Member Info for londondan

Purely on the numbers for me. I've always been aware of the business, but was never a massive fan personally (although I can see why others are). I saw it tipped by a couple of respectable sources within a day or two of each other back in the summer so decided to have a look. My own research suggested this was worth my investment, so I got in shortly afterwards. So far, touch wood, it's looking like a really good buy!

P.S. There it is - 52 week high hit today!

I was thinking exactly the same. Bought in at £4.92 in the summer and have seen a massive uplift in almost no time at all. I looked at it in more detail this week and decided to hold tight. You're right about the dividends - that alone makes it a worthwhile hold in my view. GAW has rapidly become one of the top-performing shares in my portfolio!

This share has been rising at an extraordinary rate this past few weeks. I thought 600p was a great achievement, but we're soaring way past that now.

Agreed. I was hoping to see the price tick up a little higher on sale news, but a tick back up to mid-130's would be welcome. Off to a good start today by the looks of it.

Patchy, I think you have a number of good points there and at least one which misses the mark. On one hand, you’re correct that the AS business was more profitable and therefore it’s a big decision to let it go. However they’ve sold it at a very high multiple, even by sector standards. There’s a lot of change/M&A going on in the sector at present, so they’ve managed to get rid of it at the perfect time, for a cracking price. I’d say UHS has overpaid significantly for it actually, but as a CMBN shareholder I can hardly complain! That said, the business is now going to be significantly smaller, for sure. Being debt free with a mostly-freehold property portfolio goes a long, long way in this sector so they’re definitely in a good spot. If some of the old habits of the BOD come back – taking on way more debt, paying over the odds to acquire competitors etc. – then I’ll start to reduce my holding and take my profits. I’ll be watching closely from here and won’t be afraid to sell if I think they’re wasting the good position which they currently find themselves in. I don’t agree with your reading of ‘the dividend’ however, as it isn’t a proper dividend at all. This is some of the proceeds of the AS business sale being passed back to shareholders. We’ll have to wait and see what happens with the ‘proper’ dividends when they resume next year. I’d probably stay out of CMBN if I were you to be honest, as 100% of your posts on LSE to date have been expressing some level of scepticism towards this share – there’s obviously something there which you’re fundamentally not comfortable with.

It's a bit disappointing that it hasn't held around the 150p mark which it hit at the open, but to be honest I'm less concerned about that. The business will be left in a really strong position once this completes, which is what is more important. Wiping out that debt is a really big step.

Completely agree. This is great news for long-term holders - 'repay its existing indebtedness in full', with further cash being returned to shareholders. This leaves us in such a great position. As tempting as it is to take some profits here, I think I'll continue to hold. Incidentally, I picked UHS/Cygnet as one of my two bets for the eventual buyer in a post here back on November 4th. Good to see that prediction coming true! ;-)

Here we go! Sale confirmed to Cygnet's owners UHS. Promises to be a very interesting morning!

Also, did anyone else notice about half a million pounds worth of shares being sold in two tranches yesterday?! We've rebounded quickly today at least.

A (circa) £400m deal isn't going to complete overnight. Patience is required here I feel!

Best of luck GoldD! Time will tell whether or not you were wise to cash out just before the Adult Services sale completes...

What a day! Divi payout tomorrow as well. I see what you mean about that temptation - I've made a very sizeable gain in almost no time at all too. However the management seems to be on the ball here and the business is doing very well. This is a hold for me.

Called it again Borgy - you're getting good at this! Nice blue day on the cards again folks - great to see!

We're on the move today, up around 5% to 128p. I wonder if word is beginning to get out about the sale? The Priory / PiC merger/carve out got the all-clear from the CMA yesterday.

Price dropped as low as 113p this morning, which made me slightly nervous, but by about 9:00 we were right back on track. In fact, most of my (UK) stocks have now levelled out again after falling at the open.

£400m would be about 10x EBITDA, which is comparable to other similar deals in the sector in recent years. Alpha Hospitals went for about 10x I think, whereas Priory was more like 11x.

Certainly seems that way. No major price moves now by the looks of it - everyone is just holding tight for news.

Interesting Genty! My money is one of two owners/operators already in the sector. Guesses would be: BC Partners - Currently purchasing 22 Priory/PiC sites. Adding the Cambian Adults business would give them an amazing platform for a buy & build play. UHS - Already owns Cygnet (and bought/integrated Alpha Hospitals) in the UK. Again, Cambian's Adults business would fit perfectly. May trigger another CMA investigation, like the Acadia takeover of Priory did. They're not going to be short of bids, that's for sure.

I've helped myself to a top up on this as well. I'd previously resisted as I'm already sitting on a tidy profit from this share, but I'm confident that sale news will land before Q4 is out and I don't think we're anywhere near this company's potential yet.