Member Info for LOTM-13

Company Website has finally been updated to reflect the share ownership as at 6th October.

This is name, new position, old position, number of shares & percentage owned of the 95.224M in issue at that date

Goldman Sachs collateral account 1 1 10,647,270 11.18

Newtyn Partners 2 2 8,816,666 9.26

Palliser Capital 3 3 7,431,767 7.80

Kite Lake Capital Management 4 4 7,163,629 7.52

Madison Avenue Partners 5 6 6,233,034 6.55

Irenic Capital Management 6 5 6,188,126 6.50

Dimensional Fund Advisors 7 7 4,335,427 4.55

Bank of America Merrill Lynch 8 8 4,312,448 4.53

Vanguard Group 9 9 3,985,847 4.19

So Irenic Capital's holding was down by 0.31% from that of 8th Sept, Vanguard was down a tiny amount.

Blackrock used to own 3.13% as of 8th Sept so they have clearly fallen below the 3% threshold since then, yet no notification of such has been issued to the company.

Centiva Capital who had acquired the voting rights to 3.01% of the company around the 22nd Sept don't show on the list & we know Bank of America have a far larger holding in the company's voting rights than is listed above, but the record seems to only show shares owned not actual voting rights.

LOTM

RagstoRich,

You're right, the main bet is on Egypt longer term & on the price of oil (as gas sales seem to be under a fixed price agreement).

Which is why them hiring Randy with a good track record of working in Egypt previously as CEO was a very smart move I'd say.

Shorter term you have these other potential payments - 3 from the Waldorf UK assets over the next 3 years that could yet yield considerable amounts of cash depending on the oil price etc.

Then you have a straight bet on whether Woodside gets production started in Senegal by 30th June next year. If it does then I'd say your pretty much guaranteed the $50M payment given how the oil market is shaping up. Now $50M between 315M shares previously would have been $0.158 per share, between 142M shares (after May) it would have been worth $0.352 per share. Now it would be worth roughly $0.55 (91M shares after the buy-back) & I can see a scenario where there is a further special dividend & share consolidation before Jan 2025 meaning the payment would be around $0.694 per share on 72M shares in issue.

So in that regard all eyes will be on whether the FPSO sets sail in Q1 next year for Senegal because we're now talking about a very significant payment compared to before on a per share basis.

But the beauty of the "bet" is that the cash inside the company already makes up a significant percent of the current market cap & that cash amount will grow rapidly from January onwards.

Egypt seems to be making a lot of progress with the IMF about loans etc, it needs to keep its own gas production up because of its energy needs, so if there isn't new investment it will decline & no-one is going to invest more if they are not getting paid in a timely manner.

LOTM

Goldman Sach's continue to increase there overall voting interest in Capricorn time & time again.

They own most of it then they seem to sell it but not the voting rights then they buy it back & slowly but surely there interest in Capricorn grows & grows.

There are 4 institutions out there who have bought the voting rights to like 19% of the company that they don't actually own !!

Still not sure how that is possible with no-one supposedly shorting it !

LOTM

GrumpusLOL

I didn't say "we'd all be millionaires" next year, but regarding total return (not just share price) the market is wrong, very wrong going forward.

Market cap $200M

Net Cash in bank after special dividend & share buy-back payments $62.5M+

Net receivables due $108M+

Therefore Egypt is currently valued at under $30M.

If you disregard the contingent payments that are due in 2024-26 from Waldorf & the possible Senegal payment in 2025 if production there starts by 30th June 2023.

If you give any value to the above (& there is definitely going to be a payment due for 2023 from Waldorf) then Egypt is given literally no value.

Yet it made a gross profit in the 1st half of the year even with the burden of all the existing G&A costs. Once it is free from such costs the bank balance will start to grow month by month & thus funds will be available to pay to shareholders in the form of normal dividends & I'm not talking about 2 or 3p per share, I'm talking double digit numbers.

So I look forward to discussing this again with you in a year's time.

LOTM

Mr.kioto

I found this on the company website, while trying to see if the shareholder register data had been updated (which its not, its still from 8th Sept)

Performance table:

Share price development

Instrument 1M change % 3M change % 52W change % 5 years change % 52W high & low

Capricorn Energy(LSE) -4.71% -13.99% -29.34% -23.07% H: 263.19 L: 149.79

They also have a share chat you can view to

LOTM

GrumpusLOL

Overheads are being reduce & have been for months now, the saving will ONLY start to show up in the numbers from 2024 onwards. They told you that G&A this year would be the same as last year, just look in the half year report, in reducing the staff numbers from 200 to 30 through 2023. Redundancy costs were £12M in the 1st half of the year, £16M for an office they no longer need, sky high ESOP costs, LTIP etc.

I'll happily have this conversation again with you in a year's time because the market is wrong badly wrong.

I'm happy to be accumulating at these prices inside 2 years, the shares will be yielding north of 20% (on the current share price) in normal regular dividends.

LOTM

Mr.kioto,

I don't want to get into an argument about it but your reliable trading platform is wrong.

The share price hasn't been above £2 since about the end of May the lowest its been is £149.80 intra-day so that is a 25% decline max. (see the chart when you look at the share price hereon LSE)

Its certainly not down 27.87% in a month, sadly the trading platform can't deal with share consolidations correctly.

LOTM

Mr.kioto

Personally I wouldn't want a take-over unless its north of £3.50 a share.

This is going to be a significant cash-cow in the coming years.

LOTM

Hi Fossiltime,

There are several factors at play.

These large payouts & share consolidations make the company much smaller than it used to be. Before the institutions probably owned 95%+ of the company, as it drops out of some of these index's those insto's have to sell out depending on there investment criteria.

That gaps needs to be filled by PI's but very few of them are looking at Capricorn currently & unless they do some deep research on it, probably won't see much to interest them. I'm not even sure the Egypt update at the end of November will get many onboard.

The new board are transforming the company & you will be handsomely rewarded in due course, but it takes time for all that has been done so far to show up in the numbers. The first real glimpse we'll get is in the 2023 year end report, but that won't be published until late March/early April I'd say.

The share reduction's (consolidations) are actually adding a lot of value to those who keep themselves fully invested (ie re-invest the dividends). Yes the payouts are reducing the value of the business, but that value is now shared by a far smaller number of shares.

The share price is moving on very little volume, I know its very frustrating, but things are getting better inside the company & that will start to show up in the future payment's they'll make to shareholders in the form of normal dividends, which I'm pretty sure will start up next year.

LOTM

Chatroom,

Yes the sp might fall further, most of that volume today is from a single trade, a couple of days ago the volume was as lopsided to the buy side.

There are 4 Insto's who have borrowed stock & are increasing there holdings so they will use whatever means they can to shake stock loose.

Hopefully the buy-back bought that 78k lot earlier, if not they have a lot of munching to do. They are looking to spend another £7.5M before the end of the year. That's over 4M more shares (over 4% of the company) in just 10-11 weeks (so roughly 400,000 shares a week or 80,000 a day, every day to Xmas).

LOTM

Mr.kioto

I have no idea where you got this "current report", but it's totally wrong. The share price is not down 41% in the last 90 days.

As for the fair value estimate of £2.19 that's laughable in its self. The company will save that amount in G&A costs over the next 4 years alone.

I wasn't around at the time of the tender but I'd guess the institutions wanted it that way so they could sell a large chunk of there holdings without it moving the share price, as the company would be leaving an index at the same time.

The stock will go up next year once people can actually see the true numbers & the benefits that are coming shareholders way, until then there will be very little to move the share price other than possibly this webcast/presentation on Egypt at the end of November.

In some ways because they've now cut the fat, they are less likely to be taken over, especially after paying out all the cash as well. Both would be prime reason's for buying/merging before not after the event.

Just need to be patient, good things come to those that wait !

Personally I'm trying to accumulate as many of these as I can in the coming month's because of that. Sadly I misjudged the new trading range & will have to adjust my strategy accordingly, even if I have to take a short term hit to do so.

LOTM

LOTM

Just bought another 5,000 shares at £1.79891

Buy-back didn't start until nearly 1pm yesterday & I'd say they fell short of there daily target. They need to buy back around 400,000 shares a week to get the buy-back completed just before Xmas.

So they are going to have to up the pace of it soon.

LOTM

Hmm nothing wrong with buying the bonds back at 93.5% but really was expecting them to buy in a lot more than $16.2M, they didn't even make there own target figure of $20M.

What we don't know of course is how many bonds were actually offered for them to buy-back and at what price.

If there'd been another wad available at 94% then you'd like to think they would have gone ahead & bought them back !

LOTM

We seem to be on a rising trend for now with higher high's & higher low's.

Gone through the 50 day MA & are about to go through the 100 day one as well.

I changed strategy yesterday, had been hoping for a retreat to around the £1.73 - 75 level which didn't happen. So I ended up buying 3 large lots for 23,334 shares in the £1.83's. will still be looking to trade them as we go. Wasn't great would have been far better getting a lot of them for under £1.80 but I've just got to trade what I see.

Still trying to figure out how the share buy-back of around 70,000 shares a day is going to affect everything. Interestingly the buy-back didn't kick in until nearly lunchtime yesterday when you look at the trades they did.

LOTM

Wow what is going on with these institutions!

Palliser has now managed to get the voting rights to 2.35% of the company in addition to the 7.8% they have held steady for month's now.

So 4 Institutions have now bought indirect holdings in Capricorn, who on earth is lending them there stock ?

I guess that's 4 Institutions that see upside potential here.

LOTM

It will be interesting to see just how many bonds they buy-back tomorrow.

Last traded price of the 9.25% bonds seems to have been in the 93-94 region.

I know it say's there after $20M in nominal value, but I wouldn't be the least surprised to see them buy back around $40M's worth if they can get them for under $95 a piece.

LOTM

So that's another step of the transformation process complete. while another starts back up (the share buy-back).

Market cap is now under £172M or $212.5M & net cash at 20th October (assuming the cash position hasn't changed since 30th June other than for the special dividend & share buy-back) will be ($176 - $100 - $3.4 [on buy-back to 4th August]) $72.6M - (current buy-back amount - lets say they spend $1.6M by then) so $71M in cash.

There is still another approximately $8.4M to go on the buy-back after that leaving a cash balance of roughly $62.5M when all said & done.

Shares in issue should have fallen to a fraction under 91M when the current buy-back finishes assuming the share price averages £1.90 during it ( around 90.76M if average is £1.80).

At £1.80 the market cap would then be £164M or $205M, or at £1.90 it is £172.9M or $216.1M

So current net cash ($62.5M) will account for 28.9% or 30.5% of CNE's market value.

Note net receivables (receivables - payables) for Egypt at the end of June were $108M ($144M - $36M) as well.

Looking very healthy indeed.

LOTM

Mr Kioto,

Very end of November, possibly the 30th Nov if I recall correctly for the update on Egypt & I'm guessing it will be open to investors & shareholders.

LOTM

Finally able to trade the stock once more, unfortunately didn't get the chance to bag some of the £1.84-85 on offer 1st thing.

I've put limit orders in place to buy stock in the low £1.7's let's see if it get's filled this afternoon. All these tiny trades going through are bizarre, of no value whatsoever!

LOTM

Curiously Genel's major shareholders list only show's those who hold 5% or more of the company. Almost all the other company's I've looked at in the past, list those above 3%.

So its quite possible that there are some out there holding between 3 & 5 % of the company.

Given what's written in the 2022 annual report about a group of people having voting rights to over 10% of the company & having a director on the board until then (May 2022) its quite possible some of them owned 3-5% of the company.

So the actual free-float maybe a lot less than the 94M shares it appears to be, possibly in the 75-80M region instead.

I'm a little surprised Bilgin Grup Doğalgaz A.Ş. hasn't been buying any more in the past few days to average down on those 6 decent sized buy's ! I mean 3 Million more would bring the average to under £1 but at the same time put them close to 25%

LOTM