Member Info for LOTM-13

Sorry thought this was Tuesday somehow & therefore got my other dates wrong because of it!

APIKUR meeting & Genel update are both on Wednesday.

I think the Genel figures will be quite good by the way. Which might help the others.

LOTM

Hi Tren,

There isn't an incentive in any normal form.

However they have a massive amount of money tied-up in the project including the development wells that its currently drilling etc. It will have PSV's signed up to ferry supplies to the vessel etc & so will be paying for those whether it starts on time or not !

So in that regard it really is in there interest to get it up & running as quickly as it can to start paying back all those billions of capital investment in the project.

Its worth noting the following ..........

There could be a problem with the FPSO.

I wondered why it was hugging the coast after passing Cape Town & not going with the normal traffic flow up towards Senegal, (which it would have reached in just 1 week if it had carried on)

Its at Walvis Bay Anch Namibia !

Maybe its sheltering from a storm or problems with one of the tugs or its engine etc but it would appear to be an unexpected stop on the journey.

Hopefully it gets moving again soon as each passing day is vital for qualifying for that $25M or 50M payment or not at all.

GLA

LOTM

PS its still there 2 days later

Not sure if anyone has spotted this yet ?

https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/210120245

KRG meeting APIKUR & other IOC's tomorrow & then Genel have an update on Thursday !

GLA

LOTM

Not sure if anyone has spotted this yet ?

https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/210120245

KRG meeting APIKUR &other IOC's tomorrow & then the Genel update is on Thursday !

GLA

LOTM

Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/synthomer-lon-synt-investors-sitting-052034339.html

I went digging a bit & found SYNT is covered by 11 different Brokers!

LOTM

Hi GMHK,

You could be right & SYNT may not have hit the bottom yet.

We have had 3 broker updates in the last week, all slightly negative, with price targets of £1.55 & the other 2 over £4 per share. Which is a massive difference in valuation.

The bit that caught my eye (in the info that we saw) was the fact that this could bounce in an instance (there words not mine) & my mind won't let that go for now. £1.20 was 6p in old money, you seem to be looking for 4.5p in old money.

I'm doing nothing with it for now, I'll have a re-think after GENL have there announcement next week & I see what happens its share price. As for IPEL I refuse to "give away" the other £1.75 that I'll get when the take-over completes.

Good Luck

LOTM

They are a useless & clueless set of directors when it comes to buy-backs.

The non executive directors should be making the executive director account for there actions.

A share buy-back is not a tap you turn on & off at the whim of the CEO. There needs to be a clear strategy to it & DEC hasn't got one, simple as that. Which is totally unacceptable.

Buying 100,000 shares one day & none the next is not acceptable. It makes you wonder if they were supporting the price so that one of there "mates" could sell out a large chuck of stock & when there done, well just let it ride. Perception means a lot & the one created by this lot is terrible, amateurish at best.

If you want to set a price at which the buy-back kicks in or doesn't then that's fine.

It should then increase in size (daily purchases) as the price moves lower, to capture the greatest benefit for the company & its shareholders.

Paying off other forms of debt right now makes no sense whatsoever when your cost of equity is probably close to 3 times that of any other debt form you have.

Spend every free $ you have buying in the shares, its going to save you a fortune in future dividend payments.

LOTM

Hi joseywales,

Pretty much stuck in where I didn't want to be ahead of the trading announcement. Not much I can do about it other than try & ride it out.

I hope your not in the same boat.

LOTM

Who on earth is stupid enough to be selling the buyer 150,000 shares at £8.25

That's over £2 below the offer price, in other words the total cost of the purchase of Impellam for them just dropped by over £300,000

GLA

LOTM

Since the share consolidation took place they have bought back just over 435,000 shares so far. Thus approaching 1% of the company.

That will reduce the quarterly dividend bill by over $380,000 per quarter.

The more they buy at these prices, the lower there cost of capital will be & equity is by far there dearest source of capital

LOTM

Hi TSSZ,

That Bulgarian refinery sounds like it needs GKP type crude. I hope you posted the story on the GKP thread for them :)

Ready to take off I'd say, just a case of what the catalyst is ? next weeks numbers or the court case itself

GLA

LOTM

Reply wasn't helpful in the slightest which is pretty disappointing really.

LOTM

Hi FCFY,

If you look at the DNO announcement today they list "gross operated production" to them of 65,773 & net entitlement production of 26,057. The exact same applies to Genel only is 1/3 of the DNO numbers for Tawke.

GLA

LOTM

Hi FCFY,

You're figure's are wrong.

If DNO has FCF of $138M then Genel's would be 1/3 of that figure (75/25% split) ie $46M not $18M.

Yes the arbitration hearing is going to be very interesting indeed & could very well be a game changer for Genel & its shareholders.

I'm not sure why so many GKP followers haven't cottoned on to that fact.

GLA

LOTM

Hi Fkn_Donk,

You should post that info on the Genel BB as they are the ones who own the other 25% of the Tawke licence.

LOTM

Theloanarranger,

Here's the thread, you were talking of investing at 41p a share pre rights which would have been £8.20 now

LOTM

Hi, theloanranger

If you switch to thread mode & look at the one called "opportunity" you'll see what was discussed before about you buying in at some point & the Rights Issue etc.

We are now at 7p pre-rights.

Hi joseywales

Just going to have to let the dust settle & see what there going to do with the share price in the short term. There having a field day right now.

Good Luck

LOTM

Hmm was out this morning & missed the broker downgrade of sorts.

Certainly explains yesterday's actions, as the same thing happened ahead of another downgrade on a company I was looking at a couple of weeks back by jeffries on that occasion. Will be watching for that in future for sure when trading on any company changes like that.

Still has a buy rating & a price target more than twice the current share price !

(Sharecast News) - Analysts at Berenberg lowered their target price on chemicals business Synthomer from 400.0p to 320.0p on Friday as it lowered its operating profit expectations for 2023-25.

Berenberg stated that cyclical stocks with high indebtedness "do not put investors at ease", noting that the more than 80% decline in Synthomer shares over the last 12 months was "a case in point". However, the German bank said it was "more optimistic".

"The firm has a leverage problem, although not a liquidity issue. Last year's £276.0m rights issue has bought time to recover," said Berenberg. "Construction market headwinds mean that the company will, in our view, show minimal progress in organically cutting its absolute net debt pile, even allowing for self-help."

Berenberg, which reiterated its 'buy' rating on the stock, noted that the moment a cyclical recovery, fast or slow, materialises, Synthomer shares should jump - perhaps as drastically as they have fallen.

"We have reduced our operating profit forecasts by a high-single-digit percentage on average for 2023-25, mainly reflecting lower construction-linked margins and volumes. Shares trade on 2025 price-to-earnings ratio of 4.2x, compared to long-run average of around 11.0x. Our price target would imply circa 9.0x," added Berenberg.

LOTM

Yes there are a lot of very cheap undervalued companies out there that's for sure on the LSE.

They don't seem to be trying to push it below £1.55 so I think we've hit the bottom for now. It just a case of when does it bounce & how high does it go, while I new trading range is created.

Good Luck

LOTM

Joseywales

I think this is the bit you were lookng for ................

"Through our near-term actions, end market volume recovery (which alone has the potential to improve Group EBITDA by more than £100m over time) and execution of our strategy, we believe the Group's medium term earnings power is more than double the £158m of continuing EBITDA generated over the year to the end June 2023. Reducing leverage further towards 1-2x target range by end of 2024 remains a key priority. "

LOTM