Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

BigBiteNow - I really don't think any one poster on this - or any other - board is really going to have a material impact on the SP.

If you're confident in your analysis and have some spare funds, then by all means go ahead & add.

Personally, I expect Hex to drift slightly further in the coming weeks, so am biding my time (though I have retained half my original holding at this point).

As for the apparent valuation disparity between HE1 & Hex, perhaps HE1 benefits to an extent from being the earlier mover.

HE1 potentially being overvalued doesn't necessarily mean Hex is undervalued. Just that there's more froth with HE1.

BigBiteNow - fair enough. However, the early finish on the Clink #1 original drill is offset by the subsequent hitch & delay whilst their new rig is sourced. Both are known about - so probably largely priced in - though the degree of delay & cost isn't fully quantifiable yet.

BigBiteNow - I think you're giving out slightly mixed messages on timescales.

One minute you say:

"I can see a situation where a quicker drill time leads to some sort of bonus".

The next:

"I am not saying it will be quicker because that's just guessing. I am simply pointing out that rig acquisition doesn't have to be anywhere near a month."

Let's face it, nobody knows how long it'll take. I agree, if we get a positive timeline update well within 4 weeks, that could boost the SP slightly. Equally, if we don't hear within 4 weeks, that might have the opposite effect.

Whatever the market's doing over at HE1 is largely irrelevant to Hex investors. The fact is, our investor base has been far more wary to date and is - sensibly in my view - waiting for firm evidence of commercial finds before getting too carried away. The current share price reflects this caution.

BigBiteNow - I think the subdued SP (after the rapid initial doubling+ from IPO level) has surprised many.

I guess the reason for this - i.e. what you’re missing - is:

a) Wireline logging & flow testing are yet to be undertaken. And these are really the acid test when it comes to determining whether the first well is commercial

b) The recent delay in the drilling schedule came as a surprise, leaving investors wondering whether further unforeseen hitches could lie ahead. Though Hex will remain fully funded, the revised rig will eat into their reserves. And we don’t know by how much yet, uncertainty always . being a major headwind for any share. Whilst Hex has a good safety cushion for now still, that cushion has shrunk a bit.

c) Hex has always communicated previous news promptly & clearly and investors will have valued that. Now we face a lull for a few weeks and there’s unlikely to be as much info to latch onto. IMHO, this may give some investors pause to re-assess &/or speculate about why no news is forthcoming which may create a short term SP drag here.

MasksNewNorm - they were indeed two weeks ahead, but that was already a known, so it was priced in.

The RNS introduced an unknown. And to an extent it remains an unknown - i.e.

1) How long exactly will it take to secure the new rig? We've been given an initial indication of around 4 weeks, but it could happen sooner. Or later.

2) Will there be any further - as yet unforeseen - hitches?

3) What proportion of Hex's reserves will have to be spent on this glitch? (presumably somewhere between 10% & 25%?)

Share prices are largely a battle between optimists & pessimists. A few days ago, the optimists were in charge with wireline logging results seemingly imminent. Now, we face a lean couple of weeks or so news-wise. And with nothing new the optimists can really latch on to, I suspect a degree of caution & doubt to hold sway.

I get what the optimists are saying and agree Ingomar looks pretty promising in the medium term.

That said, yesterday's RNS was bad news short term. No ifs no buts.

It introduced delay, extra cost & a degree of uncertainty about what other potential unforeseen hitches might lie ahead (however successful the final outcome).

It stand to reason & you can't explain a sudden drop in the SP of over 20% any other way.

Hex is a company that thrives on news and has been very good at communicating it regularly & effectively.

Now, we're entering what I believe will be a relatively lean newsflow period for a few weeks until the replacement rig is sourced & mobilised. For that reason, I don't see there being the same impetus there was previously to keep the share price buoyant.

Don't get me wrong - I'm not expecting it to tank. But it wouldn't surprise me if it drifted slightly - beyond today's low - before stabilising & then hopefully picking up again, assuming positive wireline logging.

I suspect most PIs wanting to top up already took that opportunity yesterday. It's for these reasons I converted half my Hex holding back into cash yesterday afternoon. I'll be investing this portion back into Hex within the next few weeks, assuming my hunch is right & the opportunity arises to buy back in at a slightly lower price.

Butch123 - sorry for the mix up.

I filtered CB a while ago so I don’t have to wade through his nonsense posts any more. Hence the confusion.

Moneymule888 - filtered (for being too brainless to grasp even the most basic rational argument).

Butch123 - we shall see.

To me, it's more of an insurance policy, protecting half my capital from potential further falls, whilkst still having half in play,

I'll let you know if I manage to buy in lower (sub 17.17p) in the coming weeks. I'd be surprised if I can't, but who knows? One thing's for certain - you don't any more than me.

Just sold half my holding.

As I posted first thing this morning, I'm surprised at how mild today's fall has been.

Given there's now around a 4 week lull, I'm hoping I'll be able to buy back in at some point at a lower price. Not much lower, just a penny or two per share. I may even find I'm able to trade in & out a few times in the coming weeks to average down.

And if not, I'll just have to be content with the SP rise in the remaining 50% of my holding.

Art123 - I suspect DM & BS know just a little bit more about drilling than you do (methinks your knowledge is probably confined to a Black & Decker at best).

BlueSky72 - I was quoted 16.375p to SELL just now (iweb).

Surprised TBH that this has held up so well so far.

AmorAmor77 - who knows where the SP will be in a month's time. I'm afraid you don't any more than the next person.

A lot can happen in that time. Especially in the US, which will be just a few weeks from knowing the Presidential election outcome by then. And if US markets rise or fall in that interim period, the rest of the world will broadly follow.

As I posted just now, the story HAS changed. Today's RNS injects fresh uncertainty & means Hex will have to spend more of their reserve cash on somethinhg they weren't expecting to be an issue.

I remain a holder, but am toying with part-selling today in the hope of buying back in lower down over the next month. Decisions, decisions!

Jungmana - true. However, the extra cost of the new rig is money they won't now have spare, so it reduces their "reserves" still.

OAPK20 - try reading this morning's RNS again. "While preparing the hole for wireline logging, the rig encountered caving."

Wireline logging only started at the end of last week.

Brentw1 - Oberon will have had NO idea about the hitch. They added last Friday.

Ihavenoclue - markets hate uncertainty, so they won’t take the news well. I’m puzzled why you’re unsure about the likely reaction..

Longer term, this may eventually just look like a bump in the road. But today’s movement won’t be pretty.

Posters here have named Oberon as the seller for weeks now.

Yet there have been no TR1s since 13 August. So Oberon can't have been offloading in any great volume, as they'd have had to notify well before now.

Chances are, it's a number of different institutional & private sellers de-risking.

Not to mention the fact that some of the midprice transactions reported as sells are probably buys.

Having now filtered all the loons, there's not a lot left to read.

But at least what little remains makes some valuable contributions.

Just remember folks, those pundits predicting either untold riches or imminent destitution abasetheir posts on absolute zilch.

And they know they can't really lose.

If - by fluke - their predictions eventually come good, they'll say I told you so. And if they prove spectacularly wrong, they'll disappear into the night, faster than you can say "busted".