Member Info for LiveLongnProsper

Good points.
If the Bond Holders continue to convert their debt securities to shares, particularly whole the sp is below the conversion rate, then maybe something is 'afoot'.
GLA

Interesting thought. So what do we think …?
Brokers / FA’s sold their 5.9m?
Bond Holders cashed some debt for shares and now holding 12m shares? Now at less than exercise price. But, perhaps, on expectation of a ‘hostile takeover’?
Was there any ‘forward selling’?
If Bond Holders think there might be someone ‘lurking ‘, perhaps we should expect more of the same?
I.e convert debt to shares at a nominal loss, giving up the interest due, on the prospect of a takeout?
Who might be moving on a ‘hostile takeover’?
(Arthur mentioned our neighbour Continental in passing – though in the context of ‘operational’ stuff only).
Who’s your money on?
GLA

Not particularly this announcement.
But for anyone who doesn’t know (and I know there won’t be many on this board) …
https://www.pointbiopharma.com/our-products/pipeline/canseek
Just make the following substitutions …
pre|CISION for CanSEEK
chemotherapy (Doxorubicin) for radiopharmaceutical
Now look at the bottom left of the linked page …
“POINT's CanSEEK™ has been sub-licensed from both Bach Biosciences and Avacta Life Sciences, which has branded the technology as pre | CISION™ (an Avacta trademark).”
My guess, on positive PK readout from AVCT then POINT will accelerate CanSEEK trials.
GLA

‘By Jove’, some folks still hoping for the worst. 'Zeus knows' what they’re up to …
https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/short-positions-daily-update.xlsx
Bronte Capital Management Pty Ltd AVACTA GROUP PLC GB00BYYW9G87 0.50 21/01/2022
Jupiter Investment Management Limited AVACTA GROUP PLC GB00BYYW9G87 0.61 28/04/2022
GLA

Yes, LondonStockExchange site showing 4 trades …
Later matching trade reported after close. Note SINT trade.
2022-08-11T14:43:05.000 GBX 14.1 550000 77550 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
Earlier reported trade with same ‘time stamp’ – XOFF / ECHO.
2022-08-11T14:43:05.083 GBX 14.1 550000 77550 Off-Book XOFF P ECHO
Now the 2 further late reported trades with same ‘time stamp’, but slightly higher prices …
2022-08-11T16:23:08.677 GBX 14.11 550000 77605 Off-Book SINT TNCP ECHO
2022-08-11T16:23:08.677 GBX 14.11 550000 77605 Off-Book SINT TNCP ECEU
Only II’s are ‘Systematic Internalisers’, so someone working this.
GLA

88E mcap £87m, look at what reserves they have, look at how much they have to spend, look at what they're targeting, look at todays raise, etc ...
Disconnect (vs COPL) is massive, like really, really big!
We will come through eventually, but funny old game O&G isn't it.
GLA

I make this 13 out of 126 individual ‘Convertible Bond’ ‘Securities’. This assume the ‘principle’ converted is USD$2,000,000 (and not CAD$).
Workings …
9,995,002 shares issued x CAD$0.2578 ‘Exercise Price’ = CAD$2,576,711.52 @ USD$0.78 = ~USD$2,009,835. So, allowing for exchange rate variability and commission, near enough USD$2m.
(My workings, so please correct as necessary).
The good news, then, is only another 113 of these ‘chips’ to cash in (haha)!
So I guess the ‘hedge fund’ is striking a balance between cashing in early and taking profit from selling on, vs. making money on interest payments from COPL. Latter point clearly being good for COPL.
Yes, the dilution is significant, but COPL runs on cash and the size of the (our) prize is massive (as per RS RNS). So actually not greatly concerned if we are heading for ~400-450m shares.
GLA

From the RNS …
Frontier 2: 217,365,000 Bbls.
“The Report supports the Company’s conclusion that the Frontier 2 Discovery is a large stratigraphic oil accumulation encompassing the Frontier 2 reserves at the Company’s operated 100% WI Cole Creek field.”
“The Report adds Frontier 2 oil resources classified as Contingent Resources (1C, 2C and 3C) on Company operated lands over an additional 14,160 acres extending to the east to within the operated Barron Flats Federal Deep Unit.”
“The Company plans to drill two Frontier 2 horizontal wells in its 2022-23 drilling campaign commencing in Q4 2022.”
“The first Frontier 2 horizontal well will be located in the Barron Flats Federal Deep Unit offsetting its 2021 BFU Fed 14-30VF discovery well in an area classified as 3C Contingent Resources.”
“The second Frontier 2 horizontal well will be drilled on an existing permitted location in the Cole Creek Unit targeting Proven 1P and Probable 2P undeveloped Reserves.”
We are going for the 3C first. Part of the same “stratigraphic oil accumulation encompassing the Frontier 2 reserves …”.
My take, coming soon, a massive ‘reserves’ upgrade.
GLA

Had a go at Tim’s challenge, but think I failed.
Below just one scenario I was trying think through as negative, but couldn’t really ….
First patient AVA6000 dosing announced by RNS on 11/08/22, so a year in next Thursday. (Third dose cohort at second dose escalation announced on 29/06/22).
So called ‘late cardiac damage’, caused by Doxorubicin weakening heart muscles, can take a year or so to show. So maybe this hasn’t been seen yet, but could be seen soon? (No doubt the standard treatment protocol will include heart function monitoring to catch this as early as possible?).
But then, you say, wouldn’t we know that significant Dox was being ‘dropped’ outside the TME through analysis of body fluids? We may need biopsies to prove what’s happening in the TME, but surely if Dox was being ‘dropped’ throughout the body we would know?
This board is one of the best researched anywhere, can’t anyone find a negative …?
GLA

https://webfiles.thecse.com/07_CSE_Form_7_-_Monthly_Progress_Report_-_July_2022.pdf?01VYKTGe0wk_T95EB01cAetpf.rcW4es
Item 7. Updated for Cuda closure.
Item 13. About the convertible bond financing.
Otherwise repeat of last month
Good progress today. No doubt more bust trading days next week.
AM on IM Monday, not just RS, hope to hear about production, infrastructure and drill plans, etc.
RBL to come.
Much more …
Yep, it’s taking time, but moving in right direction.
GLA

Weekends (especially wet) also a good time to review recent presentations. AM’s 23 May IM presentation for example. Here he notes the ‘discovery’ was made in September (2021), announced in January and Ryder Scott commissioned after (my interpretation) their busy year-end (end March). AM goes on to say that he was expecting the ‘first draft’ later that week and it would then be reviewed by the ‘Reserves Committee’. He indicates ‘reasons to expect the high case’. He also noted something like ‘we are also producing from Cole Creek’ and that ‘it was all one big structure’.
The 26 July RNS states …“The Company expects Ryder Scott to confirm these findings when it publishes the report next week.” These findings being … “1.5-1.9 billion barrels of Oil in Place ("OIP"), of which 1.2-1.6 billion barrels of OIP underlays COPL lands.” So, we are 2 months on from the presentation, and eagerly awaiting the RS report. Why has it taken longer than (most) expected?
A lot of ‘technical’ detail to check and get approved by RS and COPL?
Held back for Cuda and interim financing?
Discussions with ‘other’ parties – US Govt. (energy security, as per @LargeGin), JV, acquisition, etc.?
The discovery is really big and RS reputation on the line to get this right?
Underpinning (even though not ‘Reserves’ report) of substantial RBL deal?
Combination of the above? Other factors?
Interesting week ahead for sure.
GLA
Ps, @1509, the April presentation has a range of recoverability, would expect RS to ‘firm up’ on this.

COPL Reserves (Atomic + Cuda) 38 million barrels, NPV10 ~$380m = ~£314m, (say) 300m shares and very conservative valuation 50% NPV10, then that is just over 50p per share. That’s the minimum we should be at now, before RS.
Next week we get the RS view of what has already been published in the COPL April presentation and discussed by AM in May, reiterated in the 26 July RNS – in summary …
Parkerton Ranch Frontier Discovery
Base Case, OOIP calculations = 1.30 billion barrels of oil, Primary recovery = 8 –10%, 104 to 130 million barrels of oil recoverable, secondary recovery = 40%, 520 million barrels of oil.
High Case, OOIP calculations = 1.7 billion barrels of oil, Primary recovery = 8-10%, 136 to 170 million barrels of oil recoverable, secondary recovery = 40%, 680 million barrels of oil.
Parkerton Ranch Dakota Discovery
OOIP calculations = 365 million barrels of oil, Primary recovery = 8 –10%, 29 to 37 million barrels of oil recoverable, secondary recovery = 40%, 146 million barrels of oil.
Potentially a range of (104 + 29 =) 133 to (680 + 146 =) 826 million barrels of recoverable oil.
So COPL are saying an additional 133 – 826 million barrels recoverable, let’s see what RS say.
Price target …?
GLA

Not your average PI trade - MJC code SINT, ECHO exchange …
2022-07-28T15:03:13.000 GBX 19.08 500000 95400 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
Mic code SINT MiFID II definition – “an investment firm which, on an organised, frequent and systematic basis, deals on own account by executing client orders outside a regulated market or an MTF or an OTF without operating a multilateral system".
Personally think the increasing volume of large round number trades, likely mostly II’s, encouraging. Who knows though?
GLA

For comparison ...?
https://www.saturnoil.com/
Canadian. Just closed an acquisition – Viking for CAD$260m, increases production to ~11,400 boe/d, adds 7.1-13.5 mmboe to reserves which, prior to this (April 2022), were 50.7 mmboe valued at CAD$648m (NPV10) = ~USD$500m or ~USD$10 / boe.
About the same as our USD$380m (NPV10) valuation on 38 million barrels reserves.
Massive, like really big, disconnect.
GLA

https://thecse.com/en/listings/oil-and-gas/canadian-overseas-petroleum-limited
At the bottom. Also XOP trades in Canada (15 min delayed).
GLA

Yep, looks like TD got someone interested ...
Jul 26, 19:22 0.275 0.01 109,500 TD Securities Inc. TD Securities Inc.
Jul 26, 19:22 0.275 0.01 500 TD Securities Inc. Virtu ITG Canada Corp.
Jul 26, 19:22 0.275 0.01 18,000 TD Securities Inc. Interactive Brokers Canada Inc.
Jul 26, 19:22 0.275 0.01 49,000 TD Securities Inc. TD Securities Inc.
Jul 26, 19:22 0.27 0.005 7,500 TD Securities Inc. CIBC World Markets Inc.
Jul 26, 19:22 0.275 0.01 48,500 TD Securities Inc. TD Securities Inc.
GLA

@Sharebel, not AIM we are on the main market. However we use SETSqx trading service as oppose to mainstream SETS.
GLA

Sir Al has previously mentioned Roche in terms of aspiration.
Here is their Oncology pipeline ..
https://www.roche.com/solutions/pipeline/#81ad1b25-f415-4714-9450-45c188614658
What are the ‘odds’?
GLA

Regarding the ‘who is the new lender’ question. Tennyson have been involved in recent COPL ‘deals’ …
https://www.tennysonsecurities.co.uk/deals
But I don’t think they are managing a £3bn fund, and nor, I think, are their parent Shard …
https://www.shardcapital.com/
But these folks do seem to have plenty of experience in O&G finance.
So who is the new lender (and, soon to be, largest shareholder)?
GLA

Remember MM's can see 'stop losses' and (strangely enough) 'spike downs' do happen.
Be careful, not long to go before substantive news.
Just saying.
GLA