Member Info for LiveLongnProsper

Just mentioned Avacta as being an 'up' small cap. First time I've heard him mention?
GLA

@beesty69, please see dougb's reply - correcting me. Was a 'units' problem, i.e. M=000's (oil industry units for $'s!) so £257m on current reserves!
Apologies for any over excitement.
GLA

@dougb189, thanks for the clarification, appreciated.
GLA

@dougb189, thanks for looking, and the number surprised me, but it is clearly stated in "USD M$".
Direct 'copy and paste' from page 69 of the Annual Information Form ...
Column heading - "Net Present Value of Future Net Revenue
(before income taxes, 10% discount rate)
(USD M$)"
Then under sub-heading "Evaluated" $257,560.
Not volumetrics, but millions of USD$'s.
Take another look and tell me I'm wrong!
GLA

@AJEP, agree on key parameters for a simple (but not simplistic) valuation model in the event of co. / asset sale.
Cost to buy oil in the ground (discounted for capex, lifetime, etc.) – C$
P2 Oil – P2mmbo
Ownership – O%
Recovery – R%
Exchange rate – E (£/$)
No. of shares – S
Then SP for takeout = (C x P2 x O x R x E) / S
So I make this – (8$ x 1.5bn mmbo x 85% x 40% x 0.7634£/$) / 220m) = £14.15, close enough.
Just a question of getting the parameters right in the ‘takeout’ scenario.
Personally, would be a little more cautious, but still end up with a multi-bag!
GLA

A question arising from the Annual Information Form (page 69) ...
"5. The following table shows the net present value of future net revenue (before deduction of income taxes) attributed to proven plus probable reserves, estimated using forecast prices and costs and calculated using a discount rate of 10 percent, included in the reserves data of the Company evaluated for the year ended December 31, 2021, and identifies the respective portions thereof that we have evaluated and reported on to the Company's management:"
Then we have an 'evaluated' number of (NPV10) $257,560 (USD M$) in the USA.
Yep, $257bn!
Has been very little comment on this, but if really based on 'Proven' (1P=90%) plus 'Probable' (2P=50%) reserves (yes, it does say reserves), then this suggests a CPR has been done?
So why no news? Can someone explain what’s going on please?
GLA

Really funny these 'algorithm' driven, data scraping sites, thought a little dangerous to those unaware.
In this case, 41.8p in a year, hilarious undervaluation, 79.1p in 5 years, COPL will not exist.
Algorithms don't know about the oil we've got, or Cuda, or anything particularly relevant.
Use with caution.
GLA

@AJEP, 4x400k trades ...
2022-04-01T14:16:25.653 GBX 24.45 4000 978 Off-Book XLON P XLON
2022-04-01T13:16:21.827 GBX 24.764 400000 99056 Off-Book XLON P LRGS XLON
2022-04-01T14:15:55.147 GBX 24.5 6925 1696.625 Off-Book XLON P XLON
Above 400k trade @ 24.764 at 13:16 sandwiched between 14:15 and 14:16. 1 hour delay, but price @ 13:16 was ~26.5p? Or time stamp wrong (GMT?)?
2022-04-01T15:03:37.810 GBX 25.9 400000 103600 Off-Book XLON P LRGS XLON
2022-04-01T14:58:47.000 GBX 26.4 400000 105600 Off-Book XLON P LRGS XLON
Above 2 late reported trades at or above mid-point of spread?
2022-04-01T15:02:38.123 GBX 26 400000 104000 Off-Book XLON P XLON
Above, reported in sequence, at mid-point of spread?
GLA

'Balancing' trades at UT.
This trade 'Off Book', so not order Book, but party-to-party.
Looks like a buy, as they say about ducks.
GLA

Teenagers spending their £2 pocket money on some 'free trade' app?
Or, a code only understood by the AI's that run the world?
Take your choice.
GLA

Saw this on the BP board ...
https://www.ft.com/content/1f8a2511-d6ab-4183-b5c6-da6a69b3c815
If Texas can't supply demand, then how about Wyoming?
GLA

Possibly a little encouragement from Canada in that Scotia Capital seem to have picked up a few earlier on, including 53,000 @ CAN$0.58 (34.8p @ 0.60) …
Mar 22, 13:58 0.58 0.06 500 Scotia Capital Inc. Anonymous
Mar 22, 13:58 0.58 0.06 3,000 Scotia Capital Inc. Canaccord Capital Corporation
Mar 22, 13:58 0.58 0.06 3,500 Scotia Capital Inc. Anonymous
Mar 22, 13:57 0.58 0.06 6,500 Scotia Capital Inc. TD Securities Inc.
Mar 22, 13:57 0.58 0.06 7,000 Scotia Capital Inc. TD Securities Inc.
Mar 22, 13:57 0.58 0.06 500 Scotia Capital Inc. RBC Capital Markets
Mar 22, 13:57 0.58 0.06 1,500 Scotia Capital Inc. RBC Capital Markets
Mar 22, 13:57 0.58 0.06 18,000 Scotia Capital Inc. TD Securities Inc.
Mar 22, 13:57 0.58 0.06 53,000 Scotia Capital Inc. TD Securities Inc.
Mar 22, 13:57 0.56 0.04 500 Scotia Capital Inc. Virtu ITG Canada Corp.
Mar 22, 13:57 0.56 0.04 1,000 Scotia Capital Inc. Canaccord Capital Corporation
Mar 22, 13:57 0.56 0.04 2,500 Scotia Capital Inc. TD Securities Inc.
GLA

From the Euro database …
https://covid-19-diagnostics.jrc.ec.europa.eu/devices/detail/2905
Updated 14/03/22 (same as Avacta for AffiDx), but Meduflow good for Gamma and Omicron, also spec details a bit different.
GLA

Nope, Alpha, Beta, Delta nomenclature been there at least since last update in 2021.
GLA

Updated today for us ...
https://covid-19-diagnostics.jrc.ec.europa.eu/devices/detail/2426
But no Omicron.
Anyway, someone in Diagnostics must have done something?
GLA

Yes, I liked the ‘strong balance sheet’ bit, also the LFT is still on the Diagnostics page, phrased in a way that suggests we haven’t actually launched yet ..?
“Our diagnostics division is utilising our proprietary Affimer® platform to develop AffiDX®in vitro diagnostic (IVD) tests, starting with the AffiDX® SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Lateral Flow Test.”
https://avacta.com/diagnostics/
GLA

Regarding these trades.
1 hour delayed trade posted just before 12:42 when the spread had moved to 34.5/35.5, though at 11:40 was 34.5/35 …
11:40 (11/03) 34.79 206,873 34.50 35.50
Other 2 just above the midpoint, so these look like straightforward buys …
11:41 (11/03) 34.80 140,000 34.50 35.00
08:40 (11/03) 35.04 180,000 34.50 35.50
Trades from Morningstar, see for yourself, and make of it what you will.
GLA

Worth a read ...
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/global-diesel-shortage-raises-risk-even-greater-oil-price-spike
“Pressure to stabilize and rebuild distillate inventories will cause refiners’ crude consumption to accelerate later this year and into 2023. But the global crude market is already exceptionally tight and the extra crude demand will cause it to tighten further.”
GLA

Likely that iis from this source include nominee accounts held on pi behalf by such as Halifax Share Dealing.
GLA

Released by court order, see Twit.
For information, make of it what you will.
GLA