Member Info for LiveLongnProsper

Something going on for sure. Gone is that horrible fade in / out presentation, but also gone (temporarily I hope!) is Wyoming from Operations tab. Unless sold to Exxon?
GLA

The backdrop is of course quite appalling and disastrous for the people of Ukraine. There is no ‘but’, as this would simply seem to excuse the inexcusable, I simply report the discussion about the economic impact with a focus on oil and this (I think) is an interesting discussion from CNN …
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/01/business/oil-ukraine-russia-putin/index.html
With BP and Shell doing the decent thing, the focus is now on Exxon …
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-28/exxon-faces-stark-choice-after-rivals-bp-shell-abandon-russia
GLA

Website updated again, this page …
https://avacta.com/investors/key-information/
Are these words from last year or this …?
“Avacta’s Affimer-based rapid Covid-19 antigen test due for commercial roll-out by end Q1”
Still holding for Affimers beyond the LFT, AVA6000, other pre|CISION™, and TMAC.
GLA

Reuters take on BP announcement,,,
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/britains-bp-says-exit-stake-russian-oil-giant-rosneft-2022-02-27
Rosneft stake written off.
BP Directors resign from Rosneft board.
Not clear on sale of BP stake in Rosneft – how, to who, when, how much (if anything), etc.?
Speculation on impact on BP – loss of revenue, asset valuation, dividend impact, SP, etc.
Suspect safer to invest in a Wyoming asset, perhaps, maybe ..?
GLA

Please correct if wrong, but my understanding is that we (SWP) are entitled to recover the amounts owed to us and ongoing costs (as operator) from the sale of Cuda oil. Once our debts and ongoing charges are covered any surplus would presumably be paid to the Administrators handling the Cuda co. / assets sale?
GLA

I don’t get it either, for example today ...
It seems (for whatever reason) 88E have purchased net 2P reserves of 2.1 MMBOE for US$9.7m or US$4.79 per BOE in Texas.
The seller continues as the operator and no doubt a few other consideration (operator costs, local tax for e.g.) but, in simple terms ...
US$4.79 (hang on to that number) for oil in the mainland USA ground. So what is the Ryder Scott CPR going to give us?
Even if only 200MMBO P2 this translates to an SP of more than GBP£3.
GLA

https://avacta.com/careers/assay-development-scientist-senior-assay-development-scientist-ivd-dependent-upon-experience/
GLA

On the Investor page ...
https://www.canoverseas.com/investors/
The Presentations tab says "Updated Version Coming Soon", anyone any idea how long this message has been showing?
GLA

From the footnote on the POINT CanSEEK page …
https://www.pointbiopharma.com/our-products/pipeline/canseek
POINT's CanSEEK™ has been sub-licensed from both Bach Biosciences and Avacta Life Sciences, which has branded the technology as pre | CISION™ (an Avacta trademark).
POINT use Avacta tech.
PNT2004, FAP targeting Lutetium radioligand, planned for Phase 1 this summer. (Nuke cancer vs. our Chemo).
While POINT (like Avacta) have other treatments in the pipeline it is, perhaps, worthy of note that they are currently valued at ~USD$590m.
GLA

@Energy, yes some big decisions coming up for Takeda. Their patent for Velcade runs out this year and other interested parties previously included Pfizer and Teva. Also, Fresenius Kabi market a generic version of Bortezomib.
‘All eyes’ (‘big pharma’) on pre|CISION™.
GLA

Green boxes that is. Record for me. Reminds me when SNG was being trolled @ ~40p. Expecting history to repeat here.
GLA

Velcade (Takeda) off patent this year. Generic formulation of Bortezomib being sold by Fresenius Kabi.
Watch this space.
GLA

@Howzaty, now that would be interesting (i.e. very big news). Any ideas where it is specifically stated that Affimers have been tested in Humans? Presentation says LG Chem "entering pre-clinical development (09/21)", Daewoong less clear.
GLA

Interesting discussion on I3E, and yes I agree they are undervalued, but COPL are so, so, much more undervalued.
For comparison maybe worth looking at the I3E Tennyson report from October 2021 (basis, Brent @ USD$76.9 in 2022) …
https://wp-i3energy-2021.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/11/211019_I3E-Sitting-pretty-1.pdf
See page 4, if my reading is correct, perhaps worthy of note …
Core NAV = 132.6 mmboe (Canada P2 reserves), unrisked = UDS$475m, risked = USD$407m
So valuing P2 reserves @ unrisked USD$3 / boe
(have deliberately not used total figures which include the North Sea, Serenity etc, as exploration and govt. not too friendly to O&G)
So I’m revising my ‘simple’ valuation of yesterday based on $3 and 230m shares (fully diluted with AM’s new options)
Let’s say COPL have 400MMBO (2P) - CPR to confirm
Let’s say a (revised and very) conservative USD$3 / barrel for 2P (NPV10), value for acquisition
So 400m x USD$3 = USD$1200m @ 1.5 USD$ to GBP£ = GBP800m (yes, I know the exchange rate is 1.35, but I like round numbers)
Let’s say 230m shares, gives £3.50 / share
Even if only 200MMBO we have got to worth more than 35p
GLA

Indeed, very interesting.
As it's the weekend, and before rugby, here is a very simple model ...
After CPR …
Let’s say 400MMBO (2P)
Let’s say a conservative USD$6 / barrel for 2P (NPV10), value for acquisition
So 400m x USD$6 = USD$2400m @ 1.5 USD$ to GBP£ = GBP£1600m (yes, I know the exchange rate is 1.35, but I like round numbers)
Let’s say 200m shares, gives £8 / share
Even if only 200MMBO we have got to worth more than 35p!
GLA

Some interesting discussion on Twit just now (MMc and others) re Velcade. To add to the discussion ...
The Takeda patent runs out this year and other interested parties previously included Pfizer and Teva.
Also, Fresenius Kabi market a generic version of Bortezomib.
Just an example (perhaps) of the ‘big pharma’ players who will be thinking very hard about pre|CISION™.
The more research you do, the bigger a ‘deal’ this is going to be.
GLA

Indeed, top test!
(At the bottom of the list on the 'papers' page)
GLA

Therapeutics ...
https://avacta.com/therapeutics/
Not sure what has changed (as usual).
Looking forward to AVA6000 update.
GLA

https://www.canoverseas.com/investors/
Shareholder Information tab – NSAI COPL Resources Report [March] 2019, estimates as of December 31 2018 (not including gas or Nigeria).
Contingent Resources Development Unclarified Best Estimate (2C) – Risked/Unrisked 2,210.9/6,429.2 Mbbl
Prospective Resources Best Estimate (2U) – Risked/Unrisked 68,672.8/213,181.4 Mbbl
Guess this will need updating after last Monday?
Both the Presentations and Factsheets tabs - “Updated Version Coming Soon”
Guess we’ll get an update soon then?
Oh, and did someone mention an acquisition in Cuba?
Looking forward to updates, and a lot of speculation while we’re waiting (haha).
GLA

@speranza, for info ..
Going back a bit I know but, Abingdon did announce a partnership with DCN Diagnostics USA for their “AppDx® Smartphone m-Health technology” back in April 2020 …
https://www.abingdonhealth.com/news/dcn-diagnostics-partner-commercialisation-appdx/
And DCN advertise their contract design and manufacturing capabilities for LFT’s …
https://dcndx.com/
Also, ABDX were hiring a USA based sales manager with LFT experience early last year, don’t know if that happened?
For those of you who ‘go back a way’ you will no doubt remember Brendan from DCN and Klaus from Cytiva, on balance I suspect Avacta should have gone with the former – but, hey, ‘water under the bridge’.
GLA