Member Info for LiveLongnProsper

Avacta know about Pembrolizumab (Keytruda) from this in 2018 …
https://avacta.com/avacta-and-oncosec-collaborate-innovative-gene-delivery-therapeutic-affimers/
“OncoSec’s prior Phase 2 OMS I-102 combination study of ImmunoPulse® IL-12 and pembrolizumab successfully demonstrated the safety and efficacy of the platform with a 50% best overall response rate and a 41% complete response rate in 22 patients unlikely to respond to anti-PD-1 therapy.”
OncoSec still working with Merck on Pembrolizumab trials …
https://oncosec.com/pipeline/
Not sure how active Avacta collaboration with OncoSec is now?
Merck mentioned a couple of times in more recent Avacta announcements …
28 Jan 2020
https://avacta.com/successful-initial-proof-of-concept-for-a-proprietary-new-class-of-anti-cancer-therapy/
“In a mouse tumour model, the Company has shown that the first TMAC drug conjugate (AVA04-VbP) outperforms Bavencio (avelumab), a marketed PD-L1 antibody inhibitor developed by Merck and Pfizer. Animals treated with AVA04-VbP showed a significant reduction in the rate of tumour growth with respect to those treated with Bavencio.”
30 Sep 2021
https://avacta.com/interim-results-for-the-period-ended-30-june-2021-and-business-update/
“As a result of the clinical data from Merck KGaA and their Bintrafusp alfa (a dual TGF-beta/PD-L1 inhibitor antibody), the Company has decided to pause the AVA027 programme. This will afford the Company time to further understand the issues arising in the Bintrafusp alfa clinical trials and whether they are related to the trial design, and can therefore potentially be dealt with by better trial design, or whether there is a more fundamental issue with this bispecific combination. In the meantime, the Company is using this pause to focus resources on AVA028 to deliver an Affimer® development candidate as quickly as possible.”
GLA

https://listingcenter.nasdaq.com/assets/initialguide.pdf
Page 6, need 1 column out of 4, “Standard 4: Assets with Equity” – just need the sp @ $4, should be achieved (++) ‘if it works’.
Page 7, “Liquidity Requirements”, Page 8, “Financial and Liquidity Requirements”, Page 9, “Direct Financial and Liquidity Requirements”, Page 10/11, “Financial and Liquidity Requirements” – looks like we can meet at least 1 of the columns in each requirement?
But, as noted by VertizeaSun, a RTO is perfectly feasible (think Myles also discussed this some time ago).
GLA

Not flying but WTI up more than Brent just now ...
Brent Oil 94.16 +0.05 +0.05%
Crude Oil WTI 88.26 +2.94 +3.45%
GLA

‘X billion war chest’? Nope, either my share of an £xbn extraordinary dividend, or a large number of shares in an acquiring ‘big pharma’ outfit. OK, ‘Avacta Diagnostics’ can keep some cash for growth and at least part ownership or access to Affimer IP. Shareholders must be rewarded for their investment. Happy to receive a large amount of cash or valuable shares, and retain my holding in ‘Avacta Diagnostics’.
GLA

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/biden-announces-sale-15-million-barrels-reserve-oil-rcna53006
“The president said he also plans to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is at its lowest level in decades.”
America needs oil. Biden wants the price @ ~$70 to ‘refill’, currently WTI @ ~$85.
We have oil. We need a (large, listed) JV partner to accelerate production. Who will it be - Continental, Devon, EOG, Occidental, Exxon, et al …?
Patiently waiting for Arthur.
GLA

Yep, 0.73% to 0.30%. Wonder how much that cost …?
https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/short-positions-daily-update.xlsx
Jupiter Investment Management Limited AVACTA GROUP PLC GB00BYYW9G87 0.30 18/10/2022
GLA

Not just about AVA3996 (pro-velcade)?
Avacta presentation November 2021 …
https://avacta.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/IWC-2021-Avacta-Presentation.pdf
(TMAC pages 13-20, particularly 15 and innate immune response).
Takeda ‘advertising’ their research in Scientific American …
https://www.scientificamerican.com/custom-media/why-innate-immunity-could-be-the-key-to-improving-cancer-care/
Just a thought.
GLA

Why buy any share? My thesis (fwiw), only 2 reasons …
For dividend income. Or,
For the prospect (based on your own research) of an increase in the share price.
Then ask, what drives an increase in share price?
At its simplest – only the prospect of dividends or a takeover.
As the share price progresses upwards you take a view on realising a capital gain or waiting for the dividends.
All the analysis of company performance, management, assets (confirmed, likely, possible, etc.), debt, equity, etc., are just about assessing the company’s ‘trajectory’ in your own timescale.
For me, with COPL, both are possible. Dividends – when production is up and we have strong net / free cash flow. Personally, I think more likely, acquisition – when it becomes apparent the company is self-sustaining and the only way (for a ‘big player’) to get hold of our substantial assets is through a takeover.
Either way, COPL simply needs to prove it can be self-sustaining (and part of this may include a JV?).
We are on the ‘cusp’.
GLA

Suspect a number of factors relating to ‘financials’ that many seem not to have properly researched, but LTH’s and the ‘market’, and prospective ‘partners’ will understand. For example …
While we currently have no major II with a large % holding (to my knowledge), Anavio Equity Capital Markets Master Fund hold (or at least originally held) 84 of the recently issued securities, plus 42,398,790 Warrants. Given each security can be converted to 995,000 shares, this could leave Anavio as the major shareholder by far.
As of 22/09/22 total 16 securities converted, 110 left (so potential for ~110m new shares). Then we have other warrants and management options. Total circa ~450m shares potential. This known and incorporated into the 'market' valuation.
The behaviour of bond holders is one to watch – will they just ‘stay’ and take interest, will they convert and hold, or will they convert and sell?
Then there is the RBL or ‘Senior Loan’ – talking to 3 x US banks, favouring the one we already do business with.
But now we have a large, listed, potential JV partner ‘behind the scenes’.
Quite a lot to ‘play out’ in the next few weeks – but, actually, none of this bad.
In the meantime …
We can flare, production will go up, we are cleaning pipes, production will go up, we can fix the gas system, production will go up, we will delineate the ‘discovery’, Reserves will go up – very significantly.
Massive confidence in Arthur’s team after yesterday’s presentation to the WOGC.
GLA

@Eazy, interesting find.
Denbury headlines and very (very) crude and quick comparison (FWIW, DYOR etc.) …
Mcap $4.6bn, Sept 22 presentation – 46-49k boe/day, 192million boe reserves (YE21, potential 400million 2023).
Vs COPL (not including BFFDU discovery) – production ~x25 (50k:2k), reserves ~x10 (400:40), mcap ~x90 ($4600m:$50m).
Denbury also seem to be debt free, have a lot of infrastructure assets and are net negative on CO2 emissions (this, no doubt, very interesting to Exxon).
Nevertheless, still think this demonstrates a massive valuation disconnect for COPL.
GLA

Don’t think anything we don’t know about …
https://webfiles.thecse.com/07_CSE_Form_7_-_Monthly_Progress_Report_-_September_2022.pdf?em4HSy0B_x94iuB_QAh7DB1ynOGQNwfr
Item 3 – Reserves upgrade and Flaring.
Item 5 – None to Report (as last month) – but nothing about a JV, maybe next month?
Item 14 – Another Bond conversion (1990k shares).
GLA

Research 'snippets' (plenty to go at!) ...
http://pipeline.wyo.gov/StatsForCounty.cfm?oops=ID12463
Converse County production 2022 YTD …
SouthWestern – 382,572 (9th)
Anschutz, Northwoods, Impact – private?
Continental, Devon, EOG – JV front runners!
Anadarko – acquired by Occidental (hmm ..?)

Natrona County production 2022 YTD …
SouthWestern – 17,714 (8th)
Total – 400,286 (Tally with monthly stats)
Contango – now a subsidiary of Crescent Energy
GLA

TNCP flag, so not contributing to price, but nevertheless encouraging.
GLA

Potential JV partners?
Meant to be in declining PRB acreage, but quick look so far, so could be wrong (corrections welcome) ...
Occidental Petroleum (Oxy) – mcap ~$61bn PRB (largest lease holder?
Continental Resources – mcap ~$25bn, PRB (2nd largest lease holder) Q2 production 27,211 (of total 400k) bopd (offer from Hamm family in July to take private @ $70/share).
Devon Energy – mcap $45bn, PRB (300,000 acres) Q2 production 19,000 (of total 616k) boe/day.
EOG Resources - mcap $73bn, PRB (110k + 130k acres)
Vernilion Energy – mcap ~$3.8bn, PRB (149,500 acres)
Anyone got any more?
GLA

Page 7 … “COPL Financed the acquisition with a $US25M Convertible Bond backed by a large institutional shareholder, now a cornerstone investor”. (‘Cornerstone Investor’, ‘presumably Anavio Equity Capital Markets Master Fund, but implies conversion to shares?).
Might see some bond to share conversions as we pass 16p.
Otherwise bond holders risk being ‘bought out’ (albeit at a premium) and missing out on the sp increase – which (IMO) should be much more than the buyout premium or cumulative interest.
GLA

@Tiburn, analysis greatly appreciated, Thanks.
GLA

Guess the heading should really have been 'PMH Capital'.
Apologies to Paul - who is very well informed and has been a long standing AVCT supporter.
GLA

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-hill-a5994116_avct-avct-activity-6981186012265771008-kXq-?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
Very positive.
GLA

Agree.
The £20m is Trinity Delta’s estimate (as of 6 April 2022) for 2023 funding – bottom page 13 … “Short-term debt in FY23 is our assessment of the company’s funding requirement.”
i.e., just a guess. A licensing deal for (say) 3996 with (say) Takeda would blow that away.
Interesting times, while we await AVA6000 update and what that will lead to.
GLA

My understanding as per @Shouston, i.e once we’ve done the 384k barrels for the 2022 we are running at market prices until the 2023 hedge kicks in. So then, given RBL will require a level of hedging, do we buyout the currently contracted 2023 arrangement and re-hedge for a better deal, or let it stay in place and possibly introduce a second layer of hedging at a higher level? Big question is how much it might cost to buyout the contracted 2023 hedge – and here, the forecast oil price must be important?
GLA