Member Info for LiveLongnProsper

Let’s consider the record objectively …
Sir Al has been very good at managing Scientists and their programmes over many years.
However, we should be under no illusions that the actual underlying science originates, primarily, from William Bachovchin (Tufts) and Leeds University.
Some smart licensing deals done for pre|CISIONTM and Affimers.
Strong partnerships, particularly for TX – LG Chem and AffyXell, plus POINT Biopharma.
DX partnering with Astrea Bioseparations, now acquired by Biotage – so maybe some more to come?
But generally poor commercialisation (so far) of Affimers – plenty of R&D / papers though, clearly massive potential,
Very successful equity and debt finance raise for Launch and funding TX through 2024.
Looks like DX (via Launch) should be self-sustaining, including paying debt interest.
But Launch not exactly selling Abakta products (yet?).
Why buy a DX distribution company anyway? Need clarity on strategy here.
Why not buy (say) APTA who do Optimers, which, while overlapping with Affimers, are in a complimentary ‘space’ – and these guys are just ‘chipping away’ doing deals?
Are there some new DX / Affimer products / partnerships about to be announced?
Otherwise, IMO, the absolute focus should be on TX. Cohort 5/6 AVA6000, dosing, US sites etc. Plus accelerating AVA3996, via licensing (or acquisition) probably, and then the next pre|CISIONTM candidates.
On balance, while Sir Al’s focus is probably more on TX he is, perhaps (?), more suited now to running DX / Launch and shaping it into a properly balanced, integrated and cohesive business.
TX absolutely needs the attention of ‘Big Pharma’ – heavyweight management, resources and connections.
GLA

Per tom_the_bomb from Twit …
https://twitter.com/tom_the_bomb__/status/1638899986397122561
‘Fiddling about’ with the website again.
Always a good opportunity to play hunt the (what should have been an) RNS.
Can’t find one this time though,
Last one was 2xCOO appointments, though still don’t know what they’re doing?
Don’t think the new photos were necessarily RNS material?
But the AVA3996 stuff from SD, now accessible from website, most certainly was.
Anyway, I think tom_the_bomb is correct in that we are seeing ongoing incremental separation of TX and DX.
Well overdue a proper update.
GLA

Updated ..
https://avacta.com/therapeutics/pipeline/
Not sure what. Is it LR19128 (LG Chem) now pre-clinical? Or something else?
GLA

‘Matched pair’.
2023-03-14T16:07:37.000 GBX 5.92 210533 12463.5536 Off-Book SINT P LRG ECEU
2023-03-14T16:07:37.000 GBX 5.92 210533 12463.5536 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
ECEU delayed until after close. SINT (Systematic Internaliser) means II trade. Swap between accounts?
GLA

Governor says Aye.
GLA

A simple perspective from Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance …
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pfizer-buy-cancer-drugmaker-seagen-122037378.html
Read down the article to (perhaps?) the ‘nub’ of the Pfizer decision on how (apparently) to strengthen (‘double, even?) their cancer pipeline …
“Seagen is a leader in developing a type of medicine called antibody-drug conjugates, or ADCs. These precision medicines deliver cancer-killing drugs so potent they might otherwise be too toxic to use. The delivery mechanism uses antibodies to deposit a strong concentration of drug directly at a tumor site, which may increase efficacy with fewer side effects. Seagen’s portfolio will double Pfizer’s pipeline of early-stage experimental cancer therapies, the company said.”
ADC / Precision medicine, alternatives are available (e,g, pre|CISIONTM).
Delivery of cancer-killing drugs (e.g. Doxorubicin, possibly Bortezomib?).
Directly at Tumour site (perhaps via FAP triggered cleavage?).
How many ‘Big Pharma’ co.’s with lots of cash and needing to ’strengthen’ their Oncology pipelines?
GLA

While the PubChem site does seem to be updated on Saturday nights …
https://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/compound/118584251
There were specific updates for AVA6000 and the ‘leaving group’ on 03/03/23 …
https://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/#query=ava-6000&tab=substance
Perhaps the new information is relevant to the determination of dosing levels for Cohorts 5/6?
GLA

Updated today …
https://avacta.com/therapeutics/partnering/
AffyXell news soon maybe? Or LG Chem update?
From the SD presentation re AffyXell …
“Data will be presented at International Society for Cell & Gene Therapy, May 2023 (AffyXell and Avacta)”.
GLA

Interesting gmcc.
So “the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (“CFIUS”) has cleared the previously announced all-cash acquisition of the Company by invoX Pharma Limited (“invoX”).”
I.e. Nasdaq listed F-Star have been bought out by invoX Pharma Ltd (invoX), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited.
Now, just for interest of course, one of Sino Biopharm’s products is Bortezomib (aka Velcade) …
http://www.sinobiopharm.com/en/business-products/key-products/p1-tumour/#threemenu
And ‘hot off the press’ we know that ‘AVA3996 shows “Improved Therapeutic Index vs Velcade in patient derived tumours” and that Efficacy demonstrated in two further patient derived, solid tumour models’.
GLA

Feb vs Jan, nothing we don’t already know …
https://webfiles.thecse.com/02_CSE_Form_7_-_Monthly_Progress_Report_-_February_2023.pdf?ADv7MEac9y57hza5LanBG7n_HTW9kQms
3. Weather – snow.
13. Bond conversions / share settlements / waiver – “with the support of its Lender, pursuant to which the measurement date of its February 28, 2023 liquidity covenant (the "Liquidity Covenant") has been extended to 14 March 2023. The Liquidity Covenant will be measured based on average cash of $2.5 million from the period January 15, 2023 to March 14, 2023.”
14. Share issues.
17. The paragraph on – “The Issuer's Wyoming operations and operating cash flow have recently (during late December 2022 and January 2023) been impacted by weather-related downtime and long-lead times …” etc., has been removed, though now covered in 3.
GLA

‘Nothing new’ (haha).
Fiona noting “hot off the press” when introducing the AVA3996 update …
AVA3996 shows ‘Improved Therapeutic Index vs Velcade in patient derived tumours’ and that ‘efficacy demonstrated in two further patient derived, solid tumour models’.
Not to mention the re-designed phase 1b in 20 US & European sites.
Just a few of the easier to spot ‘not’ new snippets.
GLA

Would expect a ‘reasonable’ valuation based on a considered (and now significantly updated) view of the pipeline (not to mention a profitable / self-sustaining Diagnostics business), including partnerships, factoring in risk (‘chance of success’), future costs, etc.
On 17th January 2023 Trinity Delta valued AVCT @ 221p per share – the price then was 138p.
The current ‘low ball’ valuation could well risk (offer an opportunity for) an earlier than wanted acquisition and break up. That would be a great shame as we seem to be ‘on the cusp’ of great things.
What is holding things back? Well firstly the seeming hiatus regarding Cohorts 5 and 6 and the attendant dosing levels. As noted earlier, needs to be confirmed and commenced very soon to achieve mid-year completion of 1a.
(Oh, and where is the post-SD Trinity Delta update?).
GLA

Well page 80 of the SD presentation does (kind off) show the cohorts slightly overlapping in the timeline. Probably just for 'illustration' though. Wonder if part 2 of 1a is all part of the 'trial redesign' (as evidenced by the revised 1b - page 85) and we're waiting on approval from relevant bodies? Should find out soon if we are to complete 1a by mid-year.
GLA

I4LT, yes, I think you’re right, quite few expired now, think the April 2022 are still valid …
“Issued April 2022 – brokers' warrants (note 15c) 1,997,200 0.32 226 Apr 22/24”
Plus (as you note) the July 2022 ..
“Issued July 2022 – Bondholders' warrants (note 11) 54,792,590 0.20 - Jan 26/25”
And the latest batch.
Still, over the last year we’ve lost a good number.
On balance, ‘theory’ and all, looks like a good time to start the recovery. So much news to come …
RBL (then – like that thought), JV?
2 BFDU Horizontals.
2 CC re-completions underway (3rd to come?).
Flaring, groundworks, etc.
Unhedged production.
GLA

Just catching up with the ‘theory’ being discussed this evening. I think this is complimentary (in terms of reducing dilution)? From the Q3/22 Financials, regarding Warrants …
“Balance, December 31, 2021 16,291,518 0.38 1,173 (Jan 8/22 to Mar 8/23)”.
So (how I read this) 16.3m warrants @ USD$0.38 expire, if not taken up, on 8th March.
Note also that … “Subsequent to September 30, 2022, 24,965,000 unit warrants related to an April 2022 placing expired unexercised on October 22, 2022 and 5,895,000 brokers' warrants related to the issue of the Bonds expired unexercised on October 24, 2022”. (Actually, so maybe some of the 16.3m already gone?).
GLA

Fascinating.
2023-02-28T10:19:21.000 GBX 6 5000000 300000 Off-Book SINT P LRGS ECHO
Not obvious what’s going on here?
SINT MIC code (Systematic Internaliser dealing on own account for client orders), so definitely an II, but who is the client?
ECHO with no matching ECEU.
Last day of month. Month-end rollover? ‘Margin call’?
Day by which (from 1st Feb RNS) COPL “expects to secure a term sheet based on its 2022 year-end reserve report for the Wyoming Assets, which is expected to be available in late February 2023” and “The Company is also actively negotiating and intends to issue additional 2025 Bonds and warrants pursuant to a second tranche of the Winter Bond Financing (announced 3 January 2023), which is expected to close in February 2023 to support its near-term capital requirements”.
Could be interesting tomorrow.
GLA

Making the broad assumption that lost days are mostly weather related (though I know there will be other factors – de-waxing, groundworks, etc.). Really not too bad – and, remember, unhedged …
Lowlights (first, as no point trying too hard!)
BFU 21-35-76 ST A SN 3H, -1554 on Dec and on same (28) days, but subject to flaring request?
BFU 44-21V, -556 on Dec on 5 fewer days, so weather?
BFU 22-27V, -1674 on Dec on 4 more days, so some issues here?
BFU 34-20V, -2803 on Dec on 21 fewer days, so weather?
BFU FED 11-28V, -561 on Dec on 12 fewer days, so weather?
COLE CREEK 11-22, -584 on Dec as 0 days, offline so maybe the next re-completion well – I have previously identified this one (with 12-23) as the likely 3rd re-completion.
A few more on 1 to 18 fewer days (mostly 2/3 lost), equating to ~-2500 barrels lost.
Highlights (yes there are some good results!)
BFU FED 32-21V, +182 on same days.
BFU 44-22V, +610 on 1 fewer day.
BFU 32-27V, +157 on 2 fewer days.
BFU Fed 41-20V, +121 on 2 fewer days.
BFU 21-34V, +223 on same days.
COLE CREEK 31-17, +293 on 18 more days.
COLE CREEK 5-22, +343 on 7 more days.
Again, overall not bad.
Anyone with ‘hard’ info on 11-22? Would be very interesting.
GLA

Well their (Stifel) top folks were there and asked a couple of good questions …
Max Herrmann MD Stifel Healthcare asked Fiona a question about Velcade vs AVA3996.
Christian Glennie Director Equity Research Stifel asked about Affimer Bispecifics.
(Also Chris Hutchinson – Unicorn Asset Management and Philippa Gardner – Trinity Delta).
A few days to write up, raise a few questions, get answers, review - let’s see.
GLA

Nothing see there.
Only that AVA3996 shows “Improved Therapeutic Index vs Velcade in patient derived tumours” and that "Efficacy demonstrated in two further patient derived, solid tumour models”.
‘Hot of the press’, ‘indeed’? Nothing ‘materially new’. Graphs look nice though.
GLA

Updated to headline Science Day presentation …
https://avacta.com/category/investors/
Now in ‘Chapters’.
Avacta obviously very pleased (rightly) with how this went and highlighting the recording on the website.
Confidence is clearly very high.
GLA