Member Info for LOTM-13

Hi asimpleinvestor,

Just listen to the Noble Presentation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XI_22QayyxM at 1 hour 41 mins 40 secs in.

There is therefore no reason to think HE1's will not be the same or very similar.

LOTM

Justathought,

I told you the other day your calculations were completely wrong & still at least 14 people are giving it a recommendation when its completely false.

The government doesn't get 75% of the project they will get what is effectively a 16% free carry.

So please don't post such inaccurate information again, when you know its false & entirely misleading.

LOTM

LOTM

I spoke to my Geologist friend a few hours ago.

We were talking about the gas composition & the best way to separate it etc, apparently there are several different Argon isotops with one of them, being very valuable indeed, way over the price of Helium (obviously its for the hardest [most unlikely] one to have/find - but you never know HE1 might be lucky in that regard).

Oxygen can be highly corrosive to the equipment, so they'll want to deal with that as soon as possible when they sequence things, to stop that from happening.

He say's its very clear that they have found a granatic basement. They are in the right terrain at the right depth.

The next most important question that needs answering is the flow rates (& thickness's).

Its hard for him to shed more light on things until more information becomes available.

My thought that as they de-water a zone, the gas would start to come out of it in the zone itself & that they'd then be able to recover that (a bit like a gas cap) separately seems highly unlikely from what he was saying.

GLA

LOTM

Https://www.rudaw.net/sorani/world/1802202410

Part of it says .....

"There is good progress in the last visit with the Iraqi Oil Ministry. The current dispute is over the cost of investment. This is different between the Kurdistan Region and the Kurdistan Regional Government," he said Baghdad, because the Kurdistan Region was forced to rely on itself and sell oil because of budget cuts. We in the Kurdistan Region did not have the money to bring companies and pay them to explore and extract oil for us We have given all the contracts to the Iraqi government, the Kurdistan Regional Government has provided all the details. Because Iraq is a state and all the oil wells and things belong to them, they only pay for services, not for anything else They have no partners. Now there is a public will and the Iraqi prime minister believes that Iraq is the first to suffer.

Good Luck

LOTM

Hi TerryM1,

Are you serious ? ........

"Still can’t understand why DEC do not do a dividend script issue, a lot who take up the script offer will keep the shares and money save in the dividend can buy back shares which will be cancelled so at worst a neutral affect but in reality more shares in the long term holder’s hands and less for shorting/day traders."

"Dividend script issues" are part of the reason Shell & BP cost there shareholders $10's of billion's in lost value through the biggest legal ponzi scheme's invented!

Issue lots of shares at a depressed share price - causing lots of dilution & then start to buy them back in the market, only for the share price to recover to where it had been before, now the company doesn't have the cash to buy them all back. So its dividend bill increases even more, the bear market in the commodity starts to turn into a bull one & the share price goes much higher, suddenly the shares issued for $2B in dividends are costing double that to buy back.

Only ever offer a Dividend script issue when your shares & the commodity price is at or near the top of the cycle.

LOTM

Hi blackrocktrader,

Its a personal view of what's about to unfold.

The winter has been mild & so nat gas in storage at the end of it will be much higher than recent years, probably around the 2,150 BCF mark (that's pretty much 500+ BCF above the 5 year average & 400+ BCF above last year) which is darn close to 50% of actual storage capacity. Production is at record levels & there is issues occurring with the LNG facilities. That's going to lead to significant above average injections into storage come April.

By the time we get to early September (even with record summer cooling demand) it will be very apparent that the storage facilities are going to be near full capacity if not at it before the end of October.

That's what will drive nat gas prices to around the $1 mark etc (over supply & not enough demand).

We'll find out if I'm right or not in due course.

LOTM

Hi jun_man,

You can do it either way, buy in advance of the ex-dividend date if you wish & tender the dividend on all the shares including the new ones or tender all your existing share's dividend & buy the appropriate number of shares say on the 25th/26th March as you'll have a good idea what the average price you're going to receive is at that point with 3 of the 5 days data.

I know some people will lose a little, I'm asking everyone to accept a possible small loss by doing this because of the greater good it does in the longer term for everyone. Sadly a lot of people don't seem to get that, there worried about a few £'s now when the effect of not doing this could affect them by £100's a year from now. If they don't get that and act selfishly then they can only blame themselves & no-one else further down the line.

Hi hghotshot,

See my post from 03:31 1st of all.

A special dividend is the term usually associate with a return of capital in some way, an ordinary dividend usually comes from the company's income.

They are buying back the shares in the market, but they have limited free cash-flow to do so, as much of it goes to paying the ordinary quarterly dividend. The share price is extremely low so its an ideal time for them to buy in a lot of shares at once. By allowing the quarterly dividend money to be used to enhance the amount available to purchase shares, your helping to reduce the quarterly dividend bills in future & thus enhancing the companies overall financial health.

Hi stuGGTTH

Its not about increasing the value of your holding.

The dividend is the most expensive form of debt the company has by a fact of at least 3 currently.

If you don't join in, then if the dividend ends up being cut in the near term, then don't look to blame anyone but yourself for it happening. Simply because you weren't willing to help reduce the amount paid out from $42M per quarter down to say $39-40M this time round & to @ $37M when the process is repeated in June & I'm sure they'll want to do it in September as well depending on the share price of course.

Hi machin,

Why on earth would you want them to reduce the debt ahead of lowering the dividend cost, when the dividend is costing them at least 3 times the interest rate on the debt, that's just throwing money away instead of saving it.

LOTM

Hi Gavstar-NBC,

Sadly the end of your post say's it all "I came to the conclusion that for me it is best to wait until the next divi announcement, which is not far away instead."

Your not seeing the bigger picture here & clearly don't want to be a team player, you reap what you sow.

To try & answer some of your earlier questions in the posting.

Capricorn Energy (CNE) carried out 2 large special dividends in 2023 followed by share consolidations straight afterwards, they went from 315M shares in issue to 148M & then down to 95.5M. They also had share buy-back program running, they initially found it pretty easy to buy in the shares after the 1st consolidation, but much harder to do after the 2nd one. They had hope to complete it by year end but didn't get close, they still had around 30% to do by then. There down to around 22% now & it looks like it will be the end of June at least before its complete.

DEC will quite possibly run into the same issue over time as daily trading volumes drop. The longer a buy-back takes the more chance there is for the share price to move considerably either up or down.

Given where Dec's share price is right now (around 45 - 47p in old money) getting to purchase 5% or more of your stock all at once at that price is good for long term holders of the shares.

Your not being asked to tender a % of your holding, your being asked to take the dividend in the form of capital instead of income & by doing so they'll reduce the number of share you hold accordingly.

If you own 100 shares then the dividend you're going to receive is $87.50 or roughly £69.17 less withholding tax etc

If you agree to the tender offer instead, then they will buy £69.17 of shares of you at the average share price +5% over the 5 business days from 20th - 26th March. So if the share price average was £9.25 they'll pay you £9.71 for them instead.

Which means you'll now have 93 shares instead of 100.

All you need to do then is buy them back in the market if you want to have the same number of shares as you had previously. Yes you'll have a dealing fee to pay for doing so, but you'll have been a team player in doing this & reducing the amount the company has to pay out in dividends quarterly.

They've clearly spoken to the large shareholders about it so I would expect a pretty good take-up of the offer by them, you really want to see 50% plus of shareholders participating, 66%+ would be even better.

I think that answer's all your questions.

LOTM

Looks like I have a lot of replies to do .........

but 1st some general comments -

This is about each of you looking yourself in the mirror in the morning & asking am I a team player or not ?

If your not, then a year or less from now when problems arise because of your failure to join in & you look in the mirror each & everyday wondering what went wrong, the only person you can really blame is the person you see in that mirror - YOU.

The selfish one who couldn't see that a possible SMALL short term loss was going to bring you a much larger longer term benefit instead.

It would be great if the company had large amounts of free cashflow (money) to go around buying back there shares at cheap prices, but they don't because most of there free cash-flow is used to payout a significant quarterly dividend instead.

I suspect the big shareholders are going to go ahead & take part in this tender offer because they don't want to see the dividend cut in the near future either & know this is a sensible way of helping to address the issue & reduce the quarterly strain on the company without affecting the yield etc.

I'm going to say take-up is going to be around 50% with all of you chipping in this time round (that's 2.4M less shares in issue at the end of it) and in 3 month's time the take up rate will increase when its repeated although that might equate to less shares being bought-back due to the share price etc.

I'm also going to make a prediction, one you should all bear in mind, the next USA Natural Gas bear market is on its way & by September will be in full view with nat gas prices getting close to the $1 mark & lucky if they get near $2 at all next winter.

That's when DEC would want to be buying up distressed assets, that add value to the business because of synergies they have with the existing portfolio, benefits others simply can't achieve with those same assets.

To do that the company will need to be in the best possible shape balance sheet wise by that time if's it's not to be restricted in what it can or can't purchase.

So don't come moaning later saying you didn't see the down turn coming .....

LOTM

Plenty of reading for you to catch up on the story .......

hTTps://www.shafaq.com/en/Report/U-S-report-says-al-Sudani-defies-political-pressure-and-tilts-toward-Washington

hTtps://insightiraq.com/articles/apikur-calls-for-us-to-put-baghdad-on-notice-over-politically-motivated-exports-halt/

hTTps://www.rudaw.net/sorani/business/150220242

Not sure people will want to be out of this over the weekend, too big a risk in case of developments from all of this.

LOTM

Batr,

Its not a 16% equity stake the government would get, its effectively a 16% free carry, similar to what happens in oil & gas leases in the USA in particular.

In Texas for example the landowners usually get a 25% NRI (net revenue interest). So you'll usually conversely see company's saying they have a 100% WI in a lease/ property or field or 75% NRI. In other states it can vary, same on federal or state land, sometimes it can be as low as 12.5%.

So 16% is fair enough, although it will feel more like 25% & that's because of the cost of running the processing plant/ plants, something you don't have to deal with with normal oil & nat gas extraction.

LOTM

Hi Moorscloud,

I wouldn't want to make any calculations at this time. As there are far to many unknown variables out there yet.

From past experience, the cost of power will be one of the most important ones to look out for.

Good Luck

LOTM

Hi Justathought,

I'm sorry but your numbers are completely wrong I'd say ( Yes I'm the one who said its $650M per MCF for current new contracts) because Noble Helium said in the RIU presentation that the terms they had meant the Tanzania Government would get 16% free carried interest on development.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XI_22QayyxM (at 1 hour 41 mins 45 secs in)

I would therefore say that HE1's terms will be similar to those of Noble Helium & thus blowing your 75% to the government figure out of the water.

LOTM

Now I know most on here won't believe this but 24 hours ago, I was actually thinking about DEC paying the ordinary dividend not as an ordinary dividend but as a special dividend followed by a corresponding share consolidation. Because that would be in the best interests of the company shareholders as it reduces the amount of shares in issue by a large amount all at once & thus reduces the amount the company pays out in dividends going forward, without cutting the dividend per share to anyone.

Instead the company announced another way of doing virtually the same thing.

If you are invested in DEC for the long term, then I would urge you to help the company by tendering your shares for the full amount of the dividend you would otherwise have received & you get roughly the same amount as a capital return. Yes I know there are complexities around withholding tax etc, but this is not about that its about making the company much stronger financially than it is today. By helping the company you're actually helping yourself longer term, by ensure the dividend stream is maintained for years to come & doesn't get cut & over time the market will realise that & adjust the share price upwards accordingly.

If your someone who normally re-invests there DEC dividend when you receive it, this this time round buy those extra shares - pre 29th Feb ( if you have the funds) & then tender all your dividend (including those for the new shares) to the offer.

You need to think of this as a massive share buy-back on a single day & you want to see as much as possible of that $42M being used for that purpose rather than cash leaving the company & not helping the company. You don't really lose out financially but the upside for the company is significant.

This will hurt the shorter & non believers over time, once the company does this 2 or 3 more times & I'm sure they will you'll start to see its effect compound.

$42M could let them buyback around 3.6M shares (that's roughly 7.6% of the company)

Now I know that won't happen but for anyone genuinely interested in DEC succeeding, you want to see as many shares taken-out of the market as possible. Just look at how much less the company is going to have to payout quarterly in future without cutting the dividend per share rate. 3.6M less shares would mean a reduction of $3.1M per quarter in the cost to the company ! That's over $12M per year.

Shareholders need to work as a team on this & fully support the company on this matter end of story.

Yes it might cost you a very small amount of money right now but a year from now you'll be glad you helped out.

GLA

LOTM

Wow gone Ex-Dividend for the 56.2p a share payout in shares & no drop in the share price at all.

LOTM

Here's something for people to ponder .........

Since it was a "company led placing"

I would expect another RNS within the next 2 days detailing the directors new shareholdings in the company.

Which in itself may reveal some interesting information .......

LOTM

Hi suppersaints66,

If you've got in at the ground floor level of all these spin off companies you must have amassed considerable wealth, just like Lord Ashcroft.

If instead you got in higher up the ladder with these investments then you won't be anywhere near as well of.

Good Luck

LOTM

Thunder2040

No idea - unless its a last shake of the tree to shake loose weak holders so they can re-fill there holdings.

I don't think I'd want to be out of this over the weekend, that's for sure ......

The total silence from APIKUR following on from that Iraq meeting the other day speaks volumes, usually they're saying something publicly about it within 24 hours ....................

LOTM

Fabulous article, very long & detailed, well worth a read.

Looks like that's another box ticked off the list of things that need to happen, may well be linked to yesterday's meeting in Dubai between Erdogan & Barzani

LOTM

InvestingGoals,

He was talking about de- waterize to de-pressurizing & therefore payback on the wells will be very quick.

If you think about it, its quite possible the water was in these reservoirs first of all & the Helium & other gases came in later & therefore only so much of it can go into solution before the water becomes saturated. If each reservoir was full of water there might only be a tiny gas cap in each or none at all. Any that weren't full of water then its more likely that, that reservoir has a gas cap.

So think forward, if you start to de- waterize a zone, 2 things should potentially happen, you'll get Helium in the water that comes to surface, but in the reservoir as the water level drops, so will the pressure & the gases will be able to start coming out of the water & create a gas cap if you like!

Hmm lots more questions for my geologist friend for sure. See what I'm right with & wrong about to

Good Luck

LOTM