Member Info for LOTM-13

Saxman303,

Good luck in getting £1.70

Personally I think that's a stretch in the short term it might need a couple of bounces before it gets there, but we'll see.

Its £1.7577 to sell & £1.7624 to buy currently which is a very tight spread.

I have put in another buy order under £1.75 we'll se what happens.

LOTM

Well my 6,000 share order got filled & at lower than my limit price!

Might just put in another order lower down in case they decide to give the stock away....

GLA

LOTM

Hi saxman303,

Well several trades have gone through now in the £1.79's & a £1.78 you can buy under £1.80 for sure but there seems to be a bit of stock around so it might go lower than my limit order ...... thinking about moving it ....... we'll see

GLA

LOTM

Hi saxman303,

You were nearly right about the £1.70's today! the bid was in the £1.79's but no trades took place at that level.

I guess we will see at least 1 trade in the £1.70's tomorrow, how many & how low it will go is another totally different matter!

I'll be watching with interest & to see if my current order gets filled or not.

GLA

LOTM

A really interesting article...... well worth reading

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Said-To-Consider-Additional-1-Million-Bpd-Output-Cut.html

Going by that, its going to do the complete opposite & it seems Biden has been messing with something he shouldn't have been.

LOTM

A really interesting article well worth a read.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Said-To-Consider-Additional-1-Million-Bpd-Output-Cut.html

LOTM

No problem Autonomy1

Yes the pipeline has been close since March.

They had to get the internal politics sorted out 1st of all between Baghdad & the KRC. That has taken quite a bit of time. Baghdad had to show the KRG that it held all the trump cards, but at the same time get them onboard with the way the whole country is going to be run in future.

I think the 3 days comment was very optimistic to say the least, but at the same time it was a very public statement by those at the highest level telling those below them that they want this sorted out as a matter of urgency.

So now no-one is any doubt as to what is required.

They just need to find the right "addendums" to make it work for everyone.

You have to bear in mind that the existing Baghdad oil & gas contracts are completely different to the ones the KRG issued and as such, they have to alter the KRG ones so that they work for the APIKUR (our group) the KRG & Baghdad so that they don't disadvantage all the other IOC working in the rest of Iraq otherwise they'll open up a massive can of worms for themselves.

No good getting the KRG bit fixed to find other IOC's shutting down production or refusing to drill new wells etc until they get similar terms to APIKUR members.

Hopefully not to much longer to wait ....

LOTM

Hi Autonomy1,

I think your wrong about Baghdad. They have to pay the wages of all the KRG staff & that it quite a monthly sum. They also have to pay Turkey for the pipeline if there isn't a certain amount of oil flowing through it.

So by not having KR production they are forking out a lot of cash with nothing new to show for it. Get the KR oil flowing properly again & the income from it will cover most if not all of the above & probably gives them some money to distribute to other regions as well.

But your right about the contracts being a problem & this is where they need to find a solution & soon to get that oil & revenue flowing again.

LOTM

Well I got a bit of a shock yesterday when I totalled up all my Capricorn trades.

1st thing on 6th October my CNE trading over recent months had led to an overall banked gain of £6,227.75 & I still had 16,666 post consolidation shares in my account which had a further unbanked gain of @ £858 on them.

By the time I had sold them & the other 39,334 shares I'd acquired since then, that gain of over £7,000 had turned into an overall loss of £2,999.49

If I hadn't got out of most of my holding at an average of close to £1.635 I'd be looking at an additional loss of at least £4,000 & rising by over £500 for each additional £0.01 fall.

If it goes to £1.50 as I'm pretty sure it will, that would have been another additional loss of £3250 ( So £7250 on top of the £3,000 I currently have)

I will be back in but only when the risk / reward looks right to me.

GLA

LOTM

Hi saxman303,

I think everyone is looking to lower there average price, given the cliff the share price has already fallen over. I mean £1.80 is 9p yes £0.09 a share pre-consolidation.

I'm not sure you'll see £1.70 this week (or at all) although I somehow have a gut feeling we will see a £1.6x handle or lower at some point in the next few months, no basis other than that, just a feeling.

I'm guessing we will see it go back into the £1.7x's at some point next week, will we see it below Friday's £1.75 I'm not so sure about that.

The drops seem to be short & sharp (timewise) so I'll definitely be putting in limit orders as I stupidly didn't get a 2nd parcel of shares Friday morning with my attention elsewhere. I've already got one in place for all of next week for double the size of my last one.

Good Luck

LOTM

I would say this is the key point of that rudaw article

"The Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (APIKUR) said in a statement that discussions earlier this week between an Iraqi delegation headed by Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul-Ghani and Kurdish officials in Erbil “represent a potentially positive step toward resumption of full production and exports,” but warned that any addendums to their contracts should be agreed on by all parties - the federal government, the regional government, and the association. "

It will be interesting to see what develops over the weekend & in particular with any addendums !

GLA

LOTM

Hi Walkietalkie,

Well those that you sold at £2.15 & you've bought back at say £1.78 means a profit of £0.37 per share that's around a 17% gain in just a couple of days !!! That's a big help.

Question is did you hold on looking for over £2 this time round or took the low £1.9's on offer earlier ?

I think its headed back into the £1.7's question is will it bounce from there or go lower ?

Decisions Decisions ..........

Good Luck

LOTM

SYNT has become quite volatile (pricewise)

So yesterday I dipped my toe back in & bought 3,000 shares under £1.80 & sold them again this morning at over £1.92 while I try to work out what the trading range might be.

A tiny fraction back of what's been lost since buying at £3 pre consolidation.

I will try to keep a core holding in the hope of recovering the £20K+ over time. I will try to increase that holding through trading the stock & re-investing the profits into the core holding (thus reducing slowly but surely my break-even point).

By the way ...... today

HSBC cuts Synthomer price target to 230 pence - 'hold'

Good luck to all

LOTM

Hi Mr.Spacetomato

I'm not someone who follows "technicals & charts"

Yes the sharp drop in crude prices recently has surprised me, but there again Biden is weak & past it. Otherwise Iran & Russia wouldn't be exporting like they are now.

Saudi's apparently need around $85 to balance there hefty budgets, so I'd expect them to cut production further, others may join in.

This of course causes a problem further down the road when crude consumption picks back up, not enough oil above ground in storage, which will then cause prices to spike yet again.

All of that of course assumes things in the Middle East don't get any worse, if they do then who knows what's going to happen.

LOTM

The story Genel is currently telling is that there is a stock shortage !!!!!

Someone is buying up Genel stock big time at the moment, could well be the directors

I can't get a quote on 10,000 share at all now.

Barely able to get a quote on 5,000 ( sometimes it gives it other times refuses)

Maybe they want to be fully locked & loaded ahead of the weekend.

LOTM

LOTM

Someone is buying up Genel stock big time at the moment, could well be the directors

I can't get a quote on 10,000 share at all now.

Barely able to get a quote on 5,000 ( sometimes it gives it other times refuses) & the price is 1.1p over the current offer price of 84.4p quote is 85.5xxx

And if you want to sell them volume they'll give you a premium for it.

Could be an interesting close

LOTM

Hi RagstoRich,

Hmm we don't know what's all in the agreement the old board signed with Woodside regarding liabilities.

Worth noting the letter went to Woodside not Capricorn.

They might want to leverage Woodside for the money & they are not going to want any more hold-ups on getting that field into production given how much they've spent on it so far.

Capricorn may find themselves being sued from both & that means having to pay for lawyers which is never cheap & you have to also abide by what the accountants say in clarifying your accounts to.

I just think people haven't thought through the implications yet & the effect it could have on the company.

Personally I think there is a reasonable chance of getting the contingent consideration from Woodside, of course if they are now suing you for the other money there's a good reason for them to hold up the start of production to mid July instead of doing it ASAP.

In which case NO payment & possibly $42.7M+ going out the coffers to.

LOTM

Just saw this in the share news

Jefferies starts Genel Energy with 'hold' - price target 95 pence

LOTM

By the looks of it there are 4 refineries in the KRG

1. Kar refinery (Kalak or Keurgosk)

2. Bazian Refinery

3. Lanaz Refinery

4. Tawke Refinery

With a combined capacity to process in excess of 250,000 BOPD

Wouldn't it be a good idea for APIKUR to buy an interest in 1 or 2 of the refineries so that they can get income from the whole process ?

At the moment they only get mid $30 for selling there oil to the refineries, but by owning part of the refineries themselves they would get a much bigger slice of the pie than there getting right now.

LOTM

By the looks of it there are 4 refineries in the KRG

1. Kar refinery (Kalak or Keurgosk)

2. Bazian Refinery

3. Lanaz Refinery

4. Tawke Refinery

With a combined capacity to process in excess of 250,000 BOPD

Wouldn't it be a good idea for APIKUR to buy an interest in 1 or 2 of the refineries so that they can get income from the whole process ?

At the moment they only get mid $30 for selling there oil to the refineries, but by owning part of the refineries themselves they would get a much bigger slice of the pie than there getting right now.

LOTM