Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

I'm not forgetting anything.

As I said before, all that info (including originally being ahead of schedule) are known, so priced in.

Kaeren - Sure. However, all this positive info is known, so already priced in.

What ISN'T yet known is whether the casing will be suvccessful. And that (plus the delayed timetable) is what's causing the price to bob around at its current level rather than testing any new highs.

You may be confident. But there's nothing totally concrete as yet to back that up. Which is why the market's adopting a more cautious watch & wait approach.

Kaeren - sure. But if re-entry proved necessary, it would come at a cost. Whilst Hex has plenty of cash still, every additional setback depletes their buffer slightly.

I know what you mean about being "futher derisked", but I'm not sure I agree entirely. A weakness was identified on first drill and this now has to be overcome (either by casing or by drilling somewhere else). A risk has therefore been identified which wasn't previously known about. And whilst they may be reasonably confident they can overcome it, any sane investor should remain cautious until they confirm it's solved. Or not, in which case I suspect the SP would drop significantly, however good the longer term prospects might still seem.

Current discount to NAV is a percentage or two above the average since April.

But SMT has always traded at a discount to NAV over the past year, ranging from about -4% to -18%.

It's currently around -11%, so somewhere in the middle.

Nicknaim - you DO realise how daft your investment strategy sounds? "Bought more 515p, next buy sub 500p".

So you claim you bought today at 515p, even though you seemingly expect to be able to buy again sub 500p.

Some logic!

Just because they've risen modestly today, having fallen calamitously prior, what makes them such a "great buy" now?

Sounds very dodgy investment logic to me. I certainly won't be adding a penny whilst Gross still has anything to do with these outfits. He has totally misled investors, whilst trousering vast sums at our expense.

Didn't theofficecat tell us he'd invested in Hex recently?

Yet now he/she/it sees nothing but negatives ahead. Weird to invest first, then do due diligence only to change your mind completely.

Unless theofficecat isn't being totally straight with us.... No Dreamies for you from now on.

As for that IC update, Simon Thompson has been championing Tek since the 40p days.

He's been consistently wrong, so I wouldn't pay a blind bit of notice to anything he comes out with.

Anyone else notice how Lordmakealoss has gone very quiet all of a sudden?

Beachhouse - SMT tends to be overweight in fairly cyclical sectors. So investors have to be prepared for high volatility & some periods of severe underperformance.

The flipside - in theory at any rate - is that we also "over-benefit" from any periods of upside.

That has been the pattern historically. Though as the saying goes, past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future......

Beachhouse - on that basis, by the law of averages, SMT should be above £15.16 by Nov 2027.

Can we hold you to that?!

Seamanp911 - it's NOT that long ago.

Tate & Lyle launched in 2012, but were still marketing it in 2017/18. You can see the date at the bottom of that PDF flyer.

Sheephatch - That's because it is!

I highlighted this issue well before Microsalt IPO'd and was shot down in flames at the time.

The optimists said Microsalt's crystal size was different - as if that would somehow guarantee its success, when similar products by other far more established names had failed.

The lack of contract wins suggests the food manufacturing giants are at best taking their time over due diligence. They've already requested reformulation in one or more cases, as this was mentioned in a previous Salt RNS.

More likely, they see that there are already far cheaper low sodium salt alternatives out there. Whilst these contain potassium chloride, they still tend to receive good consumer reviews in terms of taste.

Money talks. As long as Microsalt pitches itself with premium pricing, offering a USP which isn't necessarily all that distinctive on flavour (or prized by the end user), I don't see a flood of significant new contract wins any time soon.

And it's weird how long the alleged existing wins are taking before they can be made public. I know the food industry sometimes moves slowly with NPD & can be protective of naming names & announcing timescales pre-launch. But even so.

I think getting rid of fund managers just a few years into post - particularly if that fund is designed to be held long term by investors - would be highly dangerous & likely to backfire.

What sort of signals would it send? a) Panic b) Undermined confidence c) Confusion - short termism in a fund with a stated long term investment strategy

If after 5 years a fund has consistently under-performed, that might be the time to bring in someone new to oversee operations, working alongside the existing managers to try to turn things round.

SMT has shown slightly more resilience of late anyway. It wasn't that long ago that SMT tended to magnify ANY dip in growth stocks & the Nasdaq, whilst it didn't always mirror the upturns.

More recently though, I sense it has weathered the downturns slightly better. Probably tempting fate now!

LWHL - agreed. Though sadly you can say the same of most companies.

Directors do very nicely when results are good. And when results are dire, they also tend to do very nicely.

Sheephatch - I know you weren't addressing me, but I'd be very careful before buying in if I were you.

I've been predicting for some time that Salt looked likely to fall back below its IPO price. Which it now has.

The reason for this is lack of firm progress with any significant new contracts (other than some salt shaker placements, which aren't going to cut it).

Tate & Lyle launched a fairly similar product to Microsalt years ago and could never make a commercial success of it. It flopped & AFAIK has now been withdrawn altogether :

www.tateandlyle.com/sites/default/files/2017-08/SODA-LO%C2%AE%20Salt%20Microspheres-Sell%20Sheet%20EMEA-112216_A4_EN-GB%20(1).pdf

If they couldn't succeed, with all their resources & market expertise, do you really believe Microsalt can?

Don't panic everyone.

Lordmakeabigmistake loaded up the other day. So I'm sure all will be well.

Shandypants2 - I get why there might have been a timing issue between reportable sales & sales orders in the very early days.

But to me, given SOH's frequent reports of new partners being signed/new products launched, this sales lumpiness should largely have been smoothed out by now. You can't keep saying "we're selling more", then report a 21.3% decrease, as happened in the latest half year report.

I think what Opti lacks most is a switched-on social media marketing person/team/freelance expert with millions of active consumer followers. Opti's own website should really be generating low £millions at the very least by now. And whilst we were told in the latest TU that e-commerce sales have tripled. Three times not very much equals not a lot more.

Mol42 - taking a “glass half full” view for a moment, If SOH eventually actually hits one of his loftier forecasts, just imagine how the SP will react (once we’ve all picked ourselves up from the floor & poured a stiff drink to get over the shock).

I can actually still just about imagine this happening some day. Hopefully before I croak.

Lordmakealotlessthanyouthink - good to hear you're stalking me around all the forums, reading my informed posts. You might actually learn something one day.

Just to set the record straight, I'm not "always pessimistic". Note the spelling by the way.

I'm just a realist who tries to see companies the way they actually are. Rather than the way we'd like them to be. Where they've consistently underperformed & failed to deliver on their past shareholder commitments, I'll call them out.

You, on the other hand, seem to view persistent underperformance as an opportunity to pile in & buy more at a beaten up price. Least, that's what your constant fantasy share league comments imply.

Well, you may get lucky in your own head. But nobody else is unduly bothered either way. Least of all me. So I wish you luck trawling the penny share scrapheaps & have popped you on filter, as it's starting to get boring now. Bye bye Lordmakeverylittle.