Member Info for LiveLongnProsper

Excellent news Eazy, BFU44-19V did 1369 barrels in Jan 2021, then quite erratic through to being shutdown in Dec 2021, though did 1316 and 1291 in May and Oct 2021.
Shows that the groundworks are continuing, with hopefully another decent sized well back 'on stream' soon.
GLA

My take (FWIW) …
Arthur dropped at least 4 RNS’s in 1 – Profit warning / trading update (kind of), Operational update (weather) / causes cash flow problems (maybe?), new shares issued to trading (not really new shares) / prospectus, NED gone, etc. And in a particularly clumsy way.
Apparent immediate cash flow issue caused by weather and losing a few days production (?) is the main concern for me – the cash issue either pre-existing or we were running very ‘close to the bone’ and tipped over by the lost production.
Much confusion over large RS section in Prospectus – nothing new, still don’t have the ‘Discovery’ detail.
Either – short-term cash injection to get over immediate debt repayment until unhedged production kicks in (soon),
Or – JV (or acquisition – yes please) / RBL – to properly sort it.
GLA

https://webfiles.thecse.com/01_CSE_Form_7_-_Monthly_Progress_Report_-_January_2023.docx_0.pdf?Gs4v67JtIFKCQUdU0eMrPpSVxBSrwLpV
Nothing we don’t already know about.
More shares – 277,858,812 as at January 31, 2023
3. CC 11-27 oil 125-135 bbl/d – as per RNS.
13. $200k bond conversion Dec 30
14. The Prospectus (we know about this, don’t we!)
17. Bad weather, production impact, finance risk, etc. (and again!).
Quiet month then (gulp …!).
GLA

Mostly ‘targeted’ radioligands in their oncology pipeline.
“The tumor-specific molecule is like a puzzle piece that matches complementary molecular puzzle pieces on the surface of cancer cells ..” “The chemical puzzle pieces rarely match surface molecules on healthy cells, so the medicine passes most of them by.”
I wonder how ‘precise’ “rarely” is? OK, “most of them”, but I guess more ‘precision’ might be helpful.
GLA

Would just add that I think the 3 wells ‘highlighted’ were flaring prior to last Octobers approval for further flaring, whereas the ones ‘off’ a bit are mostly in the October approval. Of course there are other ‘groundworks’ (de-waxing etc.) going on that we can’t see the detail of. The picture, though, seems to be of an actively managed field making solid progress.
GLA

@sbrown, caught out by earlier than expected release (!), spreadsheet now updated.
Highlights …
BFU 21-35-76 ST A SN 3H – Dec 4325 on 28 days, +2694 on Nov, still below avg
BFU 22-27V – Dec 3247 on 24 days, Nov 0, slightly above year avg – so flaring working?
BFU 34-20V – Dec 3765 on 31 days, +532 on Nov, slightly above avg – extra day?
Lowlights …
BFU 44-22V – Dec 1334 on 21 days, - 1134 on Nov – subject of flaring request
BFU Fed 11-22V – Dec 2386 on 23 days, -497 on Nov – subject of flaring request
All above from Shannon.
Worth noting CC re-completions …
11-27 – no production from Frontier-2 this year
4- 27 – Dec 228 on 16 days, -189 on Nov – down to reduced days, but hopefully swap to Frontier-1 soon, along with 11-27, target 100+ per day.
Overall view from the ‘spreadsheet’ – flaring seems to be having the desired effect, many of the lower numbers down to fewer days. A lot of, as yet, unrealised production - before CC re-completions, never mind BFDU.
Looks very encouraging.
GLA

Avacta ‘Therapeutics Science Day’ RNS (note Therapeutics) not giving much away. But a very literal interpretation could suggest we might only hear about AVA6000 and AVA3996 (being the only other pre|CISION candidate in pre-clinical …
https://avacta.com/therapeutics/pipeline/
One would hope that the ‘pipeline’ is significantly updated ahead of the ‘day’, as currently …
Phase 1 …
pre|CISION™ AVA6000 – FAPa activated doxorubicin.
Pre-clinical …
pre|CISION™ AVA3996 – FAPa activated proteasome inhibitor.
Research …
AVA028 – PD-L1 Affimer® / IL2 bispecific.
AVA021 – PD-L1 Affimer® / LAG-3 Affimer® bispecific.
TMAC® platform.
While Avacta still showing ‘Cell and gene therapies’ (AffyXell) as early in Research, from the AffyXell website …
http://www.affyxell.com/en/pipeline/pipeline.php
AFX-001/002 just nudging the pre-clinical stage, so maybe we’re due for an update here as well?
While I would be very happy for the day to ‘major’ on AVA6000 – so long as they have some actual ‘hard data’, suitably summarised for the audience of course, if the focus is ‘City analysts and fund managers’ then we really do need a clear message about the strength and depth of the overall product pipeline. Just over 3 weeks to go, time for some updates …
GLA

Updated last night ...
https://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/compound/118584251
Good to see the weekend working!
GLA

Went ‘cold’ shortly afterwards the 11 Oct 2022 speculation, but now ‘warming up’ again ?
https://www.tradingview.com/news/seeking_alpha:c66c8308a094b:0-denbury-gains-amid-renewed-exxon-takeover-speculation/
Seems to be about CO2 storage and pipelines?
GLA

Thanks Eazy.
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1HeE648NWO44EeCe8ROqhpWiNam72Tck&ll=42.98184480336003%2C-106.07150462643361&z=14
Just North of Cole Creek Road is 11-27 (re-completed as per RNS, previously not producing)
Then NNW of 11-27, 2nd one, is 4-27 (re-completion in hand, did 417 barrels in Nov from Frontier-2)
Directly North of 11-27 is 11-22 (did 693 barrels in Nov from Frontier-2)
NE of 11-27, 2nd one, is 12-23 (did 181 barrels in Nov from Frontier-2)
Re-completion no. 3 – 11-22 or 12-23 ???
GLA

Tough decisions for Bond Holders (haha) ..
Each Bond Security of $200,000 convertible @ $0.1583 = 1,263,424 shares, sell @ 15.5p = ~£195,831 @ GBP£/USD$1.24 = ~$242,830 (less commission etc.), so an easy ~$40k+ ???
Should you wait for all 3 CC re-completions and an increase in production and Reserves (and sp)?
Should you wait for the ‘groundworks’ to complete and an increase in production (and sp)?
Should you wait for the JV/RBL and increase in share price?
Can you earn more interest before the JV/RBL buys you out (though on advantageous terms)?
Maybe you want to convert and hold?
Maybe you want influence going forward?
(Anavio now have 104 Bonds).
‘Fascinating’ to see how this pans out.
GLA
(My numbers, so please check and correct as necessary)

3 CC re-completions …
11-27 – RNS / Proactive interview 23/01/23, flowing / cleaning up.
4-27 – Approved, probably underway, mentioned in interview.
Third (choice of 2 mentioned in interview) CC re-completion to enable Reserves to be ‘booked’.
BFDU Horizontals (the ‘Discovery’) …
BFDU 41-30-3576FH – approved 20/12/2022, Confidential …
http://pipeline.wyo.gov/Wellapi.Cfm?oops=ID21323&nAPINO=949002
BFDU 42-19-3576FH – approved 05/01/2023, Confidential …
http://pipeline.wyo.gov/Wellapi.Cfm?oops=ID21323&nAPINO=949001
CC and BFDU all part of the same stratigraphy?
A lot of G&G stuff to think about, no doubt occupying the JV tech team, ‘how much oil …?’
(In the meantime working to get production up in current producing wells – unhedged now).
GLA

A few buys by Credential Qtrade Securities Inc …
(Hadn't spotted these folks before, but look mainstream so probably missed).
Jan 25, 19:43 0.275 0.025 500 Credential Qtrade Securities Inc. TD Securities Inc. CSE
Jan 25, 19:43 0.27 0.02 5,000 Credential Qtrade Securities Inc. Questrade Inc. CSE
Jan 25, 19:43 0.27 0.02 500 Credential Qtrade Securities Inc. Virtu ITG Canada Corp. CSE
Jan 25, 19:43 0.26 0.01 4,500 Credential Qtrade Securities Inc. Anonymous CSE
Jan 25, 19:43 0.26 0.01 10,000 Credential Qtrade Securities Inc. BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. CSE
Jan 25, 19:43 0.26 0.01 5,000 Credential Qtrade Securities Inc. Anonymous CSE
Jan 25, 19:43 0.26 0.01 500 Credential Qtrade Securities Inc. Anonymous CSE
Part of Aviso Wealth, with CAD$100bn under management. Are these buys just retail investors using the Qtrade service, or buys on behalf of II’s? Very small trades (so far) though.
GLA

Eazy, agree. From the interview, paraphrasing …
‘Another one 200 feet higher – 4-27, then third well higher still – choosing from one of two …’
‘Then come back and frac all 3 of them as we get that under design …’
‘They (JV partner) have recognised as we have that there is a large resource in this area …’
‘One of the questions that they asked themselves (of we?) is what would be the inflow rate of doing this without stimulation …’
‘Lot less expensive to do this with existing wells where we have casing – than drilling new wells …’
‘Every well that we have looked at drilled in this area … has a good reservoir … is also under pressure .. because it has an oil (rather than water) pressure gradient …’
‘Carry a lot of Prospective Resources for Frontier 1 … start so shift to Contingent Resources … and then with three (you need 3) wells to Reserves …’
‘Game Changer, thick reservoir …’
Interpretation – JV partner wants to see 3 wells flowing, COPL can then book Reserves (which de-risks any investment by JV partner) and move on to frac, by which time JV may well be in place.
GLA

When was the last time COPL did a Tweet that wasn't about an RNS or co. presentation.
Either Arthur is experimenting with the 'dreaded' social media or 'somethings up' (or my wishful thinking).
GLA

Nice spot Bolton, 'out of the blue' ...
https://twitter.com/COPLinvestor
Wonder what's going on?
GLA

A lot happening, new drilling activity we know about …
CC 11-27 recompletion targeting Frontier-1 (see Sundries under Approvals) …
http://pipeline.wyo.gov/Wellapi.cfm?oops=1&nAPINO=2523810
CC 4-27 recompletion targeting Frontier-1 (see Sundries form 13/01/23 – updated with date stamp Jan 20 2023 for approval – courtesy Eazy) …
http://pipeline.wyo.gov/Wellapi.cfm?oops=1&nAPINO=2523811
Above 2 first of 6/7 recompletions. CC 11-27 possibly now ‘done’ – news awaited.
BFDU 41-30-3576FH ‘discovery’ horizontal approved 20/12/22 …
http://pipeline.wyo.gov/Wellapi.Cfm?oops=ID21323&nAPINO=949002
BFDU 42-19-3576FH another ‘discovery’ horizontal approved 05/01/23 …
http://pipeline.wyo.gov/Wellapi.Cfm?oops=ID21323&nAPINO=949001
For the above 2 see the APD document for drill details.
Then we have …
‘Groundworks’ – new gas gathering, de-waxing, flaring – all to improve production (now unhedged).
The JV and (if required) RBL discussions ongoing (presumed).
The question of Anavio’s intention – with a potential ~187m shares if all Bonds converted.
And Arthur has a great deal of ‘skin in the game’ – with 5.6m shares (including options) at an average (my calc’s – so please DYOR) of ~29p, but the main tranche of options @ ~37p.
All very interesting and lots of news due.
GLA

Marty McFly (from Twitter) makes a good point about the Trinity Delta update …
https://twitter.com/Blueberrymgmnt/status/1616036426986012673
Talk about cautious. Just one example below by way of a polite suggestion to the TD folks.
Perhaps use words like – ‘we are seeing a therapeutically relevant level of the active (working) chemotherapy (doxorubicin) targeted into the tumour tissue …’
Instead of – “a materially higher doxorubicin tumour localised concentration than in equivalent blood levels ..” (slightly tricky to grasp the point at first and doesn’t really convey the extent of the achievement does it?).
GLA

Regarding the ‘continuation to even higher dose cohorts’ Sir Al did say that these would be ‘concluded by the half-year’ – so really just able to fit in 2 cohorts. One might think that the term ‘half-year’ is quite precise for Sir Al (?), it is nevertheless a ‘wibbly-wobbly timey-wimey’ thing and so should carriy the usual caveats.
Just catching up a little, for the ‘old hands’ it seems that Google translate has progressed 1 letter further – from Abakta to Abacta …
https://www.theguru.co.kr/news/tag_list_all.html?tag=%EC%95%84%EB%B0%95%ED%83%80&page=0
Well worth the $billions spent, perfection awaits …
GLA

Interesting that Arthur is sometimes the victim of his own ‘good news coming’ publicity. With much made of the 6/7 CC recompletions (data about which were discovered in an ex-Atomic filing cabinet on Alpha Centauri). Then we get the 11-27 recompletion going, then we (think) 4-27 might have started – but no news on 11-27 status. Not to mention the 2 BFDU approvals.
Why not issue some good news? Personal musings on this (apologies if rambling) …
The CC recompletions are all approved to drill and we’re only needing the supplementary (‘Sundry’ forms) approval process to switch to Frontier-1, i.e. not really a completely new well.
We have 35+ wells on production and many (Shannon) have been on-off-on as ‘field work’ is done, no detailed updates, never mind a full field development plan, published – only what can be gleaned from looking at production numbers a month later, plus other WOGC docs, and COPL presentations. .
Maybe we’re in ‘closed period’?
Maybe we’re subject to NDA’s?
Maybe Arthur’s (and Ryan’s) attention is absolutely focused on JV / RBL matters?
What is clear though is that …
The RS report confirmed 993m barrels and the RNS stressed that “The Report is compliant to Canadian regulatory requirements pursuant to National Instrument 51-101 - Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities ("NI 51-101") which stress conservatism to the evaluation”.
RS subsequently upgraded the current 2P Reserves valuation to $492m (NPV10).
Arthur’s daughter did a first rate presentation to WOGC (for flaring), with the Governor joining at the end.
Arthur bought 665,000 @ CAD$0.58 and was issued 3.9m options at CAD$0.54 in Feb 2022 and then another 1m shares (100k @ CAD$0.19 and 900k @ CAD$0.185) in August 2022 (thereby reducing his average a bit!), so has a great deal of ‘skin in the game’.
In the end we all have make a judgement on ‘what is real’ (i.e. not ‘fantasy’!).
GLA