Member Info for LiveLongnProsper

‘Cautiously Optimistic’ asset-based valuation …?
25/08/22 14 securities converted, 112 left (so potential for ~112m new shares), ~264m shares issued, ~55m Warrants outstanding, ~15m Options outstanding, overall (potential total) = ~446m shares. I’m using ~500m as basis for my own valuation and target.
Once we get stable / increasing production, Reserves update, RBL confirmed would expect SP to move up significantly. Then a question of whether Bond Holders want the interest payments or to make money on selling (converted) shares? Of course, if we’re generating lots of cash we may pay off some debt?
So, based on the (very conservative) RS ~100m barrels (10% recovery, on sub-set of licences) getting classified as 1P/2P Reserves, then @ NPVUSD$10 that’s $1bn, converting to GBP and reducing for debt and risk, say GBP£500m or (on 500m shares) GBP£1 / share.
GLA

Possibly of interest …
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AZN/imfinzi-approved-in-us-for-biliary-tract-cancer-ibk7pww92nszjqj.html
“AstraZeneca's Imfinzi (durvalumab) has been approved in the US for the treatment of adult patients with locally advanced or metastatic biliary tract cancer (BTC) in combination with chemotherapy (gemcitabine plus cisplatin).”
Now see page 15 …
https://avacta.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Avacta-Group-plc-Prelim-Results-2021-FINAL.pdf
“Potential for a pipeline of pre|CISION pro-drugs …”
“Including but not limited to …”
“preCISION Gemcitabine”
Cisplatin also mentioned in various Avacta documents.
(Also the PD-L1 context).
No doubt AZN know what AVCT are up to.
GLA

29/06/22 – DE2
Neil Bell - "The recommendation from the Safety Data Monitoring Committee to initiate dosing in Cohort 3 with 160mg/m2 of AVA6000 is an endorsement of the emerging safety and tolerability profile in the patients enrolled in this study to date.”
01/09/22 – Cohort 4 (DE3)
Alastair Smith - "We are very much encouraged by this recommendation from the SDMC to move onto the fourth dose cohort in our ongoing ALS-6000-101 Phase 1 dose escalation study. This very positive progress reflects the safety profile and tolerability demonstrated in patients enrolled in the study to date."
‘Safety and Tolerability’ was “emerging”, but now “demonstrated”.
Just about the ‘Efficacy’ then?
GLA

Quite a range (Citi vs JPM), prompted some quick research.
US Energy Information Administration (09/08/22) – WTI $89 in 2023 …
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/prices.php#:~:text=Winter%20Fuels%20Outlooks-,Prices,and%20%2495%2Fb%20in%202023.
Fitch (from Rigzone) – Brent $100 in 2023 …
https://www.rigzone.com/news/fitch_solutions_unveils_latest_oil_price_forecast-03-aug-2022-169855-article/#:~:text=The%20business%20currently%20sees%20the,company%20forecasts%20made%20in%20July.
A few others, but spread typically $80-$120 for 2023.
And yes, it looks like war in Ukraine / Russian supply, China’s economic activity, and other geopolitical factors will be the key factors. Not to mention Climate Change / Energy Transition. And of course, Energy Security, a particular focus in the USA … did someone say we got some oil in Wyoming, Joe?
GLA

The hedge that runs for 14 months from Jan 23 is $52.87 on 416,772 barrels, so a not as good as now. Should be worth ‘doing a deal’ to renegotiate on more favourable terms as part of the RBL.
GLA

This is really odd, daft, funny (other adjectives available) …
2022-08-24T12:09:46.317 GBX 11.869 16 1.89904 Off-Book XLON P XLON
Increments by 1, all numbers in between to (so far) …
2022-08-24T12:46:45.767 GBX 11.869 56 6.64664 Off-Book XLON P XLON
Like living in an episode of Lost (except counting up), I suppose in some version of the ‘multiverse’ this is random, haha.
GLA

https://newzzwired.com/bladder-cancer-clinical-trial-pipeline-insights-featuring-100-companies/
Key Takeaways from the Bladder Cancer Pipeline Report.
Leading bladder cancer companies such as … Avacta Life Sciences Ltd, et al.
Key bladder cancer pipeline therapies in various stages of development include … AVA6000, and some others.
GLA

@panama, you already know the answer …
Wise use of new funds (no ‘defaults’) – sort production = more cash. Confirm reserves – get RBL. More drilling, delineate discovery / more production = more cash. Further reserves upgrade. Etc.
GLA

Simple version, some detail missing so as not ‘clog up’ board, all out there to read on the InterWeb ..
2024 and 2025 convertible bonds, 63 each individual securities (total 126) @ principal of USD$200k, total USD$25.2m, discounted by 0.78 to USD$19,656,000, 13% interest. Convertible to 62,968,500 shares each @ $USD0.2001 / GBP£0.1675 (possible ‘reset’ to USD$0.1583 / GBP£0.1325 under certain ‘conditions’). Plus 54,792,590 warrants @ GBP£0.1675and 5,895,000 shares to agents. (Yes, I agree, not exactly great terms).
UK 6 purchasers, 16+16 securities = USD$6.4m
Mexico 1 purchaser, 2+2 securities = USD$0.8m
Cayman Islands 2 purchasers, 45+45 securities = USD$18m
Totals – 126 securities, USD$25.2m (principal) x 0.78 = USD$19,656,000 net
Specifically, Anavio Equity Capital Markets Master Fund – principal USD$16.8m = 84 securities, plus 42,398,790 Warrants.
08/08/22 RNS – USD$2m principal (10 securities) converted to 9,995,002 shares @ USD$0.2001, plus (agents) shares
(Note – on 07/08/22 vol ~21m, sp ~17p)
12/08/22 RNS – USD$400k principal (2 securities) converted to 1,999,000 shares @ USD$0.2001
(Note – sp looked like ~GBP£0.1675 on 08/08/22, but has been lower since)
Can’t see that cashing in bonds just now will make anyone any money?
No shorts at / over 0.5%, check it out …
https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/short-positions-daily-update.xlsx
Lots of SINT, TNCP, ECEU/ECHO matched pair trades going through though.
‘On the surface’ it appears just now that there are more buys than sells?
Even assuming all remaining bonds converted and all warrants and options exercised we end up with ~450m shares, let’s say 500m.
Per @Tiburn, current NPV10$380m (reserves 38m barrels), moving to (minimum) ~100m barrels (@ 10% recovery). Undervaluation is massive, like a really big disconnect.
What we need – cash flow (i.e. production) and RBL.
Otherwise, in the meantime, what’s going on?
GLA

Not even a minor website update. 'Tight ship' just now. Wonder why?
GLA

Top 20 reported today from LondonStockExchange in descending volume order. ‘Systematic Internalisers’ (mic code SINT) at it again. Guess there is some purpose in this (apparent) II ‘flipping’ between accounts?
2022-08-22T15:28:52.057 GBX 12.7 368400 46786.8 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2022-08-19T16:41:06.000 GBX 13.125 368400 48352.5 Off-Book SINT N ECHO
2022-08-19T16:41:43.000 GBX 13.125 366400 48090 Off-Book XLON N XLON
2022-08-19T16:40:01.000 GBX 13.125 366400 48090 Off-Book XLON N XLON
2022-08-22T15:28:33.023 GBX 12.7 350400 44500.8 Off-Book XLON P XLON
2022-08-22T15:22:47.100 GBX 12.7 350400 44500.8 Off-Book XLON P XLON
2022-08-22T09:44:44.780 GBX 12.935 300000 38805 Off-Book SINT TNCP ECHO
2022-08-22T09:44:44.780 GBX 12.935 300000 38805 Off-Book SINT TNCP ECEU
2022-08-22T16:25:20.127 GBX 12.651 253813 32109.88263 Off-Book SINT TNCP ECHO
2022-08-22T16:25:20.127 GBX 12.651 253813 32109.88263 Off-Book SINT TNCP ECEU
2022-08-22T09:45:04.153 GBX 13.81 200000 27620 Off-Book SINT TNCP ECHO
2022-08-22T09:45:04.153 GBX 13.81 200000 27620 Off-Book SINT TNCP ECEU
2022-08-22T13:46:34.763 GBX 12.744 192221 24496.64424 Off-Book XLON P XLON
2022-08-22T14:40:22.057 GBX 12.55 159362 19999.931 Off-Book XLON P XLON
2022-08-22T14:11:54.000 GBX 12.7 153813 19534.251 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECEU
2022-08-22T14:11:54.000 GBX 12.7 153813 19534.251 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2022-08-22T14:41:05.867 GBX 12.55 119522 15000.011 Off-Book XLON P XLON
2022-08-22T09:50:55.457 GBX 12.925 116055 15000.10875 Off-Book XLON P XLON
2022-08-22T14:40:53.000 GBX 12.553 100000 12553 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECEU
2022-08-22T14:40:53.000 GBX 12.553 100000 12553 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
GLA

August 8 Investor presentation (discussed in IM presentation) …
Page 8 – Frontier 2 OOIP barrels – RS 217.4m vs COPL 351.9m
Page 9 – restates April presentation, BFFU Deep Base Case, OOIP 1.3bn, 104-139m @ 8-10% recovery, 520m @ secondary recovery of 40%
Page 10 – restates April presentation, BFFU Deep High Case. OOIP 1.7bn, 136-170m @ 8-10% recovery, 680m @ secondary recovery of 40%
Page 12 – restates April presentation, BFFU Deep Parkerton Ranch Dakota Discovery, OOIP 365m, 29-37m @ 8-10%, 146m @ secondary recovery 40%
Page 17 – 2P reserves 38.2m, NPV10 USD$380m
From Proactive interview – Reserves being updated, production stabilising (1.5 months to sort), RBL coming.
Above suggests AM’s ‘confidence high’. Also self-interest high (good for motivation!) …
25-28 Jan AM purchase 665,000 shares @ $0.58
29 Jan 15.4m share options @ C$0.54
GLA

Top 10 reported today (2 dated yesterday) …
2022-08-18T09:53:39.000 GBX 13.4 1004000 134536 Off-Book XOFF P ECHO
2022-08-18T14:28:56.510 GBX 15.33 999500 153223.35 Off-Book XLON TNCP LRGS XLON
2022-08-18T15:37:04.607 GBX 13.65 368400 50286.6 Off-Book XLON P XLON
2022-08-18T15:32:09.867 GBX 13.65 368400 50286.6 Off-Book XLON P XLON
2022-08-17T17:28:43.000 GBP 0.12935 300000 38805 Off-Book SINT N TNCP ECEU
2022-08-17T17:28:43.000 GBP 0.12935 300000 38805 Off-Book SINT N TNCP ECHO
2022-08-18T11:43:28.000 GBX 13.8 200000 27600 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2022-08-18T08:02:53.610 GBX 14 178486 24988.04 Off-Book XLON P XLON
2022-08-18T07:02:02.760 GBX 13.199 143889 18991.90911 Off-Book XLON P XLON
2022-08-18T08:37:58.433 GBX 13.633 125000 17041.25 Off-Book XLON P XLON
Warming up a bit!
GLA

@Shouston, LondonStockExchange site downloads in GMT.

As per Harry …
2022-08-17T07:11:46.813 GBX 13.399 600000 80394 Off-Book SINT TNCP ECHO
2022-08-17T07:11:46.813 GBX 13.399 600000 80394 Off-Book SINT TNCP ECEU
Looks like II’s at play again?
GLA

Arthur also mentioned that Reserves would be updated - after working on the Resource Report I expect RS will be working on this right now. Would make sense to update Reserves before RBL.
GLA

Arthur in London.
Some debt paid off - to show that 'we can'.
Reserves to be updated.
Production increasing (not quite stable or forecastable yet - needs 1-1.5 months).
Good progress.
(SP just daft!).
GLA

Shorters at/above 0.5%, no change for a while …
Bronte Capital Management Pty Ltd AVACTA GROUP PLC GB00BYYW9G87 0.50 21/01/2022
Jupiter Investment Management Limited AVACTA GROUP PLC GB00BYYW9G87 0.61 28/04/2022
Shorters below 0.5% and spread betters, who knows (or cares)?
Most important RNS’s (yes, I know, good stuff on Affimers also– LG Chem, Daewoong) …
11/08/21 AVA6000 First Patient Dose @ 80mg/m2
29/11/21 AVA6000 FDA approve IND application
18/01/22 AVA3996 Second pre|CISIONTM Pro-drug Candidate for Development
03/02/22 AVA6000 Dose Escalation to 120mg/m2
29/06/22 AVA6000 Second Dose Escalation to 160mg/m2
Will there be a progress update ahead of full PK data ‘readout’? Will there be something else to say – US sites, license deal, etc., ahead of the substantive RNS on trial data (coming soon)?
Research done, positions taken, just the waiting patiently.
GLA

NPV10 USD$380m (on Reserves only) = ~£310m, less debt (guess at same) ~£50m = £260m, multiply by 50% for risk = £130m, on ~260m shares = 50p. Value of RS OIP ...? Probably quite a lot though (haha).
(Amount of debt / no. of shares subject to change on day-by-day basis!).
GLA

"CanSEEK™, currently in pre-clinical development ..."
https://assets.website-files.com/61449a484d74b2708533bace/62461156c377a5396604e653_POINT%20Biopharma%20Investor%20Presentation%20(Apr%202022).pdf
Page 42
"CanSEEK™ is a radiopharmaceutical drug platform that enables re-evaluation of known ligands
previously set aside due to off-target delivery concerns"
Page 43
That was April. Pre-Clinical ongoing.
They have a list of radioligands ready to go.
Proof of the pre|CISION pudding (positive PK data) will make a difference.
GLA