Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

Ilovesushi - there's ALWAYS a reason for a drop of that magnitude.

What you mean is, you don't know what it is yet. Which is a very different matter.

Scrodingerscat - agreed. Though aren’t Lanstead’s monthly payments subject to the SP remaining above 2p?

Anyone else tuning into their webinar at 12.00 noon today?

The results gernerally look solid to me. Not spectacular, but no real nasties either. Store numbers are up 8 (just under 3% of their total estate), so you'd expect a small uplift from this alone.

I'm pleasantly surprised by the significant pick up in retail sales (& to a lesser extent margin), as these were largely what clobbered sentiment post-Christmas 2023.

It's good to know pledge book redemption levels have now normalised. But less good that this was "later than anticipated".

I was expecting an interim divi of 7.5p, so 7p's a bit underwhelming IMHO. Especially if a 7.7% divi increase is supposed to reflect "the Board's confidence in the future prospects for the Group".

All in all, nothing to frighten the horses. But nothing to put rocket boosters under the share price either for now. That said, the SP had increased significantly over the past 2-3 days, so today's "adjustment" simply brings us back to where we were a week ago. The spread on this share varies enormously, making the current reported drop of 22p highly misleading & frankly meaningless.

BeanCounting - I take your point, but the update says:

"Sales orders for the first six months of the current year were under £600K, approaching the FY 2023 reported revenue of £644K which was subsequently surpassed at the end of July 2024."

The way I read this is that some progress (& growth) IS being made. By July this year, sales orders had exceeded the WHOLE of last FY.

However, unless I'm missing something, because IFRS 15 accounting rules dictate reported revenues can only be included when goods are accepted by the customer, there is a timing issue in terms of reported revenues in H1 2024 accounts. So reported revenues will be significantly lower as a result of this timing lag.

Martinu - re: Dr Morepen, I take it to mean this could contribute c. £6-7 million revenue PER YEAR by the end of the 4-5 year period. Which would be transformational. But as we all know, SOH's previous forecasts have been way off.

I'd say this part of the update sums it up:

" If OptiBiotix can leverage this market interest by increasing customer awareness of its products either directly through social media channels or indirectly through its partners, the Company has the potential to build a successful and profitable business."

In other words, if we get our sales & marketing act together, we might actually start making some money.

As others have said, without the potential for Sweetbiotix to transform things here, most of us would be long gone.

No XXXX Sherlock!

So more news likely within the next couple of days according to Bo.

Couerdelion - Don't get your logic I'm afraid.

Why will new investors be buying into the company at a discount?

Aren't you ignoring the likely upwards re-rate in Tek's SP if they announced the special dividend(s) promised all those years back were finally going to materialise?

Naheedout - it's unclear how many of today's trades ARE actually sales.

The share price remains up, so overall you'd assume more buying than selling volume.

And as NewboF pointed out, there may be several sellers alongside all the buyers. In which case a TR1 won't materialise, as it takes a significant shift in a % holding to trigger this.

Naheedout - as I pointed out at the time, only the sellers know when they've finished selling.

Pointless trying to second guess.

Couerdelion - agreed.

Re: reinvestment vs distribution, I firmly believe realised profits should be used to fund special dividends, as this was what long term investors were promised.

It may then mean Tek has to follow up with a cash raise for new investments. But I'd argue that's for potential new investors to weigh up before piling up. It shouldn't be down to existing investors to assume the risk on new holdings without first being rewarded for the old ones.

Oleric - assuming those figures are correct, it's the exact opposite of what you'd expect.

Amazon charges third party sellers hefty commission. So you'd expect Opti's prices there to be at least as high as selling direct.

Amazon officially frown upon/outlaws pricing above that on other sites - including a seller's own. But I've often seen this in practice. Presumably because Amazon turns a blind eye (or more likely is too dozy to notice).

Thanks CuriousCat9 & Trek

My takeaway is the odds have improved, but it's kinda still all down to whether concentrations & flow rates come up trumps.

For some reason my previous post has been deleted, so let's try again. It seemed a perfectly valid question to me and is neither meant to ramp or deramp - simply intending to establish some facts.

Trek? Others?

Does anyone with sector experience know roughly what proportion of gas shows end up being commercially viable?

It would be useful to know how much the odds have narrowed following this morning's announcement.

Thanks

Does anyone with sector experience know roughly what proportion of gas shows end up being commercially viable?

It would be useful to know roughly how much the odds have narrowed, following this morning's announcement.

Thanks

Couerdelion - I agree, though surely ALL investors want to buy & sell at some point.

I’m not convinced divestment would be welcomed by long-suffering holders if the proceeds were immediately reinvested, rather than distributed.

Especially if it went into AI, as I suspect that ship will have sailed long before any micro AI project incubated by Tek could produce any tangible return.

Most posts here just seem to oscillate between different holdings that are definitely going to turn everything round. Not so long ago (pre-IPO), it was Lucyd. Then Microsalt. Now Guident.

Yet after all these years, none has delivered to date.

Lordmakealot - news of that sort would obviously be welcome. Whether it would have much long term impact on TEK’s SP is debatable though, for reasons I’ve previously mentioned (ad nauseam!)

Giancotti - agreed.

Waiting for potential to materialise is often (not always) a mug's game.

If investors truly believe in the potential, a company's share price normally rises in advance of any materialisition, as people pile in anticipating a future uplift. This, in effect, often creates a virtuous circle.

To date, most investors clearly don't believe in the potential of Tek's holdings - or more importantly its business model. Hence the flat to worsening share price and the huge discount to NAV.

Oldapache - I love you too.

Only difference being I manage to stay civilised without resorting to juvenile bad language.

Hi Trek

Thanks for your open & comprehensive reply.

I guess what you're mainly saying is that you HAVE de-risked, in that you're "only" investing money from profits already made elsewhere. Which makes sense.

Unfortunately I didn't get in at the beginning with Hex. And whilst I'm currently still narrowly above water here, I'm reluctant to recoup my capital, leaving such a relatively small residual stake. I had hoped to resell half at double my entry price, but that opportunity never arose. Least it hasn't so far!

So I think I'll just take the gamble this comes good further down the track. And be mindful of the significant risk I could lose pretty much the lot.