Many in the City believe this is the start of issuing minimum UK thresholds which could infuse billions back into the domestic market. It might be that this starts a general reversal of the long trend of under invesment. Time will tell.
Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/03/05/eu-weapons-exports-britain-russia-war-defence/
The EU commissioner for Defence Thierry Breton, has proposed that the EU cut off arms supply to the UK in a conflict to protect the EU itself. His rhetoric was very anti-British and should focus the MoD on ensuring UK production of everthing from Bullets to...ships is capable of manufacturing in scale. This should wake the government up from its rediculous policy of net zero which has decimated heavy industry, most important Steel.
The UK has gone from average or slightly cheaper energy costs in the 1980s to three times the cost of US and double most developed/ industrial EU nations.