Member Info for LiveLongnProsper

Takeda acquired Shire in 2018 for circa $60bn, but more recent acquisitions probably more interesting given the Oncology focus …
https://www.takeda.com/newsroom/newsreleases/2022/takeda-to-acquire-adaptate-biotherapeutics/
Have both ‘fire power; and likely interest.
GLA

We (and Point) are using pre|CISION (CanSEEK) to target FAPa and ‘drop’ tried and tested Chemo (Radioligand) ‘payloads’ in the TME (only, or at least minimally elsewhere).
I know that this is not quite the same approach, but other (than FAP) targets are available for ‘precision’ targeting of tumours. GSK directly targeting mutated genes (‘Synthetic Lethality’). But looks like this programme has some years to go …
https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/behind-the-science-magazine/synthetic-lethality-accelerating-precision-cancer-treatments/
So here is the totally unfounded speculation, particularly now that GSK have demerged Haleon and are a more focused R&D based Pharma, perhaps they will be on the lookout for a ‘precision’ targeting cancer therapy that will ‘fill the gap’ and might deliver in the clinic very soon?
GLA

Next News? Cuda closure.
Last Friday – SP 19.25p, mcap £47m.
Reserves value – COPL (Atomic) NPV10 $258M + Cuda NPV10 $121M = NPV $379m (reserves of 38 million barrels of oil). Then subtract debt $45m (to confirm) = $334m or £278m (@$/£ 1.20).
So valued @ ~14% of reserves.
More News expected? Ryder Scott Resource Report.
RS to confirm (update, upgrade …?) numbers in the COPL April 22 presentation, as reviewed by AM on his 23 May IM …
Parkerton Ranch Frontier Discovery
Base Case, OOIP calculations = 1.30 billion barrels of oil, Primary recovery = 8 –10%, 104 to 130 million barrels of oil recoverable, secondary recovery = 40%, 520 million barrels of oil.
High Case, OOIP calculations = 1.7 billion barrels of oil, Primary recovery = 8-10%, 136 to 170 million barrels of oil recoverable, secondary recovery = 40%, 680 million barrels of oil.
Parkerton Ranch Dakota Discovery
OOIP calculations = 365 million barrels of oil, Primary recovery = 8 –10%, 29 to 37 million barrels of oil recoverable, secondary recovery = 40%, 146 million barrels of oil.
Potentially a range of (104 + 29 =) 133 to (680 + 146 =) 826 million barrels of recoverable oil.
Let’s see where the RS numbers ‘sit’ re the above. Will they be reported as 3P (‘Possible’) – 51-101 requires companies to report 1P + 2P (our 38m barrels), but 3P can be reported at company discretion. Even before the field is delineated (remember oil is being extracted), the classification has got to be better than 2C (Contingent Resources)?
Next week SP ???, mcap ???
And yet more News to come …
RBL – re-finance at lower interest, with flexibility (maybe buy out the hedge / swaps?).
Operations update – production, groundworks, etc.
GLA

Slightly unusual trade - flag "BENC P", 'benchmark' price on 'protected portfolio'. So spread at time of posting not really helpful. Looking at trade value and volume for today looks more like a buy.
GLA

AM confirmed he expected the report in a week or so in his 23/5 IM presentation. He then said that it would be reviewed by the COPL board and would have to be agreed by RS before publishing. He also mentioned that a ‘Resource’ (not Reserves) Report was a little unusual in Canada, so compliance with the 51-101 statutory instrument important.
Having said all that, speculation on when it will be released and what it will say is fair enough. So are we waiting for …
The report to be finally agreed?
Cuda closure? (Would like to know the undedged revenue).
Discussions with ‘other’ parties? (For RBL, for JV, for ‘takeout’, etc.).
Other?
And what will the report say? Really the options are …
Less oil,
Same oil,
More oil than, COPL thought.
And then some detail on likely recoverability, etc.
Quite exciting times.
GLA

https://www.withpower.com/trial/phase-1-sarcoma-6-2021-6f477
Updated? Newcastle last time I looked.
GLA

Some similarities? Saturn Oil and Gas (high-level view only) …
https://www.saturnoil.com/
Canadian. Just closed an acquisition – Viking for CAD$260m, increases production to ~11,400 boe/d, adds 7.1-13.5 mmboe to reserves which, prior to this (April 2022), were 50.7 mmboe valued at CAD$648m (NPV10) = ~USD$500m or ~USD$10 / boe.
SOIL SP CAD$2.47, 59.7m shares, mcap ~CAD$147.5m (= ~GBP£94m), debt ~CAD$223m.
Valuation ~CAD$648m (NPV10) add ~CAD$135m (for Viking), subtract debt ~CAD$223m = ~CAD$560m or ~GBP359m vs mcap ~GBP£94m = ~26% of NPV10.
COPL acquisition of Atomic ~USD$54m for ~26mmbbls 2P.
Looks like a good deal by comparison.
COPL (Atomic) reserves 25.8 mmbbls, valued at ~USD$258m (NPV10) or USD$10.0 / barrel (April 2022 presentation page 15). Cuda adds 12.4 mmbbls valued at ~USD$121m (NPV10) making ~USD$379m.
NPV10 valuation of reserves @ ~USD10 / barrel consistent.
COPL SP GBP£0.1685, ~244.5m shares, mcap ~GBP£38.5m, debt ~USD$45m ??? (not sure here).
Valuation ~USD$379m (NPV10), subtract debt ~USD$45m = ~USD$334m or ~GBP£277m vs mcap ~GBP£38.5m = ~14% of NPV10.
(Noted above done quite quickly, so no guarantees, and DYOR etc., corrections welcome).
SOIL are producing more than 2x COPL. But not yet counting Cuda production, which we will soon know.
COPL have a very large (maybe huge) discovery, soon to be confirmed by RS.
COPL (Atomic) undervalued, Cuda not valued in, COPL + RS – someone’s having a laaarf!
Looking forward to next few days and weeks.
GLA

8 trades @ 18:14, same buyer, bit odd, who knows …?
Date/Time Price Change Volume Buyer Seller
Jul 7, 19:12 0.255 0.015 500 CIBC World Markets Inc. CIBC World Markets Inc.
Jul 7, 18:14 0.34 0.10 3,500 RBC Capital Markets CIBC World Markets Inc.
Jul 7, 18:14 0.34 0.10 500 RBC Capital Markets CIBC World Markets Inc.
Jul 7, 18:14 0.34 0.10 500 RBC Capital Markets Scotia Capital Inc.
Jul 7, 18:14 0.30 0.06 2,000 RBC Capital Markets TD Securities Inc.
Jul 7, 18:14 0.30 0.06 500 RBC Capital Markets TD Securities Inc.
Jul 7, 18:14 0.30 0.06 500 RBC Capital Markets TD Securities Inc.
Jul 7, 18:14 0.29 0.05 500 RBC Capital Markets Virtu ITG Canada Corp.
Jul 7, 18:14 0.27 0.03 500 RBC Capital Markets CIBC World Markets Inc.
GLA

https://webfiles.thecse.com/06_CSE_Form_7_-_Monthly_Progress_Report_-_June_2022_0.pdf?0f2ElRyxAKrbthaciloqvDHeN80Tq2Go
Nothing new, Item 7 mentions the US court approval of Cuda.
Probably best to get July 4th over before 'big' news.
GLA

RNS 17 May …
“Receipt of the Resource Report is expected in late May 2022.”
AM presentation 23 May …
Suggested the RS Resource Report in 1 week, followed by ‘Resource Committee’ review. Taking 3-4 weeks to finalise a potentially complex report seems OK, so that brings us to now. What’s going on then?
Possibilities …?
Not much oil there after all, AM plucking up courage to say so? Seems unlikely.
Lots of questions arising from report, still going back and forth between COPL and RS? Possibly.
Loads of oil, like a really big find, already in discussions with a ‘major’? Would be nice.
Loads of oil, like a really big find, need to factor in to RBL re-finance discussions’? OK with that.
Just waiting until Cuda finally completed before releasing the report for some reason? Maybe.
Many permutations.
In the meantime …
Groundworks to sort pressure issues.
Accumulating (unhedged) revenue from (ex) Cuda asset.
Interesting few weeks ahead.
GLA

We are 1 week past the deadline for objections to the US Court approval of the Cuda purchase. Not aware of any objections, so must assume that we are doing the ‘paperwork’ and making payments. We will soon find out how much we paid and also how much (unhedged) sales revenue we have booked.
Regarding the RS Resource Report (not Reserves), this should be due any time now. From AM’s May 23 IM presentation from ~56:00 (from my notes, so please re-watch as required and make your own judgement), RS response (from AM) was something like “this just can’t be”, AM view “well it is”. Then goes on to say something like “reason to suspect the high case is there …”. On 23/5 AM indicated he would have the report in ~1 week and then review by the ‘Resource Committee’ of Independent Directors another ~2 weeks, then RS sign-off (their reputation after all). So if that last step took another week that brings us to now ‘ish’.
Should also have the June monthly report next week, if not by this coming Friday.
Should be an interesting week then?
GLA

@gmcc, no worries!
Important thing is this is a significant investment by Avacta and demonstrates great confidence in AVA6000 and the pre|CISION platform.
GLA

Point BioPharma using PET Scan imaging …
https://assets.website-files.com/61449a484d74b2708533bace/62858f61bf802b380aeadfcb_POINT%20Biopharma%20Investor%20Presentation%20(May%202022).pdf
Page 6 shows the concept with PSMA (not FAP) for prostate cancer.
GLA

COPL NPV $258M (NPV10) + Cuda NPV $121M = NPV $379M – by July.
Parkerton Ranch Frontier Discovery …
Base Case. OOIP calculations = 1.30 billion barrels of oil, Primary recovery = 8 –10%, 104 to 130 million barrels of oil recoverable, secondary recovery = 40%, 520 million barrels of oil
High Case. OOIP calculations = 1.7 billion barrels of oil, Primary recovery = 8-10%, 136 to 170 mmbblsof oil recoverable, secondary recovery = 40%, 680 million barrels of oil.
Parkerton Ranch Dakota Discovery …
OOIP calculations = 365 million barrels of oil, Primary recovery = 8 –10%, 29 to 37 million barrels of oil recoverable, secondary recovery = 40%, 146 million barrels of oil.
Potentially a range of (104 + 29 =) 133 to (680 + 146 =) 826 million barrels of oil.
Ryder Scott Report to provide further analysis and confirmation of above – due anytime now. How much oil then guys? Waiting patiently!
On basis of above …
RBL – re-finance at lower interest, with flexibility and no ‘tricky’ conditions – also deal with hedge / swaps?
CNOOC – if it makes financial sense?
Drilling and Production ….
Current SP doesn’t seem right? Huge re-rate coming then? Waiting patiently!
(IMHO of course).
GLA

Cuda Canadian assets sold to Blue Sky Resources - privately held, difficult to get info on.
Cuda revenue for their last published 3 months ~ USA ~6x> Canada, don't what respective asset value of resources was?
So ~$20m might be reasonable, low side of Shaa's spread. But as noted, don't know Cuda asset split.
GLA

The potential for a ‘raise’ is no doubt a concern given AM’s track record. I think the only justification now would be to fund a buy out of the CNOOC stake. Opex should be covered by revenue and Capex by revenue plus debt finance. So ‘roll on’ the …
Final, final Cuda confirmation,
RS resource report,
Update on how much (unhedged) revenue from Cuda not yet ‘booked’
Update on groundworks and production,
Resource based lending that re-finances the Co. with headroom and deals with the hedge / swaps,
BFF Deep Unit discovery delineation,
Etc. (quite a lot to look forward to).
I take some comfort from AM’s last presentation during which he intimated that the SP would go back up (he would say that of course) and that he had only a narrow window in which to make his last (significant) share purchase – I expect they will be in a ‘closed’ period for Director buying until RBL done.
GLA

Holiday in USA today, so courts closed. Imagine will need to wait until both Canadian and US courts inform FTI that no objections? Nothing I can see on 'court 'tracker' sites. May have to wait until mid-week. More time to rehearse the RS resource report presentation - hopefully will be worth a presentation.
GLA

To try and ‘put this one to bed’, from the FCA …
https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/short-positions-daily-update.xlsx
2 tabs – current day (updated after close) and history, Use ‘find’ for Avacta.
Jupiter 0.61% as at 28/04/22
Bronte 0.50% as at 21/01/22
GLA

Trade Flag TNCP - not price contributing. Could be a buy then?
GLA

*POINT
*competition