Member Info for LOTM-13

Part 4 -

In summary the next 5 to 6 month's are now going to be extremely difficult for Capricorn, because of falling production, there failure to deffer D&P expenditure into 2024 & much lower cash receipts because of the EGPC than expected (that $26M lower than my forecast is hurting big time now)

If the company could turn back the clock 3 months knowing what they know now they wouldn't have gone ahead with the $97M special dividend payment. They might have paid out 50% of it instead or delayed it into 2024, citing EGPC for the delay due to the failure to pay on time & having to constantly increase the amount of working capital currently require in the meantime until its resolved.

I'm not sure how much longer they will keep going with the buy-back there is still @ $7.5M to be spent on it to reach the minimum $25M they promised shareholders. I suspect there will come a time when it is halted temporarily (until the Waldorf payment is received for example or EGPC makes a back payment covering some of the overdue amounts).

There won't be room for any new D&P expenditure until that Waldorf payment is received & its just as well they've cut G&A by $50M from now on otherwise they'd be having to find another $4M a month from January just to keep going!

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I still see potential here, but the company has a lot of explaining to do to its shareholders & it really needs to do so soon, but it may not have all the facts itself yet to pass on !

I'm not sure what the big American banks / brokers see that we don't that keeps drawing more of them in to buying a stake in Capricorn.

If you offered me as many shares as I wanted to buy at £1.30 right now, I'd say thanks but no thanks. The answer would probably be the same at £1.20 until I know more facts. Yes that is a big difference from the current share price but in terms of market value it's only around $25M ( or the cash I was expecting them to have received but haven't & no its not in the receivables number instead, as that's kind of where I was expecting it to be end of October)

Good luck all -

LOTM

Hi saxman303,

I've just sold my 5,500 trading parcel as I think this will at some point soon re-test that £1.70 level.

GLA

LOTM

Hi saxman303,

Well your patients has been rewarded :)

Hopefully you got the amount of stock you were after under £1.70

Good Luck

LOTM

Well they issued an update today instead .....

No wonder they postpone the meeting yesterday with all the gloom that's in today's one.

Totally missed there year end production target by a long way, now only forecasting production of 30,000 boepd!

More later

LOTM

Wow they continue to buy-back the stock at a rapid rate.

After just 4 & a half days they have spent just over 5% of the money already (£7.5M+) & bought back nearly 5.2M shares, thus saving £0.1M in final dividend payments.

LOTM

Genel getting trashed, GKP up go figure !

Anyway I bought another 10K at 72.25p but trades doesn't appear on LSE (so far at least from 9:36)

Bots will probably get tanked later, seen it before we might even end up on the day !

GLA

LOTM

Well today should have been the day we were all looking forward & the operational update that was sadly postponed !

Just got to wait several more month's now for news!

Surprised how well the share price has held up so far, but time will tell.

GLA

LOTM

No-one other than the bots should be selling at this price.

Anyone who was in trouble & needed to get out had the free gift of an opportunity this morning at 25/26p on the bounce to do so & should have grasped it with both hands.

If they didn't & there selling now then there bonkers end of story.

There are 2 different bots in action one doing a lot of heavy selling in bursts. There is another one buying up stock but to a much lesser extent (possibly to help mop up loose stock).

As I said earlier the shorters are in total control of what's going on here & you need to take advantage of any opportunities they throw our way.

This is them re-testing the low (thanks to those stupid enough to panic & sell now instead of earlier in the day)

GLA

LOTM

Well I hope those that wanted stock got filled at 23p as they tried to test the 22.6p low again (before lunch time as I said).

Hopefully it bounces a bit from here, but don't be surprised if they try to test that low several more times before the day is done.

Just take what there giving you to help cover the losses.

GLA

LOTM

Convinced the 6+ major shorter's who have total control of this at the moment are going to re-test that 22.60p low before lunchtime.

So be ready to take advantage of it. I am

GLA

LOTM

Hi Saxman303,

Hmm difficult question depends in part on market sentiment.

Last Thrusday lowest traded price was £1.73 today the lowest traded price was £1.72 & that was the bots in action.

It took them a long time to fill my 5,500 order today.

So you really need to have your limit orders in place, you might have been able to some stock today around the £1.73 mark, but how much I don't know.

Personally I think its going to bounce from here, just by the way it traded most of the afternoon, maybe it will get to £1.70 next time round, but the trouble is by wanting such a low price you're missing out on the bounces that are occurring.

I could have set my buy order to £1.74 or there about's but I set it just above £1.75 to try & ensure it got filled, so I can sell it again on the next rise.

Something for you to think about.

Good Luck

LOTM

Sorry I couldn't post £'s last night my PC had issues & had to be reset.

As you can see my 5,500 share order has been filled at £1.74924 so lets see what the afternoon has in store or whether I set my limit price to high up (but you can't trade if you don't have any stock to trade with! )

GLA

LOTM

Well the buy-back has got of to a terrific start

Over £4.5M of the £150M spent in under 3 days! (because only 2 days of CDI's have been undertaken so far). If it keeps on at this rate it will be done in record time even with them on course to buy-in,well in excess of 100M shares/CDI's.....

They must be keen to save on all those other 2p final dividends ......

LOTM

Well sadly made 2 mistakes today .......

There was a big opening spread from the MM's & no follow through buying from late friday - which I was expecting to see.

So when the price tightened right up around 10:30 to less than 0.5p difference on dummy trades I decide to buy back the 5,000 shares I sold late friday for a loss at 1.86267

When someone bought 18,180 shares not long afterwards at well over the offer price 1.8747 I initially thought I'd done the right thing, but the slap down selling straight afterwards meant it wasn't ! (1st mistake cost 193 pounds)

Having realised the mistake I tried to sell the whole 10,000 shares I had (including the core ones! yes I know I'm not meant to do that! ) but was greedy & didn't want to take just 1.845 for them only a few minutes later having to accept 1.8352 before I missed the selling chance completely ! (mistake number 2 - which cost me another 100 pounds)

I then had to wait a very long time for the price to drift lower, twice it got within a whisker of filling my limit order but didn't do so. I thought I'd missed the boat over a tiny margin but finally I was rewarded with 5,000 shares at 1.788 (limit order had been set at 179.31).

So that got me back 181 pounds which virtually covers the original 193 pound error !

Depending on what price I buy-back the trading parcel (look out for a trade size of 5,500) I should in actual fact end up with a profit on all of this even after 2 mistakes!

LOTM

Petrofac Ltd, down 5.7% at 32.41p, 12-month range 31.92p-97.88p. Shares in the provider of services to the energy industry are on track to suffer a sixth-successive daily decline. The stock has been hurt by weaker oil prices of late. During this losing streak, shares have slumped some 20%. A barrel of Brent oil fetches USD79.85 on Monday morning London time, down from USD81.47 at the time of the London equities close on Friday.

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Don't trust the buy's & sells as listed, you have no idea if it was truly a buy or a sell

GLA

LOTM

As I said in a post to Wigwammer, I wouldn't in anyway say I'm good at trading, because I'm not.

I made 2 mistakes last week, the 1st was buying the "Core" holding of 4,000 shares at just under £1.80 when I should have got them 5p cheap. So I missed out on a £200 saving then.

Second was not buying that other "Trading" parcel of 4,000 shares at £1.737 plus costs - which I would have sold most (if not all) of it late on friday afternoon at £1.8562, so I missed out on £450 there as well.

Those are expensive mistakes yes £650 is only 2% of the money lost previously (over £31K), but it would have meant an extra 350 shares after costs at £1.80. Which would have increased the shareholding by 7.6% - ouch & brought down the break-even point considerably as well.

So if I had done nothing the family would still have 550. If I'd taken up the full rights at the time it would have cost £6600 for the 3300 shares giving us a total of 3850 shares and a break even point of £9.75 per share.

By using the £6,600 at just under £1.80 that bought me 3,665 shares instead (+365 shares) plus re-investing the £339 profit on the 1st trade covered another 185 shares & friday's banked profit got me near enough another 200 shares.

So we've now got a Core holding of 4,600 shares in total (plus a trading parcel of 955 shares) which means our break-even price has dropped to £8.1522

My 1st trading target is to get to 7,700 shares ( double the number of shares we'd have after taking up the rights issue) which would lower our break-even point to £4.87 a share.

Whether I achieve it or not is another matter !

LOTM

Company Website has been updated today to reflect the share ownership as at 17th November rather than 3rd November (that was a very quick update). It also crucially shows us the shareholdings the day before Goldman Sach's disposed of 4.6945% of Capricorn's shares.

This is name, new position, old position, number of shares & percentage owned of the 94.168M in issue at that date, ( Although I'm not convinced its totally accurate as seem to include stock they've borrowed & others don't)

Goldman Sachs collateral account 1 1 17,699,205 18.77% was (16.96%)

Newtyn Partners 2 2 12,354,001 13.10% was ( 9.33%)

Palliser Capital 3 3 7,431,767 7.88% was ( 7.86%)

Kite Lake Capital Management 4 4 7,163,629 7.60% was ( 7.58%)

Irenic Capital Management 5 5 6,136,349 6.51% was ( 6.49%)

Dimensional Fund Advisors 6 7 4,154,447 4.41% was ( 4.49%)

Vanguard Group 7 8 3,948,378 4.19% was ( 4.18%)

Total = 62.46% down from 67.29% on 3rd November & down from 62.59% on 20th October as well.

As you can see only 7 names this time round !

Bank of New York Stocklending 6 6 6,063,656 6.41% was (6.31%)

Bank of America Merrill Lynch 9 9 3,769,531 3.99% was ( 3.97%)

Are missing since 3rd November yet we know from Morgan Stanley's documentation that there holding never went down only up on 20th November ( it could be listed here under Bank of New York Stocklending instead if Morgan Stanley is part of that company)

Clarity is need regarding why NO Merrill Lynch declaration

--------- 3rd November comments --------

Very little in the way of changes over the 2 weeks other the the significant increase in the Goldman Sachs holding that we knew about, an increase in Bank of New York stocklending & a drop in the Vanguard one.

Note the very slight changes in the other holding %'s is due to the effect of the buy-back over the 2 week period.

----------------- old stuff ---------

So we have a new name on the list Bank of New York Stocklending collateral account - No hiding what that account is all about going by its "STOCKLENDING" rather appropriate given how much stock is currently on loan to the 4 longs.

Madison Avenue Partners who were previously 5 6 6,233,034 6.55 have now left the building 20th October ( for now at least) - yet have not submitted any holding notice to say they are now below the 3% threshold.

Morgan Stanley don't show up on the list yet they only reached the initial threshold on 13th October 6,377,792 shares or 6.718569% & there has been no notice to say it's gone below 3% again

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Blackrock used to own 3.13% as of 8th Sept so they have clearly fallen below the 3% threshold since then, yet no notification of such has been issued to the co

Centiva Capital who had acquired the voting rights to 3.01% of the company around the 22nd Sept don't show on the list & we know Bank of America have a far larger holding in the company's voting rights than is listed above, but the record seems to only

Decided to do a sort of halfway house strategy at the end of the day.

I sold 5,000 shares of the 6,000 share block I bought @ £1.7833 (including all costs), for £1.8562 per share for a net profit on those 5,000 shares of £358.

Will decide on the next course of action over the weekend .......

LOTM

Hi Walkietalkie,

Sorry my previous post was meant to say £1.737 not £1.837 I hate not being able to edit mistakes on this site.

"I was very tempted this morning to buy another 4,000 shares to trade at £1.737 but in the end decided that it was best to leave it - as this share has consumed enough money already & my trading parcel is already bigger than the core holding."

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It also hasn't traded as I imagined it would this morning, although it looks primed to pop right now (as if the MM's were trying to sucker in some cheap sellers this morning)

So we'll find out later if you or I were right about what's going to happen for the rest of the day.

Good Luck

LOTM

Hi Bigbas2all,

I would only be speculating on the topic without lots of data on other companies to say whether it could possibly be happening with others.

In Capricorn's case it could well tie-in with all those "long" positions I used to go on about.

I mean how can 4 companies borrow the voting rights to close to 20% of a company & yet other holders aren't having to declare in effect their "short" positions! (yes they still owned the stock but couldn't vote - which means they had no power) . Similar to a company with voting & non voting shares - The non voters have no say on resolutions or a take-over offer - other than to accept or reject the payment for themselves, they can't stop it proceeding.

It was & is unprecedented to have such "long" voting rights in a company.

As far as I'm concerned there seems to be a lot of Major Capricorn Shareholders who haven't followed the reporting rules when crossing thresholds. Something you couldn't accuse Goldman Sachs of as they seem to do it very diligently.

Implications are to be extremely cautious when dealing in Capricorn & the issue should really be brought to the board's notice for them to consult with the FCA on how to deal with it.

LOTM