Member Info for LiveLongnProsper

RNS 9 May Mr James Goozee owns 13,275,000 shares plus CFD/Spreadbet on 8,025,000.

@Altag confirms on LSE 20m shares.

Today Charles Archer (respected Analyst) writes positive article on COPL – originally posted by Eazy …

https://investingstrategy.co.uk/stock-tips/copl-shares-a-brief-look-at-the-value-disconnect/?amp=1

JV at ‘commercials’ stage – so technical DD must have completed.

AGM a few days away.

Gas infrastructure upgrade in progress.

CC re-completions in progress.

Need the SP at USD$4+ for Nasdaq, just saying …

https://listingcenter.nasdaq.com/assets/initialguide.pdf

The O&G Nasdaq ‘club’, again, just saying …

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENQSSOG/components?p=%5ENQSSOG

(Meanwhile, de-ramp crew on overtime, haha).

Interesting times.

GLA

Nice find Eazy.

Well set out statement of the (known) facts.

I agree with the ending – “… the market will wake up with a jolt.”

GLA

@Brel, while trying to analyse the 'facts' as presented, I nevertheless do have some concerns on the way the company is being managed. So no illusions here. AM does, however, have a lot to gain - from shareholdings and options, by turning round the sp - notwithstanding his (perhaps, more than) 'generous' remuneration.

GLA

@Y99, I think the company announced timescale for gas gathering upgrade was for installation through Q2. JV and RBL ‘strategic processes’ still ongoing (as per April report), so over 6 months, can’t be much longer – can it?

So, if all goes to plan, I would hope that Q3 should see some evidence of significant progress.

Lead up to AGM, and output from the event itself, should be interesting! Plenty of ‘left field’ possibilities.

GLA

@Brel, I thought ~30p was cheap at the time – but what do I know? Anyway some ‘positive rays’. Valuation discussion, my numbers rounded (so treat with great caution!).

(Warrants and Options ignored, dilution but cash received).

RNS 12/09/22 2P Reserves USD$492m (NPV10, 31.3 million barrels).

Debt = 154 bonds x $200k = $30.8m plus senior debt = ~$42m, say ~$73m.

Reserves valuation less total debt = $419m @ USD/GBP 1.25 = £335m.

No. shares = ~439.5m, so 76p / share.

Enterprise Value (EV) = Mcap + Debt – Cash (one estimate of co. acquisition value).

EV = Mcap ~$29m + Bond debt $31m + senior debt ~$42m – Cash ~$6m (assume some already committed) = ~$96m. So considerably less than Reserves based valuation, which highlights the massively depressed sp.

With note to the above, my preferred valuation, very simply based on ‘oil in the ground’ …

1bn barrels (per partial RS coverage, conservative), 20% recovery (conservative), value of oil in ground $6/barrel (conservative) = $1.2bn = £960m.

How many shares for above calc? 439.5m current plus (bonds 154 x 2.45m shares/bond = ) 377m, plus the senior debt converted (no idea what the deal is here?), let’s say same rate as bonds, gives ~514.5m shares = 1331m total.

£960m divided by 1331m = 72p/share.

Sort out the ‘real world’ practical issues and value will follow …

CC re-completions

Groundworks - gas pipe upgrade etc.

Managing the miscible flood – flaring, flowing/pumping, etc.

BFDU – JV, RBL, etc.

GLA (corrections, alternative models welcome)

Ps – what is Anavio’s ‘end game’ I wonder?

Https://twitter.com/Oliver__Curtis/status/1657353165623230464

Indeed, a most excellent read.

GLA

I see Aptamer Group (APT) have just ‘lost’ their CEO, Dr. Arron Tolley, being (effectively) replaced by Ian Gilham as exec Chairman.

Aptamer Group are really about Optimers which, like Affimers, are antibody mimetics but based on RNA/DNA, as opposed to Affimers which are based on human stefin.

For ~£9m we could more-or-less capture the market in alternatives to antibodies.

No doubt Sir Al aware?

GLA

Thanks Diesel ...

https://www.trinitydelta.org/research-notes/building-on-therapeutic-and-diagnostic-foundations/

GLA

https://webfiles.thecse.com/04_CSE_Form_7_-_Monthly_Progress_Report_-_April_2023.pdf?rZMoDZwJeo7JFxgUtR0xLaYjbFfiMoq.
Dated today, reaffirms what was already announced on April 20. So encouraging.
GLA

Perhaps we should take a look at Aptamer Group? Now only valued at ~£9m and looking for funding
Misnamed, as they are about Optimers - DNA / RNA based analogues of Affimers, so also antibody alternatives.
Would strengthen the technology base, and Launch could provide a distribution channel?
Just a thought.
GLA

Joking aside (but you never know), is this the ‘Club’ Arthur wants to join …?
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENQSSOG/components?p=%5ENQSSOG
They already have a ‘Southwestern’ something and the lowest stock price (of the top 30) is $9.8.
(Sorry to keep the speculation going, hope some ‘real’ news comes by soon).
GLA

Good news Eazy.
CC 11-27 recomplete / plug back to test Frontier-1 raised 12/12/2022, approved 15/12/2022.
(Also ‘cement squeeze of Niobrara raised / approved on same days).
RNS 23/01/2023 re ‘Frontier 1 Oil at Cole Creek’ – but definitely not straightforward.
March Oil 63 barrels, but Water 2766 barrels – so quite a lot happening! (WOGC download still showing Niobrara?),
CC 4-27 recomplete / plug back to test Frontier-1 raised 13/01/2023 approved 20/01/2023.
CC 12-23 recomplete / plug back raised 24/04/2023 approved 01/05/2023
Does look like we are making rapid progress and seems we are getting a good turnaround from WOGC.
A detailed update would, of course, be useful (please, Arthur).
GLA

Biggest losers …
BFU 34-20V – 1259, down -1691 on 7 fewer (only 13) days, flaring request 14/3
(Above only did 10 days in Jan after 31 in Dec when did 3765 barrels)
BFU 21-34V – 244, down -463 on same (25) days
BFU 22-27V – 966, down -249 on 5 more (31) days
COLE CREEK 31-17 – zero oil on 31 days ???
(Above is NW of 11-27 and possibly the farthest to the West, interesting ???)
BFU 44-21V – 2237, down -148 on 5 more (31) days, flaring request 14/3
BFU 14-23V – 671, down -146 on 4 more (30) days, flaring request 14/3
Total 12 losers.
But 25 wells have increased production, all but 1 on increased days.
Leading the pack …
COLE CREEK 11-22 – 984, up from 0 on 18 days
BFU 32-27V – 3698, up 734 on 6 more days, flaring request 14/3
BFU 44-22V – 2316, up 712 on 10 more days, flaring request 14/3
These followed by a pack of moderate improvers.
5 wells account for over 8400 barrels/month lost production compared to Dec, 3 of which had flaring approved on 14/3.
Bringing these larger producing wells back up to capacity will really help!
GLA

Apologies for the re-post ...
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1HeE648NWO44EeCe8ROqhpWiNam72Tck&ll=42.98184480336003%2C-106.07150462643361&z=14
"Just North of Cole Creek Road is 11-27 (re-completed as per RNS, previously not producing)
Then NNW of 11-27, 2nd one, is 4-27 (re-completion in hand, did 417 barrels in Nov)
Directly North of 11-27 is 11-22 (did 693 barrels in Nov from Frontier-2)
NE of 11-27, 2nd one, is 12-23 (did 181 barrels in Nov from Frontier-2)
Re-completion no. 3 – 11-22 or 12-23 ?"
Also see the rigzone article from Jan ...
https://www.rigzone.com/news/copl_starts_oil_production_at_cole_creek_unit_in_wyoming-24-jan-2023-171836-article/
3 out of 6/7 re-completions in hand.
GLA

The detail …
http://pipeline.wyo.gov/whatups/whatupsundry.cfm?nautonum=586324
(see downloaded pdf)
GLA

‘Hot off the press’ …
http://pipeline.wyo.gov/RepByCompsundr.cfm?oops=ID76840&RequestTimeOut=65000&nOpco=1769
Look like we’re moving again.
GLA

Listing on Nasdaq for TX maybe, but DX with Launch perhaps not a good fit?
That’s why I’m curious to see if we get a clear update on the strategy for Diagnostics.
The originally stated intent was …
“Acquisition accelerates Avacta's diagnostics strategy and is the first step in its drive towards building an integrated and differentiated IVD business with global reach”, and …
“The Acquisition is the first step in a M&A-led growth strategy by Avacta for its diagnostics division, with the vision of building an integrated and differentiated IVD business with global reach serving professionals and consumers. The Company believes that there is a significant commercial opportunity in the EU and the UK markets, which are fragmented, to build its position in the immunodiagnostics and molecular diagnostics value chain by acquiring companies that are complementary to Avacta's core strengths in research and development.”
Are we really sticking to the above strategy of growth through M&A for DX?
Should see enough of Launch financials to determine if it is self-sustaining. As we are witnessing the bonds issued (primarily) to acquire Launch being converted (only another £49.4m / ~42m shares to go) it’s almost a moot point as to whether Launch is profitable after bond repayments included.
We have Launch Diagnostics selling diagnostics products into UK and Europe, but no products (yet) from Avacta. Very little news recently on the commercialisation of Affimers, only significant (?) DX partner for Affimers being Astrea (Biotage). Plenty of interesting research papers out of Leeds University and others, but no real sense of direction.
Affimers are clearly a key platform component for TX – AffyXell, TMAC etc. But where are DX with commercialising Affimers? How does Launch fit in the ‘grand scheme’? Are we still on for growth through M&A?
GLA

Trinity Delta still suggesting “221p/share with potential upside from positive AVA6000 updates.”
https://www.trinitydelta.org/companies/avacta/
This before ‘Science Day’ and AVA6000 Cohort 5 @ 250mg/M2, plus US sites recruiting. ('Positive update' then?).
This before AVA3996 poster at AACR and Sir Al’s excellent update on this.
So are they waiting for the results and investor presentation to update their guidance?
GLA

Dr Tap recruiting …
https://www.withpower.com/trial/phase-1-sarcoma-6-2021-6f477
GLA

Some interesting material building up on the #AACR23 Twitter feed. For example, a lot of talk about ‘precision’ oncology.
This snippet kind of suggests we need some breakthroughs, wonder where pre|CISIONTM would sit on the graph (or just outside the top rhs corner)?
https://twitter.com/VivekSubbiah/status/1647308154420723712
GLA