Member Info for LOTM-13

I was reflecting overnight on the lack of share price reaction & I am very surprised by the lack of an adjustment (fall) so far given the facts in the cold light of day.

Back in April $42.7M would have been about 7% of the cash balance & around 5% of the company's market cap.

Today that sort of sum is around 70% of the net cash balance & 25% of the market cap !

The reality is that Capricorn is going to have to take that sum & an allowance for legal fees in defending its position into account until the issue is resolved one way or another.

So sadly there will now be NO payout from the Waldorf contingent consideration in 2024. I had highlighted previously the year end issues Capricorn might face & into early 2024 if payments from EGPC hadn't improved since the half year stage.

Because there is now NO update at the end of November we are totally in the dark as to how bad the cash balance is going to be.

We don't know if they have reduced D&P expenditure in the 2nd half or not & part of that is up to Cheivon as the operator etc.

If they haven't & if the trend from Q2 continued then we would barely scrape by (without accounting for that $42.7M).

So the board is now under really pressure, what looked plain sailing has turned into double storm in literally the blink of an eye.

I will not be in the least surprised now to see this trade under £1.50 in the next couple of months.

Good luck to all

LOTM

Back to wanting over the offer price for 5K again ! by near 0.5p not as bad as the 1.5p over the other day !

Its one of those shares that goes quiet then all of a sudden there is a burst of interest ........ its all about timing

I wonder if the directors are busy buying more at the moment!

LOTM

Were the company notified about this before (under the old board) & just ignore it & didn't notify shareholders about it ?

Just a stream of unanswered questions come to mind as to who knew what when & what the legal costs alone might be defending this.

I have sold the rest of my holding in the meantime until the dust settles on this at a substantial loss.

LOTM

This is not good news

What a total disaster area the old board of directors seem to have been. I hope they can be held accountable through there salary bonuses or share schemes for any money that Capricorn might end up having to payout.

Any thing they have should be suspended until the matter is resolved. Everything they touched was a disaster area.

LOTM

Hi sasa43

You clearly don't follow OCN closely otherwise you'd clearly know why there is an investment portfolio.

The 2 controlling OCN family's own/run the asset management firm, where all there friends & extended family no doubt work & get jobs they wouldn't get otherwise.

It costs us the minority shareholders $ millions each year in fees & total under performance.

If the funds had simply been invested in the index that OCN keep quoting in the annual reports since 2007 the value of the investment portfolio would be at least $300m higher than it is now & then add on $50M in fees paid during that time & you'll soon realise how much wealth this cosy set-up has cost outsiders over the past 16 years.

LOTM

One of the main questions that needs to be asked during the meeting is ...........

Can you please give an indication if Genel was able to reclaim outstanding debt in October similar to DNO who have stated publicly that they got $8M back of there outstanding amounts due to higher production levels. So on a 75/25 split it would suggest that Genel should have been able to recover close to $3M of the $110M that's outstanding ?

LOTM

Jim800

Its not the KRG, the oil that is produced from the field is being sold to local refinery's rather than through the pipeline to Turkey. Now there is the possibility the refineries are owned by the KRG or there families but even then exporting the oil will be more beneficial for them in $ terms.

Over 50% of the oil DNO/Genel produce belongs to the KRG, they are not able to export the oil & hence do not receive the much higher price to fund the Government & there slush funds (so there the ones who lose out most in actual fact)

The KRG have also agreed to supply to SOMO (Iraq Government) 400,000 bopd from there region in return for the funding provided by the central government to the region.

Given the tie-up now between the KRG & Iraq regarding oil/gas the arbitration award (if any) in effect will be against the Iraq government !

They are trying to attract overseas investors etc, not settling such a case properly would not help there cause at all.

The KRG are the ones under the most pressure right now.

LOTM

Hi astle01,

Sorry my mistake I did look through all there announcements the other day, I was looking for it saying "Quarterly" in the announcement whereas they tend to call it "Trading & Operation's update".

Probably because they had used the word Quarterly in last week's advance announcement was why I was focused on that.

Thanks for the correction.

LOTM

Jim800

I only got back in last week due to the price going to a 52 week low compared to GKP which never re-trace to the same extend.

The heavy director buying in mid October was a massive hint in itself when you think about it.

They would already virtually know how the company did for the 3rd Quarter & then doing financial numbers etc when they never normally do something like that tomorrow. Is just a massive flag ( now we don't know if it is good news or bad on its own) but put the 2 things together & you're probably 90%+ chance that the news is good / very good otherwise why on earth would the directors put £3M into shares at that moment in time.

Never trust what's listed as buy's & sells, the best way to get a feel for what's going on is to put in some dummy trades & see where the actual bid/offer prices are.

I wasn't happy paying 82p mid morning but it just felt with everything else that was going on I wasn't going to get more stock under 80p ahead of tomorrow & as it kept moving up it never really looked like going back down :( so I ended up paying about 85p for another 2 bundles.

So I've got more stock than I really want to be holding & will sell some tomorrow or the next day depending on the news etc.

I was expecting a lot more volume in the closing auction, but it is what it is.

LOTM

Roxi,

You can't get on the tails of GKP when there is no stock around & the MM's want a premium for just 5,000 shares !!!!

LOTM

PUTUP,

And if you'd followed the old adage you'd have been buying back at the very bottom of the cycle on 15th September & ben as happy as Larry now !

I'm sure you'll be running the slide rule over what Genel say tomorrow in there "meet the company" hour. Given that DNO were able to bank $8M in October from the re-payment of outstanding debts from the KRG, from all the pre-paid production there receiving from suppliers. If both DNO/Genel are able to do it then GKP should be able to do so as well ....

LOTM

Its pretty clear the MM's are short of GENL stock right now & are scrambling around to find some sources.

FOMO should kick in later today, because there is a definite purpose to this "meet the company" interaction tomorrow.

GLA

LOTM

They should be buying back stock heavily every day at these prices - End of Story

To not do so is foolish beyond belief.

No rise in the dividend rate per share until the share price is north of £1.20

The share currently yield over 20% on an annual basis.

The shares are the company's most expensive form of debt by a factor of 2. For every share bought back the company is saving itself & its shareholders money.

Some people seem to worry that there won't be enough gas to pay off the debt, I don't think that's the case at all.

However if they carry out buy-backs to there daily limit for the coming weeks, they will save $M in future dividend payments, those future savings will enlargen the gap between assets & debts, thus taking those fears away even more.

Get cracking DEC & buy those shares back in bulk now

LOTM

Looks like I was reading the wrong tea-leaves this morning!

LOTM

Having reflected further on last weeks events I have reduced my holding again this morning at over £1.63 but neither of the trades is showing up on the LSE list. These sales are at a significant loss to the price I bought them at but I see far more downside risk than upside in the short term so nee to go with that view for now.

I have put limit buy orders in place just in case the MM's decide to do a tree shake or the like in the coming days.

The buyback is going really slowly still not managed to buy back 1% of the company in 5 weeks let alone the 5% they were hoping to do before the end of the year. Still if they keep munching away at these prices or lower it will benefit everyone more in the long run.

Good Luck to ALL

LOTM

Jim800,

Yes I'm sure they will get questions about the pipeline re-opening .... but by 10am tomorrow it will be after noon in KRG (half way through the 3rd day of the visit)

There maybe an acquisition or such like, because they didn't know this flurry of activity was going to happen when they planned this originally. So there is definitely another reason for having this investor interaction tomorrow.

What will be interest to learn is how much debt they managed to recover in October in comparison with DNO. In theory it should be 1/3 of what DNO recovered.

The legal case is only 3 months away so maybe its something to do with that as well ?

Given the stability they now hopefully have it might make sense to buy-back some of there shares with the recovered cash, given how depressed the share price is.

It sure is going to be an interesting day! :) & as you said fingers crossed

LOTM

I'm not sure Genel could have timed this any better

Genel will issue its trading and operations update in respect of the third quarter of 2023 next Tuesday, 14 November 2023. Genel will host a live presentation on the Investor Meet Company (‘IMC’) platform on the day at 1000 GMT. The presentation is open to all existing and potential shareholders. Questions can be submitted in advance and investors can sign up to IMC via: https://www.investormeetcompany.com/genel-energy-plc/register-investor

This should give everyone an insight into what's happening on the ground etc, how much of the outstanding debt they've clawed back compared to DNO etc ..........

Also worth noting that Genel's share price is still below the price the directors were heaving buying at last month & is flat since September compared to the significant rise GKP has had since then of over 50%

Certainly looking forward to tomorrow now & bought yet another 6K this morning but not at a great price wasn't expecting such news to break over the weekend!

GLA

LOTM

I'm not sure Genel could have timed the following any better

Genel will issue its trading and operations update in respect of the third quarter of 2023 next Tuesday, 14 November 2023. Genel will host a live presentation on the Investor Meet Company (‘IMC’) platform on the day at 1000 GMT. The presentation is open to all existing and potential shareholders. Questions can be submitted in advance and investors can sign up to IMC via: https://www.investormeetcompany.com/genel-energy-plc/register-investor

This should give everyone an insight into what's happening on the ground etc.

Also worth noting that Genel's share price is still below the price the directors were heaving buying at last month & is flat since September compared to the significant rise GKP has had since then of over 50%

GLA

LOTM

I've actually only just seen the full RNS from DNO the other day on another BB ......

"Following closure of the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline last March, the Company gradually reopened the Tawke and Peshkabir fields (DNO 75 percent and Genel Energy International Ltd 25 percent) and stepped up deliveries to local trading companies in Kurdistan. Production continues to increase; so far in the fourth quarter output is averaging double the level of the third quarter.

The DNO-Genel contractual entitlement, currently around one-half of volumes produced, is sold at prices that vary narrowly in the mid USD 30s per barrel, and payments are made in advance before any oil is delivered.

DNO has over the last 12 months recovered around USD 15 million, including USD 8 million in October, of the accumulated KRG debt to DNO for previous oil sales in 2022 and 2023 (in excess of USD 300 million)."

----------------------------

Look at the last paragragh, here is the key point DNO is making enough money now from advanced sales to be able to claim back directly $8M in cash of the debt owed to it by the KRG for October alone. That will be in addition to the money it should be getting in the normal course of events.

So Genel should be in the same boat, meaning it should have got close to $3M of the $110M outstanding in October as well. Given production is still on the increase its likely that they'll be getting more than $3M of the arrears back with each passing month.

LOTM

What is interesting is that Genel don't usually do quarterly updates (financials) they only do yearly & half yearly ones, if you look back through company announcements.

So why do one this time round ? unless you've got something interesting to reveal to the market ........ given everyone knows about the pipeline situation & the problems its causing etc.

Why do a presentation etc unless your maybe announcing the purchase of a new asset (long been talked about) ?

Current market cap is $270M with net cash at end of June at $153M with another $110M overdue from the KRG.

Outstanding debt of 9.5% bonds was $273M which has been reduced by $16.2M following a recent buy-back offer.

Then the court case for substantial damages is due to be heard in Feb 2024, so only 3 month's away from that.

LOTM