Member Info for LOTM-13

I know there's been so many but I'm guessing most of you didn't pay much attention to Wednesday afternoon & Thursday morning's holding announcements ?

If you had then'd you'd have seen the massive changes that occurred on Monday the 20th November. A day when all of 125,190 shares changed hands through the LSE & Capricorn themselves accounted for 13,531 of that volume.

On the 20th November Goldman Sachs reduced its actual physical shareholding in Capricorn from 13,196,084 shares to 8,773,980 in other words a sale of 4,422,104 shares. They also reduced there indirect holding from 5.48% of the company to 5.41%

So in total there holding went from 19.49% to 14.73% in just one day.

So where did those 4,422,104 shares or 4.6945% of the company go to ?

Well Morgan Stanley (who don't appear as such on the Major shareholders list) on Thursday morning reported that there direct holding in Capricorn had risen from 6.718569% to 8.478502% on that day an increase of 1.76%

So where has the other near 3% gone ?

We're yet to find out .......

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What's clear from all of the above is that the vast majority of daily trading in Capricorn shares is happening completely out of our sight - on the Dark web or where ever.

The LSE is totally irrelevant when it comes to Capricorn & that sadly is scary.

LOTM

Hi Wigwammer,

Thanks for the clarification.

I'm not in any way saying I've a magic touch or any such thing, I would say on the whole I'm not very good at it (trading), but still trying to learn from past mistakes as I go.

The family have followed your view for generations now of buying & holding & to be honest it hasn't worked out that well. I feel in recent years things have change too much & are changing ever more rapidly.

Everything is far more exaggerated these days - holding a share ahead of a trading update or half/full year results now is fraught with risk. Your actually better selling in advance & buying back afterwards yes the occasional one will jump up in price, but a large percentage drop considerably in price 7.5%+ is very common now.

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Hi joseywales,

Sorry I can't answer your questions as I have no idea what a tear sheet is or a RSI

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Hi Walkietalkie,

I'm not sure if your trade showed up on LSE list or went through another platform so I have no idea what price you sold at ?

I was very tempted this morning to buy another 4,000 shares to trade at £1.837 but in the end decided that it was best to leave it - as this share has consumed enough money already & my trading parcel is already bigger than the core holding.

Very strange days trading looked like it was going to go up 1st thing in the morning, then it was under a lot of pressure then late afternoon some significant buys went through 14,318 10K & 50K which made me decide to hold it all overnight. The closing auction at £1.841 was a big surprise to see it so far over the offer price.

I was intending selling the trading lot in the mid £1.8's but will re-asses that in the morning as this might have legs (for now).

LOTM

Hi Wigwammer,

I'm not sure how to respond to your post as its sadly rather confusing to me .......

Not sure where this ' “slam dunk buy” trade at 300p' fits into the equation ?

I've already stated there are risks to trading this & the price racing away from you is one of them, but if you've got your "core" holding you won't have missed the boat, its only your trading parcel that you won't be re-stocking & you'd have to adjust your trading range for it. It's also part of why I said it was important to do the trading quickly & at as low a price as possible to start with to get maximum benefit.

Then in the last bit your advocating basically to just Hold the stock & do nothing, that's all very well if you got into the stock at under £5 ( £0.25 pre consolidation) or have bought in recently where you have little baggage to carry forward. Very few will be in that position the vast majority here will have significant losses. For them, they'll be lucky if £4 per new share is there break even point.

LOTM

Well the buy-back should have got off to a terrific start ..........

The Aussie's won't be pleased with the dividend or results, I can see them easily having the CDI share price down 10%+

How this ever went up in price this morning defeats me.

Won't be touching this for some time, damage done.

GLA

LOTM

Well you got a bit of a shock today then !

I was expecting the final dividend to at least be maintained at the 7.5p level especially when you take into account all the shares that have been bought back since last year's final ex-dividend date (meaning they save a good few million that way).

But no, instead they slash it to just 2p from 7.5p which makes no sense.

Shares are only headed one way from here I'm afraid & that's south in the coming months.

LOTM

I can't quite believe the market is taking these results so well !

How is everyone not shocked by the massive cut in the dividend !

Yield is now lower than virtually all the main banks. So no incentive to own the stock.

Market will eventually wake-up to the facts & this will trade a lot lower in the coming weeks.

LOTM

Hi Walkietalkie,

I'd never heard of this "tail swallowing" until this SYNT rights issue ..........

You seem to be doing pretty well with your trading so far & I'm sure its reducing your break-even price dramatically.

One of the things I forgot to mention in my last post (& this is really important for people to pick up on) about trading was in regards to my banked profit of £339 which is around 1% of the family losses.

That 1% profit (£339) was able to get me roughly 185 shares at just under £1.80 + costs which was in fact a 4.389% increase in my shareholding (from 4215 to 4400 shares).

That in turn lowered my break even price from £8.97 per share to £8.52. Which is actually a drop of 5.016%

So anyone making just a small profit at the moment & re-investing it, is making a substantially bigger difference in the price that they need to break-even later on.

LOTM

OPEC meeting delay should be a good thing.

The minister & other high ranking officials who were meant to be attending it will now have a large free space in there diaries for this weekend!

Hopefully the PM has turned round & told them to get on with resolving the pipeline issue with that time instead......

LOTM

Hi Thunder2040,

DNO recovered $8M of there outstanding amount $300M from the forward sale of oil in October & production only started to ramp-up mid month. So they maybe on track to recover @ $12M+ for November.

Now I know its a tiny fraction of what's due to them & it would take @ 2 years at that sort of rate to recover the overdue amounts as well as the cash due for the current month, but its a reasonable start.

Genel confirmed on the conference call that they will have recovered a similar pro-rata amount of there outstanding balance of $110m as well ( @ $2.75M for October on the 75/25 ownership split) & so they will likely recover another @$4M for November.

LOTM

Hi Roxi,

What you've probably not noticed is the following ..........

The divergence between Genel & GKP is stark.

Virtually everyday Genel's buy volume outweigh's the sell volume significantly & the closing auction happens close to or above the offer price.

GKP on the other hand has more sales volume than buy volume & the closing auction occurs at or below the bid price.

This has been going on for the last 2 weeks really & yet somehow GKP's share price is out performing Genel's over that period now!

Something has to change soon.

Oh & there's a shortage of Genel stock around because try buying when the price is moving & they want a hefty premium even for 5,000 shares.

LOTM

As I said if I do nothing the break-even price for us is now £60 a share.

If I took up the family rights (in full) it would have cost around £6,600 to do so. It would have given us @ 3850 shares in total (3300 new & 550 old) & lowered the break-even price from £60 a share to £9.75

By not taking up any of the rights & buying the shares at just under £1.80 that 10% difference in the buy price would have given us an addition 365 shares meaning the break-even point for the 4215 shares drops to £8.97 instead. Which is a substantive difference in itself.

(saxman303 is looking for that buy-in price drop to be lower at around £1.70 which would mean an initial 15% saving & thus more shares to reduce their break-even point).

For me even £8.97 is a very long way away from here, provided of course I want to risk another £6,600 in SYNTHOMER.

So my choice is to either trade & re-invest the profits into more shares which will lower the break-even price even more, or simply to bank the trading profits & thus the amount of cash at risk in SYNTHOMER.

If I were to go with the lower risk option then the 10% drop in price means I would only need to put £6000 at risk now instead of the £6600, but by doing so you barely affect the overall break-even price. And if your going with that strategy you really need a separate trading bundle of either 3,300 shares or 3,850 otherwise you'll have to completely sell out each time to bank the profits & if the price were to shoot up, your completely out of position.

So I'm going to take the higher risk option & re-invest any profits as I go & hope that SYNTHOMER recovers in time & thus I can get at out somewhere close to break even or even better!

My trade on Friday resulted in a profit of £339, so that gives me £6939 which I've effectively now invested in 3,850 new shares giving us 4,400 shares in total & lowering the break-even point to £8.52 per share. In addition I have another 6,150 shares to trade with.

By sheer co-incidence those extra 550 shares just happen's to match the mere 550 shares we're left with following the share consolidation & there stark value (or lack of it) comes into plain sight £939 (actually its lower than that now) frightening & not lost on me how much of an uphill battle this is going to be.

Yes I am taking risks, but without them there is no way I'm going to be able to recover a reasonable amount of the original investment. Because you need to take the market cap of the company into consideration as well & how likely it is for the company to ever get to that sort of overall valuation.

GLA

LOTM

Company Website has been updated to reflect the share ownership as at 3rd November rather than 20th October.

This is name, new position, old position, number of shares & percentage owned of the 94.391M in issue at that date, ( Although I'm not convinced its totally accurate as seem to include stock they've borrowed & others don't)

Goldman Sachs collateral account 1 1 16,030,686 16.96% was (12.23%)

Newtyn Partners 2 2 8,816,666 9.33% was ( 9.29%)

Palliser Capital 3 3 7,431,767 7.86% was ( 7.83%)

Kite Lake Capital Management 4 4 7,163,629 7.58% was ( 7.55%)

Irenic Capital Management 5 5 6,136,349 6.49% was ( 6.47%)

Bank of New York Stocklending 6 6 6,063,656 6.41% was (6.31%)

Dimensional Fund Advisors 7 7 4,239,865 4.49% was ( 4.47%)

Vanguard Group 8 8 3,948,378 4.18% was ( 4.47%)

Bank of America Merrill Lynch 9 9 3,769,531 3.99% was ( 3.97%)

Total = 67.29% up from 62.59% on 20th October

Very little in the way of changes over the 2 weeks other the the significant increase in the Goldman Sachs holding that we knew about, an increase in Bank of New York stocklending & a drop in the Vanguard one.

Note the very slight changes in the other holding %'s is due to the effect of the buy-back over the 2 week period.

-------------------------------- old stuff -------------------

So we have a new name on the list Bank of New York Stocklending collateral account - No hiding what that account is all about going by its "STOCKLENDING" rather appropriate given how much stock is currently on loan to the 4 longs.

Madison Avenue Partners who were previously 5 6 6,233,034 6.55 have now left the building 20th October ( for now at least) - yet have not submitted any holding notice to say they are now below the 3% threshold.

Morgan Stanley don't show up on the list yet they only reached the initial threshold on 13th October 6,377,792 shares or 6.718569% & there has been no notice to say it's gone below 3% again.

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Blackrock used to own 3.13% as of 8th Sept so they have clearly fallen below the 3% threshold since then, yet no notification of such has been issued to the company.

Centiva Capital who had acquired the voting rights to 3.01% of the company around the 22nd Sept don't show on the list & we know Bank of America have a far larger holding in the company's voting rights than is listed above, but the record seems to only show shares owned not actual voting rights.

LOTM

Hi MikeS02,

Certainly not trying to be disrespectful to anyone.

I'm fully aware that there will be people on or watching the BB that have lost even more money than I have & will be hurting/suffering badly from those losses.

I was hoping it might give them some hope & me for that matter - to the possibility of recovering some of those losses over time.

Yes I avoided taking up any of the rights issue, simply because it made no sense to me to do so. The family holding was acquired at £3 a share pre-consolidation in other words £60 a share now.

There will sadly be others in at a higher price even than that & others at much lower levels who still have significant losses to.

But there is virtually no chance of the share price going anywhere near £60 in the next 10 years for sure.

So the only real options are to either totally write off the investment or to try to trade the stock ( & show others it can be done to & that they may be far better at it than I) & bring the average purchase price of the holding down as much as possible thus lowering the break even price for the family.

If your going to trade it then you need to get in at as low a price as possible because that affects your average price the most.

The money I made last week was around 1% of those losses, nothing to write home about, but its a start & something to try & build on.

GLA

LOTM

Hi Bigbas2all,

No new surprise.

It is already in the accounts, I highlighted it several times before ! Cost is $16M see half year accounts (section 3.3 of the notes).

They will be trying to let it out or sell it on to someone else.

They are staying on the ground floor of 50 Lothian Road I believe ( or using part of it there is only going to be under 40 staff there).

As I've said many times before the old board knew how to spend money like water & make terrible deals, I just hope they lose out through forfeited bonuses salaries & shares.

Thanks for the update I didn't know where the new offices were meant to be.

LOTM

Well got that completely wrong then :(

Closing auction price was where I had that limit order, hmm should have stayed out longer & not been around the PC to change my mind!

Given the close you might get your £1.70 tomorrow saxman303

LOTM

Ended up buying another 4,000 @ £1.796

So now ready to trade when the price is right

LOTM

Hi joseywales (great film by the way!)

I'm thinking north of £1.87 maybe even just touching £1.90 then falling back to sub £1.75 next time - not sure just how far south of it it will go the next time round.

Just to be clear that's my current thoughts & not advice. I could very easy turn out to be completely wrong. Onlt time will tell.

GLA

LOTM

Hi Walkietalkie,

You topped up again or looking for better than £1.76 ?

I'm kind of getting the impression that might be as low as we go for now ! & might just have to stump up the extra cash to have a bigger trading bundle

LOTM

Saxman303,

Personally I've learned never to use nice round numbers with limit orders.

As I posted previously I have a gut feeling it might get there ( £1.60's), but I'm not sure its going to happen this time round.

Its kind of testing the last low from friday of £1.75 currently.

It depends if your wanting to trade it like I am & some others seem to want to do as well. In which case you can't trade it if you don't have any stock to trade!

Just watch the current seller doesn't run out of stock .......... which is what I'm watching for as well.

I've one heck of a lot of losses to try & make up on this stock in the coming months (my profit the other day only covered about 1% of those losses)

LOTM

Just did a dummy trade for 5,000 shares & I can get them for £1.4824 but not interested at that price.

I have put in my 1st limit order but it's set for a lot lower than than.

GLA

LOTM