Member Info for londondan

You've got a point. Every time I think 'that must be it now, we must be topping out', they release another 'we're doing unbelievably well' RNS and we rocket up another £1 a share.

Surely not...?

Likewise. Kicking myself for selling half of my holding at just over 850p when we're hitting 920p today, just a month after I sold! That said, the half I have left is close to 100% up on what I paid for it. Quite remarkable really in such a short space of time.

I don't believe it. More good news - up we go again!

Does seem to be quite static at the moment, but I'm happy with this as a longer-term hold. It's not one of those businesses where the share price flies around wildly based on newsflow. It's been a consistent, steady success so far and we all need a few of those in the portfolio!

Thanks for the Buffett link Borgy. I noticed Sky Atlantic screened a documentary about him on Tuesday, straight after the latest episode of Billions. I haven't watched it yet, but it looked good. On the CMBN front - surely we're to expect final year results any day now? The investor relations page on their website is woefully out of date, so it's difficult to predict when we might see them.

Sold at 302p late last week. Small little profit, but nothing life changing. I do still believe that this is a good business, but my concern is that a perfect storm of financial and political events this year could result in a bumpy ride for discretionary spending (like major home improvements) and this share has a tendency to swing wildly in times of uncertainty. Ultimately my entry point and average was higher than I'm now comfortable with. Of course, this is a risky strategy with just a month to go before results - I could well miss a tasty dividend and a flying share price. It's a risk I'm willing to take though. If this gaps down again like it did after the referendum, I'll look for reentry. Good luck to all still in. This is a cracking company and I hope to be back in myself at some point.

Agreed Rich, it's been a fascinating watch and now the wheels are clearly completely falling off there. More than anything it's a perfect example of why anything one reads on these boards must be taken with a pinch of salt. I saw similar hysteria and ramping at CHAL around this time last year. It almost hit 40p at one point and is now almost worthless. I fear a similar fate for CTAG. I completely agree that investing in tangible, proven companies is a much better strategy.

I think I posted this a month or two ago, when the deal was first done. In short, Cambian (our bit, the market-listed bit) is clear of any responsibility here. If the CMA finds that Cygnet now has a monopoly in any areas, they will likely be forced to divest services in the conflicted regions. There is now 'case history' in this area, as this is exactly what happened when U.S.listed Acadia Healthcare bought Priory Group last year to merge the business with Partnerships in Care - they were forced by the CMA to divest 22 services before they could do so. Our part in this investigation is over - our deal is done, whatever the outcome for Cygnet and its owners.

This just won't stop ticking up! Another 50p since I sold half of my holding a few weeks back. There has to be a point at which this becomes over-bought.

My guess is that it will be announced/confirmed at the same time as results are issued. Next month I think?

I agree, it all seems very odd! I was expecting volatility in the lead up to results (and presumably the divi announcement), but we've been veering about 20p each way over the last week or two.

Thanks for the below Borgy. I must confess to being somewhere between 'lacking knowledge' and 'utterly clueless' when it comes to charts, so I clearly need to do more reading! On this morning's RNS - looks as though we have a new CFO joining to replace the excellent but presumably extremely expensive interim. Looks to be a strong hire, albeit taking on his first CFO role. He did however used to be Head of Investor Relations at Balfour Beatty, which will hopefully mitigate against some of the 'radio silence, then nasty surprises' stuff which has defined Cambian post-IPO.

Crikey, apologies, it does indeed! Like you, I had assumed that it was him selling and just skim-read the RNS. You're quite right.

That explains some of the massive sells going through in recent days. Richard Griffiths dumping some of his holding, at what must be a phenomenal profit!

Thanks Rich. There are a few shares I'm keeping an eye on at present but none which I'm prepared to 'tip' just yet - I'm not confident enough to sink my own capital in to them yet, so it wouldn't be fair to suggest others do the same! You're right though, this has been an absolutely phenomenal period to be in GAW and I'm certainly going to hang on to the other half of my holding for the time being, as there could well be more good news to come.

Agreed Nick. For me it comes down to whether or not the BOD can now be trusted to spend wisely and execute a sensible growth strategy from here. I was extremely confident that this share was wildly oversold at the time of the second profit warning (which I believe occurred 1 year ago tomorrow...) and I've booked some great gains as a result of buying in at that point. Now it's back towards fair value, we need to evaluate whether or not they can be trusted not to fall in to the same patterns that got them in such a mess in the first place. I'm less sure today at 130p than I was 12 months ago, when I knew the share was worth more than 50p/60p.

As the bid went over 850p again this afternoon, I decided it was time to take some profits. Sold half of my holding, making roughly 350p per share on my initial investment with the dividend still to come on top of that. I'll sit on the other half for the time being and keep an eye on it. All in all I couldn't be more impressed with this share's performance since buying in, but massive short-term rises like this come about so rarely, I couldn't resist locking in some of those gains.

I'll confess to being a wee bit nervous myself, given this week's activity. I've made phenomenal gains on this share already and need to start having a serious think about my exit strategy. I've taken some profits already and now need to figure out what I do with the rest of my (still fairly sizeable) holding. Some clarity around the special dividend would certainly make this decision easier!

Thanks Borgy; insightful and helpful as ever. I'm pretty confused as well - decent dividend almost certainly on the way, yet we're seeing serious volume selling and 20p gone from the share price in recent days. It's almost like someone, somewhere knows something we don't. (He says, sounding mightily paranoid...)