Member Info for LiveLongnProsper

Well someone from the 'dark side' having a sniff, see where it goes (if anywhere?) ...
2022-12-20T16:26:05.480 GBX 110.5 1944 2148.12 Off-Book XPOL RFPT P XPOL
GLA

Guess they think that £14m would just be a 'rounding error' after the Science Day. Haha.
GLA

‘Curiouser and curiouser’, where will the ‘rabbit hole’ take us I wonder?
So we get a (hopefully detailed, thorough, technical) update on AVA6000 phase 1a in ‘early January’.
In the meantime, Sir Al, Fiona, Neil, the SAB, know the results and can brief the NED’s - Christina Coughlin, Mark Goldberg, Paul Fry and Trevor Nicholls. The first 2 being top Bio / Oncology folks and the latter 2 having lots of pharma finance experience.
What a team! So the ‘team’ help Sir Al put together a “Therapeutics Division Science Day” for “City analysts and fund managers” who will “hear from selected key opinion leaders in the field of oncology”, or at least they might recommend the ‘right’ ‘leaders’ to invite.
And this ‘science day’ will cover the full pre-clinical programme (question – Affyxell as well?).
Wow, all good, can’t wait (not being facetious).
But why the emphasis on “City analysts and fund managers”? We just did a raise. Do we …
Need more money?
Want to license out some of the pre-clinical stuff, or other pre|CISION candidates, or TMAC?
Want to sell Therapeutics off (or other – see below)?
Want to list on Nasdaq?
Now what about Diagnostics Division?
We just bought a Diagnostics distribution business – good deal, nicely separated from Therapeutics (hmmm?).
But we don’t have any Diagnostics products to sell, do we? Oh, hang on, we have the “ AffiDX® SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Lateral Flow Test” don’t we? Gulp, memories of listening to recorded meetings with a guy called Klaus coming back.
Seriously though, we have masses of Affimer research going on, but not really anything to sell through Launch, at least yet.
Guess we’re waiting for the ‘Diagnostics Science Day’?
To be blunt - are we going for a full ‘split and sell’?
I love this company, but hoping the ‘red pill’ will take effect soon, please.
GLA

Lots going on in the PRB, perhaps a slightly interesting ‘thread’ to follow here?
Deutsche Rohstoff (who you say) are a German company making their money by buying up the assets of, or partnering with larger, US companies …
https://rohstoff.de/
OK, so what? Well, take a look at their latest presentation …
https://rohstoff.de/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/2022-11-16-CMD_final_WEB_1-en.pdf
Now look at page 6. PRB – they’re looking for another 100+ locations and their Bright Rock and Cub-Creek-Energy subsidiaries are next door to us.
On page 7 we may be the ‘Other’ sandwiched between Devon, OXY and Continental. DR already in partnership with OXY.
Of course they don’t look to be quite the right size to takeover COPL, but maybe they have access to European capital, or maybe they could work with Occidental. Maybe just OXY?
While I probably still favour Exxon, there are other possibilities for JV or takeover.
GLA

As we move to drill the ‘discovery’, possibly with the ‘help’ of a JV partner, one thing is clear …
America needs oil.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/16/economy/biden-spr-exchange-and-replenish/index.html
US Energy Department will provide 1.2m barrels from the SPR to Exxon to refine.
But they also need to ‘refill’ the Strategic Petroleum Reserve’ which a “… senior administration official conceded it will take months or even years to refill the SPR, whose stockpiles are at the lowest level in 38 years.”
https://www.ft.com/content/173b1bdb-44b9-4c50-8638-49298b61e08a
“The move comes as Biden and his officials continue to put pressure on US drillers to increase output even as crude and petrol prices continue to retreat …”
GLA

CC 11-27 approvals …
http://pipeline.wyo.gov/RepByCompsundr.cfm?oops=ID18076&RequestTimeOut=65000&nOpco=1769
GLA

Comparison with Turkish ‘find’ ...?
COPL Reserves – 38m barrels, plus RS report OIP 993m @ (say 20% recovery = 198m) = 236m barrels @ $8/barrel (going rate for Turkish reserves ?) = $1,888m. Let’s just assume US Oil is cheaper @ $6/barrel, then that gives us $1,416m. Then reduce for debt to (say, to get a nice round number) $1,350m, then assume we have 450m shares, that gives $3/share.
Yep, I know RS didn’t cover the whole patch.
Yep, I know we expect better than 20% recovery.
Just need to demonstrate positive cash flow, then we’re in a very good place for RBL / JV / takeover discussions. And if this ‘snippet’ (courtesy RBMInvest) is the case …
‘We finally have been able to get all of the wells in the field online late last week’ Been slower than planned, but now all online.’
Then we should be cash positive already?
GLA

29/6 AVCT RNS 2nd dose escalation AVA6000.
30/6 Trinity “AVA6000 set for third dose escalation stage”.
29/9 AVCT RNS Interim Results.
29/9 Trinity “Building Tx and Dx portfolios from proprietary platforms” and results.
18/10 AVCT RNS Placing, Launch Diagnostics.
18/10 Trinity “Diagnostics M&A-led growth strategy is ready to Launch”.
Since 8/11 AVCT RNS Result of Open Offer – Nothing, Nowt, except 'no jobs' as of today.
13/12 Trinity “Diagnostics business back into the spotlight”, but also saying … “Therapeutics, lead asset AVA6000 continues to progress and should validate the pre|CISION platform’s clinical utility.”
So AVCT, your turn ..?
GLA

Radio Pharmaceuticals folks have been having a conference …
https://targeted-radiopharma.com/about/speakers/
POINT Biopharma speaking, but also Novartis and Clovis (if they still have a travel budget) attending.
Might just take a look at Affibody AB and see what they’re up to.
GLA

Interesting development hh. FAP-2286, worth a read …
https://targetedradiotherapy.com/
The Novartis ‘deal’ is more competition for Point et al. But note, Radioligands really do need to be highly targeted. The alpha, beta or gamma emissions from the radio isotopes being ‘transported’ through the body just keep on going and risk tissue, cell, DNA damage etc. You can’t turn the radiation off – unlike the inert state of ‘transported’ chemotherapy (Prodoxorubicin).
GLA

Things do tend to quiet during negotiations / due diligence etc., so maybe a reason for the ‘quiet’.
More than a month since …
An RNS, Website updated, @Avacta Twitter post, Avacta Linkedin post.
During the continuing ‘interregnum’ …
Newcastle recruiting patients (1b ???) …
https://www.withpower.com/trial/phase-1-sarcoma-6-2021-6f477
Leeds University recruiting for Affimer PHd’s, for example …
https://www.findaphd.com/phds/project/engineered-affimers-for-cryo-em-studies-of-unsolved-protein-structures/?p148338
Anything else of definite, published, substance?
GLA

While we wait for the 'update' …
Despite current (relative) ‘soft’ prices, US Energy Information Administration forecasting Brent @ $92.36 for 2023 (so WTI probably ~$88) – released 6/12/22, down ~$3/b on last month …
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/index.php
However they also note, due to the knock on impact of gas pipeline capacity constraints, that …
“This change also contributes to slightly more crude oil production in 2023 than we had previously forecast.”
Not sure that they are yet to factor in China opening back up?
Also US ‘Strategic Reserve’ very low …
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_ending_stocks_of_crude_oil_in_the_strategic_petroleum_reserve
We have the oil.
Removing the oil makes space for storing CO2.
We just need some help – with drill pipes, gas pipes, (any) other pipes, and maybe some more capex.
Do we (or Arthur) know of someone (preferably nearby) who has a need to ..?
Maintain production,
Maintain reserves,
Store CO2,
And has lots of money?
GLA

Has this has been updated for Newcastle recently ..?
https://www.withpower.com/trial/phase-1-sarcoma-6-2021-6f477
Previously – ‘The Beatson West of Scotland Cancer Centre, NHS Greater Glasgow & Clyde’.
Not sure when.
GLA

Oil service (rigs etc.) contractor. Canadian, with an office in Casper, so I suppose Arthur will know them. Who is our rig contractor anyway?
GLA

Trying to be helpful.
There is a distinction between CSE ‘forms’ filed within 5 working days of the month end …
https://thecse.com/en/services/listing-cse/forms
and quarterly MD&A / Financials filed on Sedar by 15th of month after the first 3 quarters.
Anyway, let’s hope the next RNS / RNA / Announcement / News is JV / RBL / Operations update related – i.e. something of substance.
GLA

Remember the additional flaring only approved on October 11th (RNS October 12th), so not too bad really. Comparing October vs September …
Lower
BFU 22-27V – down by 2169 (only 1 days production).
BFU 14-23V – down by 595 (flaring approved).
BFU FEDERAL 41-34H – down by 415 (flaring approved).
BFU FED 32-21V – down by 325 (flaring approved).
BFU 32-27V– down by 438 (flaring approved).
BFU Fed 41-20V – down by 361 (flaring approved).
A further 13 wells with lower production.
Higher
BFU 21-35-76 ST A SN 3H – up by 313.
BFU 44-21V – up by 1355 (31 vs 17 days).
BFU FED 11-28V – up by 434 (flaring approved).
BFU FED 21-21V – up by 562 (flaring approved).
BFU 21-34V – up by 772 (flaring approved).
A further 12 wells with increased production.
Would like to know the status of de-waxing and flaring by well, not to mention some detail on the overall groundworks programme. But actually, probably better than ‘not too bad’.
Now where are we with the JV/RBL Arthur?
GLA

APTA (Aptamer Group) mentioned in earlier posts. Most will know the ‘competition’, but for info they have a webinar at 17:00 today. Their 'Optimers' specifically, as opposed to Aptamers more generally, are alternatives to antibodies but based on “DNA or RNA oligonucleotide molecules”. They do seem to have done quite a few, albeit individually small, deals with ‘big pharma’. Worth keeping an eye on, if not (even, perhaps) acquiring?
GLA

I know we’re all waiting for the news on AVA6000 (great research from RAH0084 et al), but just to continue with Affimers and their potential in the antibiotic ‘space’, this tweet from Roy Basch in June may be of interest (he was waiting for AVA6000 back then!) …
https://twitter.com/baschcapital/status/1536058466661552130
Bacteria, particularly antibiotic resistant ones, Avacta and Leeds University are ‘on your case’.
GLA

@gmcc, thanks for the link re ‘c-diff’.
I’m not a Biochemist (so caution needed), and more expert comment would be appreciated, but it seems that this has something to do with peptide conjugates? As you note, Affimers are a potentially superior alternative to antibodies. And in this context, ADC’s can be antibody-peptide drug conjugates.
Vancomycin is a ‘glycopeptide antibiotic’ …
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5793038/
In the Affimer article I posted, discussing the difference between the AClfA1 Affimer and the ‘control’ Affimer – AAC, the difference is the “active targeting peptide sequence” (or “Hyper-variable loops”).
Alternatives to Vancomycin being researched due to VRSA (not to mention the side effects) …
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30349337/
We know that we had an Affimer that ‘blocked’ SARS-CoV-2 (a Virus), now it seems we have Affimers that block some really nasty Bacteria.
Need to get Affimers into human trials. pre|CISION and Affimers, great company in the making.
GLA

More Affimer work from Leeds University. Affimers target Staphylococcus aureus …
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590207522000089#fig1
Read the full article in the PDF for a quite astonishing statement ..
“… suggesting that the AClfA1 offers a stronger binding affinity than vancomycin as used by others …”
(Vancomycin being the so called 'antibiotic of last resort').
GLA