Member Info for LOTM-13

Capricorn got a massive downgrade yesterday, very surprised the share price didn't react more.

Jefferies cuts Capricorn Energy to 'hold' (buy) - price target 160 (225) pence

GLA

LOTM

Hi Walkietalkie,

I thought over the Festive season that it was going to push well into the £1.90's given the size & price of some of the trades that went through, that didn't happen & its fallen back much quicker than I expected it to, so selling the last of my holding early on Tuesday at over £1.8724 turned out to be a really good move, especially as I've already re-purchased them & a few more at £1.7205 including all costs (£1.7101 trade price) just 2 days later.

I have a feeling this is still going to go below £1.70 a share to buy yet, before it has its next bounce,. I have a limit order in place to buy my trading parcel should that prove to be right, but I'm watching it as closely as I can in case I'm wrong & it just goes up from here on this cycle. If I feel it has momentum I'll change tack & just buy them if there's time because it can do these moves so fast.

As to the size of the bounce, I'm sure we'll get into the £1.8's once more, but not sure it will go above £1.85 this time round as there is currently more negativity market wise to factor in as well.

Personally I think the £1.67 - £1.93 trading range is still in place, but I expect us to make a couple of lower high's on the next couple of bounces. I'll be watching closely as well to see if the bots give us lower low's on the down legs as well, to get a better grip of when to buy them back. Which is the hard bit right now given its been a few weeks since the price was as low as this £1.71 / £1.715 to buy.

I'm wary of the situation in the Middle East being a complete powder keg right now & that could send markets into a tailspin in a flash & given the way SYNT moves we could see a £1.5x number in such a scenario. So being nimble footed seems to be the name of the game right now.

Good Luck

LOTM

Dixon1,

The buy-back in itself isn't meant to push the share price immediately higher. Over time the share price should reflect the lower number of shares in issue with an improved EPS (earning per share) number & TNAV (Tangible net asset value per share) number as well. As these increase more quickly in future results because they are shared out amongst fewer shares, the share price should mover higher & the dividend per share should rise faster on a per share basis as well.

Although the current dividend policy seems to be all over the place with this massive final dividend cut.

I know lots of shareholders don't like it but the lower the share price is during a buy-back the better it is longer term for them because it ends up with fewer shares in issue. You might say what's another 10M shares here & there, well over time it all adds up & compounds the benefits. Especially in TNAV, should a bid or offer ever come along.

-------------------------

I see the company is now just over 25% through the share buy-back.

LOTM

Joseywales

I think you'll understand stand things better once I've got all the cash re-invested & you start to see the blue, orange, yellow & red core holdings move, but more importantly how the break even price we need continues to drop.

With the current holding of 5,550 our break even price is £6.757

If I had bought more shares earlier today (at the same price) then the banked profit & rights issue money would mean us owning 6,375 shares instead ( anything over that would effectively be trading shares) & that would have given us a break-even price of £5.882

I would have gained 2,525 shares through my actions so far. That's an increase of over 65% on what would have been 3850 shares if I'd done nothing to date.

I could easily have reached my initial target of 7,700 shares weeks ago if I'd made a few better decisions. In all honesty I think 10,000 shares would have been achievable. I've a vast amount of improvement to make that's for sure.

Good luck

LOTM

Hi Joseywales,

No its not that at all.

Family originally had around 11,000 shares at a cost of around £3 each. Those consolidated into 550 new shares.

Those 550 new shares had 3,300 rights - which I couldn't do anything with as they are tied up in probate.

So to maintain the same percentage holding as before it meant investing another £6,600 to do that or just write off the whole £31.5K as a loss, as the share price wasn't going to return to effectively £60 a share. If I put another £6,600 at risk through the right issue it would mean having 3,850 shares & the share price would need to go to £9.75 for us to break even.

I decided to try & trade our way out of the issue instead. As part of that thought process I declined to touch the rights issue, taking the view that the share price would go lower than £1.98 & that I'd get more shares for that same £6,600.

The 1st time I bought in for that sum of money (rights issue £6,600) was at £1.80 (meaning I got 3665 shares for the cash instead of 3300). A gain of 365 shares through inaction with the rights issue, or the easiest way of thinking about it is imaginarily having sold the 3,300 shares at £1.98 & buying them back at £1.80 with the profit £600 re-invested as is happening with each trade. But as I didn't do the actual trade itself that's why I've termed it a "saving" instead.

When I was doing other trades & banking the profits I accounted for them separately.

The problem arose when I sold down my holding to below the rights issue number & then bought them back at a different price ( or sold out completely as I have done 3 times now).

How to account for that initial saving in a way ordinary readers would understand! Stating the actual banked profit is easy & doesn't change until another profit/loss is crystallised, which is easy for everyone to understand. To keep changing the "savings" amount every so often is much harder for people to grasp & feel that your being honest in your calculations with them.

The savings amount in cash only changes every time my share holding drops below my banked profit & rights issue cash. But I'm only trying to reflect it in the numbers when I've actually sold out all of my rights issue shares. Any profit I make on this small number of shares goes into the banked profit figure, the rights issue figure of £6,600 stays constant.

My trades have varied in size from purchases of 2,000 shares to 6,000 shares in size & sales from 3,000 shares to 10,000 shares.

My profits to date have been

£338.36

then loss of £90.91

£416.80

£263.12

£280.79

£168.29

£129.22

£296.70

£271.25

£70.79

£543.16

£225.24

£512.70

Which come to a banked profit of £3425.51

to be continued

LOTM

Hi joseywales,

Sorry I was writing my post when you obviously posted yours!

I couldn't do anything with the rights issue because the original shares are stuck in probate. To take up the rights issue would have cost £6,600 originally, but I felt the share price would continue to fall given the cliff fall we'd had in the run up to it. Hence why I'm kind of calling it a "saving". To have no dilution of the holding we need to own an additional 3,300 shares, the variable is the cost of those 3,300 shares against the rights issue price of £6,600.

I hope that helps explain it to you.

GLA

LOTM

My 1st limit order of 5,000 shares got filled at 12:07 but isn't on the LSE list (£1.7101 so an all in cost of £1.7205 per share).

My 2nd one hasn't been filled yet as its placed in the very high £1.6's (for now at least, as I have a feeling the share price might return there soon).

The Blue core holding is now 2,500 shares ( the original 550 shares plus 1950 shares that used up £3354.975 of the £3425.51 profit)

The Orange holding is 1050 shares (including the rest of the profit [41 shares] plus the £922.35 saving from the rights issue [536 shares].

The Yellow holding gets the other 2,000 shares from that purchase.

At the moment our break-even price is now £6.757 for the total holding of 5,500 shares.

GLA

LOTM

Hmm got a downgrade this morning

Jefferies cuts Genel Energy price target to 85 (95) pence - 'hold'

GLA

LOTM

I hope everyone had an enjoyable Festive Season & a Happy New Year to all.

I sold the last of the SYNT shares in my accounts yesterday - being 3,100 at just over £1.872477 before costs.

It was the only trade I've done since my last posting.

Raydio - I'm going to be making a further alteration to my system.

I have an overall banked profit from effectively 14 trades of £3425.51

The problem I'm trying to find a solution to (& can't really find one as its going to be a constant variable) is the "saving" or "profit" (depending on your view) on the rights issue money that should have been invested.

If the cash is invested at £1.80 the saving/profit is £660 at £1.75 its £875 & at £1.70 it would be £990. That amount only stays fixed while I hold all the profit shares & the rights issue ones. When I sell some of the rights issue (Yellow ones) then that figure will alter depending on what price I buy them back again!

So there is really no easy solution to the problem :(

The easiest way of showing it I believe is to have it included in the Orange ones.

So Blue will be the banked Profit ones plus the original 550 shares we still have, Orange will be the rights issue saving + another variable amount, Yellow will be fixed at 3,300 shares (the number we should have taken up in the rights issue) & Red will be the trading parcel.

I'll post the new numbers following any purchases.

At the moment with just 550 shares our break-even price is currently £49.95

GLA

LOTM

Hi JPPoubelle

I use Barclays & yes they have a price improver that does get me a much better price than the official quote a lot of the time.

However up until now probably 85%+ of my trades have appeared on the LSE (& I've done 30+ in Genel) yet all of a sudden my 2 trades yesterday & 2 this morning have gone somewhere else!

That's what I'm finding rather strange. As if something different is going on & as you know we'll be the last to find out what it is!

GLA

LOTM

Bought another 2,000 shares this morning & again the trade didn't go through the LSE.

I wonder what they are trying to hide ?

GLA

LOTM

Bought 2 trading parcels (of 10,000 shares each) in Genel in the last 30 mins & neither is showing up on the LSE list.

Looks like the MM's are trying not to wake the bots up !

Could be an interesting afternoon !!!

As we move a day close to the court case.

GLA

LOTM

Hi Gruyere,

Mommur is quite right, this is from the Serica half year report

"Columbus had good initial test rates and started production in November 2021. Flow

rates then declined during the first few months of production and average Columbus

production in 2022 was around 3,800 boe/d gross.

During the first half of 2023, Columbus production has been steady despite some shortterm Shearwater offtake facility outages.

Average net Columbus production of gas and condensate in 1H 2023 for Serica’s

combined 75% interest was 2,300 boe/d (1H 2022: 1,970 boe/d for a 50% interest).

Average net production for the Group’s combined 75% interest in the post-acquisition

period from 23 March to 30 June 2023 was 2,250 boe/d.

The latest independent report of reserves, compiled by RISC Advisory, estimated 2P

reserves of 1.1 million boe net to Serica’s 50% equity interest as at 1 January 2023

(2022: 4.9 million boe) after allowing for production of 0.6 million boe during 2022. An

additional 25% field equity interest was acquired as part of the Tailwind transaction in

March 2023."

In other words its turned out to be a bit of a dud performing much worse than expected & thus its had its reserves revised downwards substantially (like 66% downwards).

600 boepd isn't really going to do much for Capricorn.

GLA

LOTM

Hi RG33,

No the only thing anyone who has sold since the EX-Dividend date is entitled to is the £0.559 dividend that will be paid on 12th Jan 2024.

No Ex-dividend date has been set for the £0.224 cash dividend yet, nor has it been done for the non-cash dividend of £0.561 either.

So if you think your entitled to them, your not.

Season greetings to everyone as well.

LOTM

Hi TSSZ,

I have to disagree, there is very little sign of PI's selling GKP & buying Genel.

The rest I'd agree with it certainly has a lot more upside than GKP in the short term especially with the court case just 5 or 6 weeks away.

They are banking money all the time & getting back some of the overdue payments as well, while GKP isn't doing much better than break even right now.

Yet the clamour is to own GKP right now. Whether that's to do with short's closing out or what I'm not sure, but there is definitely a buyer of GKP out there soaking up all the sells, how much stock they want is a different question.

Genel stock seems to be in pretty short supply & the price would pop if there were a few more buyer around.

GLA

LOTM

Just wanted to wish everyone all the best for the festive season.

I hope you all have as good a time as possible.

Doesn't look like I'll be trading SYNT again for a good few days!

I've got limit orders in place just in case!

Placed slightly higher up than before because they didn't get triggered in that last swift downturn & I missed out by about 5 secs on getting a manual one done, again a costly error for trying to do 2 things at once.

GLA

LOTM

Hi SaintPeter1,

Lots of interesting questions ........

I guess it depends how & where you hold your shares.

Mine are in an ISA & I'm still waiting to find out what would still be retainable within the ISA. Until I know that it will be impossible to know how to proceed.

Ideally I wouldn't mind holding on to the 17% Loan Notes - where else are you going to get that sort of yield & for 3 years on your money ! Yes I know its only paid out at the end of the term, but its compounding all the time. 1000 shares = £2582 to start with 3 years later it will be paying out £4254 to you a gain of £1672

The convertible ones I'm less sure of but they are only due to run for 1 year. A 12% coupon is not to be sneezed at but you only end up with a gain of £124 at the end of the year which is insignificant compared to the loan note one.

As for the non cash dividend in the Bermuda company - who knows what they'd invest the cash in etc It might turn into something worthwhile or it might just be a dud, but it only makes up 5% of the total offer price. £559 invested per 1000 shares.

I don't think any of them are going to be easily tradeable as you put it.

There is still £10.285 of value on offer yet the current share price is miles away from that figure.

It seems madness to sell out at £8.50 ish & just give that £1.75 per share away. That's 20% when you think about it & no access to that 17% yield.

Hopefully the bid price rises as more details emerge & the buy-back takes loose stock out of the market.

Good Luck

LOTM

The bots are working really hard to flush out stock that's for sure.

Even with a wave of selling they just absorb it & look for more.

They might nee another tree shake etc to try & scare a few out.

could easily make the 130p mark the way things are going right now, it just depends what price they've agreed to fill the order at, that might stop it getting there.

GLA

LOTM

I think we're going to see 80p this afternoon

GLA

LOTM

Hi PhilMin,

They could possibly restore the $25M dividend that they intend to payout annually.

However given the current share price it would be much wiser to spend such a sum on a share buy-back at the current ridiculous share price. As there not likely to get such a chance again in the future.

The sooner the better might be the right phrase for it given the court case starts in Feb & a result there would change the whole complexion of things.

GLA

LOTM