Member Info for Lottie123

The next Bof E rate meeting is the day after the May CPI is released. I truly believe we will see a sub 2% rate which will, combined with softer economic data and as you say ECB, put significant pressure to cut. 2 of the 9 voters were in favour last month and it just needs another 3 to give the go ahead.

On Thursday, the ECB is widely expected to cut for the first time since inflation took off a few years ago.

In the UK, oil in Sterling terms is nearing it's three year low. Oil demand is not picking up as expected, in fact the US released data showing the lowest diesel demand in 26 years. OPEC is struggling with rogue nations breaking producing ceilings.

A report in UK suggests consumer spending is under a cloud following a study by Barckays credit card department.

UK inflation will fall below 2% when announced later this month.

If the ECB cuts, Sterling will push higher vs the Euro, which is a double edged sword. Yes, it will lower import costs from our biggest importer but put further pressure on our domestic exporters.

Conclusion...if they do not cut rates this month, they will fall behind the curve of Economic contraction...just as they were behind the curve of rate increases at the outset of inflation.

Thinking logically with the potential contracts and the commencement of FSS, I am expecting 2025 revenues of £350m. This would make a 3p dividend possible especially as no corporation tax will be payable on the first £5m of net income due to historical losses offset. Only my opinion of course but if it came to fruition it would represent a 35% yield at current price. Given the market trades around 4.5% yield this would imply a share price of 50p is not out of the realms of possibility.

The BofE may well cut rates next month. Today, the BRC released several important early May inflation components.

Overall shop prices were up 0.6% vs 0.8% last month and 0.9% in the previous 3 months.

Annual food prices were up 3.2% vs 3.4% in April.

Non-food prices were 0.8% lower, yes minus vs -0.6% in April.

Given the 0.7% May 2023 component will drop out of the annual CPI rate, the above numbers point to a fall back to around 1.9% May CPI vs 2.3% last month.

Sterling has been gaining ground vs the Euro and the BofE will not want to be too far behind the ECB as Sterling could rise further.

tricky matters...i'm blocking you for talking too much politics and quite frankly, total bab****

Thank you. I was at Westminster today with Ann Widdecombe, Richard Tice, Lee Anderson and Ben Habib. Sadly Nigel is not to join us but nevertheless, change is coming in British politics. 100 years of two party rule must be brought to an end.

yes, they are an excellent opportunity to get to know the company. i attended the appledore day, met the staff and found the tour of the facility very interesting. what was clear is that the place had been mostly asset stripped of anything particularly valuable after bab**** mothballed it. it just goes to show how much was needed to get this and the other three sites up and running. hence the debt accumulation. i would love a trip to belfast soon to see the huge development and any ships birthed at the time.

HSBC have issued a positive report on the UK market, moving from neutral to overweight. They suggest the big sell off by domestic pension funds has run its course. It started with Gordon Brown removing dividend tax credit but let's not go there.

The important part of Aruns LinkedIn post was his comment about annualised EBITDA breakeven by end 2024. That should totally blow away the critics that the company is about to fail.

That was then. Stop looking at June 2023. It's nearly June 2024. By the way, we won the world cup in 1966...does that mean we are still the best football team in the world?

Timkempster...no capex??? Have you been asleep for the last 5 years? The facilities have been revamped, significantly in the case of Appledore and Belfast with around £100m still being spent on Belfast and new state of the art machinery. Please, stop looking back and look forward.

The weekend will allow the situation to calm and help us all assess exactly what is happening.

Let's look at the facts.

a) the company is on target to achieve revenue growth in excess of 100% vs previous year, which in itself was in excess of 100% vs previous year.

b) £200m of revenue brings the company close to eliminating cash burn.

c) the four production facilities have been(being) refurbished with new state of the art machinery...with a value(cost) in excess of £125m

c) Appledore purchase of freehold completed.

d) order book of £1bn

e) defence spending undoubtedly has to rise and the navy, according to numerous knowledgeable opinions, is way below conflict fighting strength

f) other major shipyards have significant order backlogs

h) the government are committed to peace and prosperity in NI

i) the government have championed shipbuilding as part of levelling up as it directly impacts high unemployment communities

j) the company has an existing, if expensive debt facility until end 2024

k) the government cannot be happy with ISSG for awarding a contract to France

l) significant advanced work on the FSS ships build has been made

Sometimes, it good to see the wood for the trees. Clear the air.

Whilst the BoD have not covered themselves in glory on this. Have not updated shareholders on the business model for a ferry business...For the life of me, I cannot see why so called balanced journalism did not paint a full picture about the rebirth of this once great shipbuilder in a once great industry. It suggests to me a specific intent to focus on a particular negative, all be it an important one, ignoring the ramifications for so many young people who have finally found a future...and a damn good one at that.

If you want peace, as the saying goes, prepare for war! On that alone, we need HW and we need these young people to be able to build ships.

You da man Stokey!

I am informed that upto 400 members of staff are now shareholders. That's a huge vote of confidence.

Added 25k at 8.99p

China's collapsing property market is weighing on steel prices which are now back to their ten year average. Due to weak domestic demand, exports rose 30% in April but revenues were 10% lower. Turkey and Brazil are raising further objections relating to dumping.

With oil down and steel production, over capacity, input costs for large fabrication companies should be falling.

Stokey. I was not suggesting for one minute they sell out, just that it must be looking very attractive and many must be reviewing the potential.

Stokey is right to focus on today's meeting.

I am perplexed that a company with a billion pound order book, refurbished facilities at great expense and not insignificant tax loss asset...is not attractive to a corporate buyer at just 9p???

Yes the have £100m in debt but the fixed assets are worth more than that alone...Appledore owned freehold. It certainly is a strange world we live in. Hey ho just another day in paradise.

In times like these I am always reminded of a saying by the most respected and successful investor of all time...Warren Buffet.

"be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful"

Whilst I have been critical of the management for some time, I reaffirm my commitment to an investment I commenced five years ago this coming December (adding to it yday) ...my real anger is with the political class in this country. In neither THE US or the EU would they allow such pantomime to be played when this type of decision is to be made. No wonder we have lost 3 million manufacturing/engineering jobs in the last 3 decades or so. The Conservatives are totally inebt whilst those on the left play with underhand, quite frankly disgusting political games. We must move beyond this pantomime and get on giving young people a real chance at meaningful employment in deprived areas. One of main pillars of my support in the companies fledgling state.