Member Info for LiveLongnProsper

I4LT, good one. Now 2 BFDU wells in hand.
http://pipeline.wyo.gov/Wellapi.Cfm?oops=ID21323&nAPINO=949002
http://pipeline.wyo.gov/Wellapi.Cfm?oops=ID21323&nAPINO=949001
Things moving apace.
GLA

The Science Day is for 'City Analysts and Fund Managers'. We should know the p1a readout before then.
GLA

@shaa, a very good question.
Hedge Funds usually investing on behalf of private (wealthy) clients, II's, Insurance Co.'s etc. But could they possibly also be investing on behalf of an 'interested' potential acquirer?
GLA

Just following on from I4LT ...
https://sedar-filings-backup.thecse.com/00021327/2301041943269275.pdf
https://sedar-filings-backup.thecse.com/00021327/2301041943100520.pdf
So Anavio now have …
45 2024 Securities of $200,000 convertible @ $0.1583 = 56.854m shares.
59 2025 Securities of $200,000 convertible @ $0.1583 = 74.542m shares.
Original Warrants over 42,399m shares, plus new Warrants over 12.761m shares.
Total, after all converted / exercised = 186.556m (potential) shares.
On (say) ~500m shares (after management options counted) = ~37% of COPL.
This is a huge commitment from Anavio and demonstrates huge confidence in Arthur to deliver.
GLA
ps - as always, please correct my numbers as necessay

Yes, potentially ‘groundbreaking’. Delivery of ‘tried and tested’ Chemotherapy directly to the TME (and at > standard dose). Oh, and we can delivery other ‘tried and tested’ cancer killing therapies in the same way. This is potentially market ‘disrupting’. So all the more reason to take a few days to get the internal briefings done (also NED’s Paul Fry and Trevor Nicholls – Pharma business and finance guys). Sir Al has taken the trouble to bring in a very impressive NED team – when the news is released they will want to be right on top of both the science detail and the broader business impact.
GLA

Probably just need a few days for (maybe) Fiona, Neil, and the SAB to get themselves fully up-to-date and aligned with the P1a results. Then brief the NED’s - Christina Coughlin and Mark Goldberg particularly (being top Bio / Oncology folks). So doing the internal briefings this week for an announcement next week – which marks the start of a lot of ‘communicating’ ahead of the Science Day, seems perfectly reasonable.
GLA

Indeed, first CC recompletion underway …
http://pipeline.wyo.gov/Wellapi.cfm?oops=1&nAPINO=2523810
Just a reminder, read the Sundries Forms (under Approvals), we are now targeting Frontier-1.
GLA

@dougb189, review of numbers appreciated, cheers.
GLA

Have made an announcement …
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/anavio-equity-capital-markets-master-141900337.html
So the $4m is convertible into 25,268,460 shares (@ $0.1538, OK). Plus the original $12.6m @ $0.1538 = 81,924,577, total = 107,193,037 shares (when Bonds converted).
Plus another 12,760,572 Warrants. With the original 42,398,790, total = 55,159,362 shares (when warrants exercised).
Overall total = 162,352,399 shares out of what will now be ~500m, which is ~32.5%.
Now I know that is a different number to the % quoted above - does it mean 26.9% + 12.2%, and are management options missing …?
I will read the actual Bond Security docs when posted on Sedar and try and understand better.
In the meantime we know that the ‘Lead’ or ‘Cornerstone’ investor is the ‘Anavio Equity Capital Markets Master Fund Limited’.
So ‘who are these guys’ and what are their intentions, apart from making a lot of money?
Well they are a ‘Hedge Fund’ with AUM (I think) $80-90m, so quite small in some respects.
No doubt they would like to be more of a ‘mid-tier’ player – should be good for us?
Are they ‘risking’ client (private capital?) money on COPL?
Are they investing on behalf of one or more other parties?
These guys clearly have massive (complete and total?) confidence in Arthur, with whom they effectively control the destiny of COPL.
Exciting isn’t it!
Now let’s get with CC recompletions, BFDU wells, gas pipes etc., and get production up – of course while we continue JV discussions and RBL finance (if needed in the end).
GLA

Arthur may well be wearing a ‘Southfork Stetson’, bur regarding his OXY comment … “One only needs to look at Occidental Petroleum who have performed brilliantly with the support of a single long term lead institutional investor."
Perhaps worthy of note that ‘Anadarko E&P Onshore LLC’ are next door to us in Wyoming and producing a great deal of oil – now who owns Anadarko I wonder?
GLA
Ps – other folks ‘next door’ include – EOG, Continental, Devon, Denbury and Exxon (doing gas only, but XTO Energy – owned by Exxon, do a very small amount of oil along with gas)

For all LTH’s, looking to the week(s) ahead. Bonds may now start to be converted at the ‘reset’ price in significant numbers as the (increasing) sp will represent greater gains than just taking the interest payments. Below is my summary of the current ‘Bond related’ situation – remember the ‘market’ (Analysts, Fund Managers, MM’s, et al) know all this stuff, but we should be prepared for the usual ‘noise’ from some quarters.
2024 and 2025 convertible bonds, 63 each individual securities (total 126) @ principal of USD$200k, total USD$25.2m, discounted by 0.78 to USD$19,656,000, 13% interest. Originally convertible @ $USD$0.2001 / GBP£0.1675, but now reset to $USD$0.1583 / GBP£0.1325.
Plus 54,792,590 warrants and management options to consider.
Specifically, Anavio Equity Capital Markets Master Fund – principal USD$16.8m = 84 securities, plus 42,398,790 Warrants.
From Form-9 11 August 2022 …
UK 6 Purchasers – 16 x 2024, 16 x 2025 = 32
Mexico 1 Purchaser – 2 x 2024, 2 x 2025 = 4
Cayman Islands 2 Purchasers – 45 x 2024, 45 x 2025 = 90, Total = 126
May be another entity entirely (?), but Anavio are also in the Caymans …
https://aum13f.com/fund/anavio-equity-capital-markets-master-fund-limited
Conversions so far …
08/08/22 RNS – USD$2m principal (10 x 2025 securities) converted to 9,995,002 shares @ USD$0.2001,
12/08/22 RNS – USD$400k principal (2 x 2024 securities) converted to 1,999,000 shares @ USD$0.2001,
25/08/22 RNS – USD$400k principal (1 x 2024 plus 1 x 2025 securities) converted to 1,999,000 shares @ USD$0.2001,
22/09/22 RNS – USD$400k principal (2 x 2025 securities) converted to 1,999,000 shares @ USD$0.2001.
26/10/22 RNS – USD$400k principal (2 x 2025 securities) converted to 1,999,000 shares @ USD$0.2001.
04/11/22 RNS – USD$1,400k principal (4 x 2024 plus 3 x 2025 securities) converted to 6,996,500 shares @ USD$0.2001.
This leaves COPL with 275,331,966 shares issued.
So far - 7 x 2024 and 18 x 2025, total 25, securities converted.
Remaining – 2024 $11.2m = 56, 2025 $9.0m = 45, total = 101.
So based on the ‘reset’ price of USD$0.1583 (GBP£0.1325) and with 101 x $200,000 = $20,200,000 total principal outstanding, if everyone converts we get $20.2m / $0.1583 = 127.6m new shares issued. This would makes a total of 275.3m + 127.6m = 402.9m shares plus warrants and options – so a potential total of around ~475m shares.
Assuming Anavio are yet to covert (?) their 84 securities @ $200k = $16.8m principal = 106.1m shares, or a little over 22% fully diluted. For me this leaves Anavio and Arthur (holdings and options) as the key players.
GLA
Ps – my numbers from reading co. docs, but please correct as necessary with sources.

Wish I could predict!
My ‘base case’ for a possible acquisition of either – COPL, or maybe SWP. The latter leaving COPL as an exploration co. again (after paying shareholders a very large one-off dividend of course!).
If the term ‘JV’ is really meant, i.e. not actually a euphemism for acquisition discussions, then we need to see how the JV is being ‘framed’. But why would an ‘Oil Major’ want COPL as Operator for ‘their’ huge new asset – and which they may want to use for CO2 storage as the reservoir is depleted?
Either way Arthur is ‘in driving seat’ and setting the pace. Whatever the outcome, I personally think that 2023 will be a very good year.
GLA

COPL RS report OIP 993m @ (say) 20% recovery = 198m @ (a conservative) $6 (for recoverable ‘oil in the ground’) =$1,188m. Then reduce for debt to (say, to get a nice round number) $1,100m, then assume we have 450m shares, that gives $2.44/share, @ $1.21/£ = ~£2/share.
All above very conservative, for example - RS didn’t cover the whole patch, we expect better than 20% recovery, CO2 storage opportunity not considered, etc, etc.
(Note - I need to recalc potential no. of shares based on bond ‘reset’ pricing).
mEM, panama – of course I prefer your numbers, and genuinely think above ‘answer’ is low, just think we should try and build on a ‘base case’.
GLA

Spread @ 09:58 15.0/15.5 (Morningstar), so you might think a sell … but, trade flag TNCP – so not price forming, so price probably the VWAP for an order filled in blocks, VWAP for the day ~14.9. Draw your own conclusions.
GLA

23.12.22 09:58:24 15.13 GBX 1,250,000 189,150.00 Off-Book TNCP LRGS XLON XLON
Indeed an excellent way to sign off!
GLA

Highlights …
BFU 34-20V, Nov +868 on Oct
BFU FED 33-23V, Nov +360 on Oct
BFU FEDERAL 41-34H, Nov +462 on Oct
BFU FED 32-21V, Nov +644 on Oct
‘Lowlights’ …
BFU 21-35-76 ST A SN 3H, Nov -2,620 on Oct, only 15 days
BFU 44-21V, Nov -971 on Oct
BFU Fed 11-22V, Nov -759 on Oct
BFU 22-27V, Nov only 15 in 1 days production, should be 3000+
Just sorting a couple of the larger producing wells will make all the difference.
I think Arthur explained the delays in flaring kit being installed. We are flaring now, the gas recovery upgrade is in hand, plus the new wells …
GLA

Arthur mentioned the Salt Creek Field (35 miles to the North) which has produced about 800 million barrels of oil (and still going). He suggested, that while CC is not as big, it is “an analogy to it”.
The Salt Creek Field is well known as one of the largest ever in the USA …
https://www.wyohistory.org/field-trips/salt-creek-oil-field
I suspect we are on the verge of something spectacular.
GLA

Talking about extending to the East and getting someone’s attention and then saying words to the effect … ‘if open enough thinkers, its right there in front of you …’.
To the East we have – Continental, Devon and Occidental.
Great interview, things clearly moving fast.
GLA

From the first link (WOGC in 'real-time', maybe the second one later?) ...
API Number Well Name Lease Number Permit to Drill Filed By
49-009-49002 BFDU 41-30-3576FH SOUTHWESTERN PRODUCTION CORPORATION
Surface Location
1026 FNL 1310 FEL ( NE NE ) SEC 30 T35N R76W
Bottom-Hole Location
1058 FSL 2444 FEL ( SW SE ) SEC 19 T35N R76W
Target Reservoir Field Name Total Depth Approved
FRONTIER-2 WC 8,961 12/20/2022
Unit WYW182390X
GLA

Approved today …
BFDU 41-30-3576FH
http://pipeline.wyo.gov/Wellapi.Cfm?oops=ID21323&nAPINO=949002
Waiting for BFDU 42-19-3576FH …
http://pipeline.wyo.gov/Wellapi.Cfm?oops=ID21323&nAPINO=949001
GLA