Member Info for LiveLongnProsper

Or maybe completed and we are …
Analysing data (including from biopsies?),
Having results independently checked and verified,
Preparing the ‘data package’ for presentation at a (shortly to be announced) ‘science day’,
Getting the wording of the ‘headline’ announcement agreed and checked by various advisors,
Etc.
Would expect these things to take (say) 2 or 3 weeks at least.
Taking trial days info from @RAH00084 from Twit) …
https://twitter.com/RAH00084/status/1593211301337378816
Then add 21 days to the 64 days for C3, the 77 days (so far) for C4 looks perfectly OK.
GLA

This trade, which looked like a straightforward buy …
2022-11-16T16:12:18.437 GBX 117.23 112745 132170.9635 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
Seemingly ‘matched’ for volume by this one, after hours …
2022-11-16T17:39:11.217 GBX 117.218 112745 132157.4341 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
Just a coincidence no doubt (haha)..?
GLA

This Clovis SEC filing shows who they considered competitors …
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1466301/000155837022001810/clvs-20211231x10k.htm
Page 20 - POINT Biopharma for radioligands.
Page 21 – Avacta for pre|CISION and TMAC (AVA6000 specifically mentioned).
Perhaps worth a look at the competition identified generally. The Clovis product Rubraca going head-to-head with Lynparza (AZN and Merck)!
GLA

Interesting posts from @boy_cellar on Twit, re Clovis …
https://twitter.com/boy_cellar/status/1590825086822809602
https://twitter.com/boy_cellar/status/1590827938370527250
Maybe more opportunities for PointBiopharma and CanSeek (aka pre|CISION)?
GLA

Another weird trade @ 95p, again for 688 shares, must be a ‘significant number in ‘MM code’, haha …
2022-11-10T16:40:55.307 GBX 95 688 653.6 Off-Book AIMX PRIC P AIMX
(UT was 117p).
Posted earlier …
Nothing to worry about, just some weird trade related to the raise (spookily @ 95p) …
2022-11-10T12:08:53.510 GBX 95 688 653.6 Off-Book AIMX OILQ P AIMX
If interested, OILQ definition …
“OILQ Negotiated transaction in illiquid financial instruments flag”
“Transactions executed in accordance with Article 4(1)(b)(ii) of Regulation (EU) No 600/2014.”
“(ii) in an illiquid share, depositary receipt, ETF, certificate or other similar financial instrument that does not fall within the meaning of a liquid market, and are dealt within a percentage of a suitable reference price, being a percentage and a reference price set in advance by the system operator; or …”
There, ‘clear as mud’.
GLA

Nothing to worry about, just some weird trade related to the raise (spookily @ 95p) …
2022-11-10T12:08:53.510 GBX 95 688 653.6 Off-Book AIMX OILQ P AIMX
If interested, OILQ definition …
“OILQ Negotiated transaction in illiquid financial instruments flag”
“Transactions executed in accordance with Article 4(1)(b)(ii) of Regulation (EU) No 600/2014.”
“(ii) in an illiquid share, depositary receipt, ETF, certificate or other similar financial instrument that does not fall within the meaning of a liquid market, and are dealt within a percentage of a suitable reference price, being a percentage and a reference price set in advance by the system operator; or …”
There, ‘clear as mud’.
GLA

Radioligands really do need to be highly targeted. The alpha or beta emissions from the radio isotopes being ‘transported’ through the body just keep on going and risk tissue, cell, DNA damage etc. You can’t turn the radiation off – unlike the inert state of ‘transported’ chemotherapy (Prodoxorubicin). Point will massively benefit from AVA6000 success, CanSeek trials will probably be initiated very quickly.
GLA

US Energy Information Administration forecasting Brent @ $95.33 for 2023 – released today …
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/index.php
But then goes on to predict increased production in the USA …
“Growth in OPEC and non-OPEC oil production—most notably production in the United States—keeps the Brent crude oil price in our forecast lower on an annual average basis in 2023 than in 2022. However, we expect the Brent crude oil price will begin rising in 2H23.”
GLA

Anavio Capital Markets have the potential to hold ~126m shares (bonds converted, warrants exercised), so 25%+ shareholders fully diluted. Anavio are a ‘hedge fund’, and so are probably after making a lot of money. Then we have AM’s holdings and options. Don’t think too much risk of a ‘low ball’ takeout.
And, as noted by LT, when the SP starts to rise would expect other II’s to become interested.
Let’s see where the Exxon ‘thing’ goes.
GLA

Fiona on @ 17:30 CET, only 15 mins, but looks like a great networking event …
https://www.icpo-fap-summit.org/files/ICPO%20FAP%20Summit%202022/downloads/ICPO2022_ICPO_Theranostics_FAP_Summit_Preliminary_Programme.pdf
Remember this, SOFIE 6/8/22 – see page 15 …
https://sofie.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/FAP-Webinar-6.8.22-FINAL.pdf
Uwe Haberkorn, Ken Herrmann and Prof. Frederik Giesel at ICPO
Also, Christian Klein of Roche spotted a couple of weeks ago by Hurst10 and tom_the_bomb …
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=AVCT&share=Avacta&thread=09F5ECBE-E1DA-45AF-9EC7-FC68F70D6CCB
And Richard Cioci, Associate Director, Clinical Science at POINT Biopharma. AVA6000 success is the ‘green light’ for CanSEEK (sub-licensed from both Bach Biosciences and Avacta Life Sciences, which has branded the technology as pre|CISION™ (an Avacta trademark).)
GLA

https://webfiles.thecse.com/07_CSE_Form_7_-_Monthly_Progress_Report_-_October_2022.pdf?rfgC0B_eXbrlntkcmpR75yHafqoBwbKk
Not much new, and nothing we don’t already know …
2. Additionally – “furthering the development of the large conventional oil discovery made in the Frontier sands at Cole Creek Unit and its Barron Flats Deep Unit …”
3. Flaring approved.
14. More Bond redemptions.
GLA

Neil Bell @ ~2:30 (when sound quality really poor), says (paraphrasing) of the pre|CISION platform and chemotherapy …
‘where there is a high unmet need’, ‘identify the relevant linkers’, ‘develop those drug candidates into the clinic ASAP ..’.
So looks like the new hire (Pre-Clinical Director) will have to hit the ground running.
GLA

Continental Resources Q3 02 Nov …
https://investors.clr.com/2022-11-02-CONTINENTAL-RESOURCES-ANNOUNCES-3Q22-RESULTS
Net Income $1.0bn. FCF $1.0bn. $1.8bn cash.
Total production ~414,400 boepd, PRB production ~31,234 boepd.
Focus seems to be on the Hamm family takeover.
Posted this earlier, but for comparison - Devon Q3 01 Nov 2022 …
https://s2.q4cdn.com/462548525/files/doc_financials/quarterly/2022/q3/Q3-2022-DVN-Earnings-Release.pdf
https://s2.q4cdn.com/462548525/files/doc_financials/quarterly/2022/q3/Q3-2022-DVN-Earnings-Presentation.pdf
Net earnings $1.9bn. FCF increased to $1.5bn. $1.3bn cash.
Total production ~614,000 boepd. PRB production ~18,000 boepd. And doing work adjacent to us …
“Capital activity in the quarter was focused on progressing the appraisal of the Niobrara oil play in Converse County.”
Devon seem very acquisition focused just now?
(As for the Sept production, Arthur was quite clear with messaging – “Finally, observers of our production at the Shannon miscible flood should understand that production will rise incrementally from the gas flaring initiative. It is not as simple as just opening valves. The wells have been restricted for some time; thus, the produced oil is extremely volatile requiring the most prudent of oilfield practice." Oh, and finding 6 wells to re-complete in the Atomic ‘filing cabinet’ was quite a ‘master stroke’, haha).
GLA

If this summary is up-to-date with individual submissions (i.e. off the same database) …
http://pipeline.wyo.gov/StateProduction.cfm?nYear=2022
then the bottom line would suggest that there is something of a backlog of September data to upload to the WOGC site. So maybe it’s not just COPL …?
GLA

Anavio are the key players, along with Arthur.
Anavio Equity Capital Markets Master Fund Bonds – principal USD$16.8m = 84 securities each convertible to 995,000 shares (total 83,580,000), plus 42,398,790 Warrants.
So this makes Anavio (potentially) by far the largest shareholder.
Seems possible (even likely?) that they will be looking to make more money than they will receive in interest payments or an early buyback (albeit at a premium).
If so, I would expect bonds to be converted once the RBL and/or JV are sorted. This would put them in a position to massively influence any prospective takeover. I would also expect that they will be targeting a lot (considerably) more than 40p.
GLA

Devon Q3 01 Nov 2022 …
https://s2.q4cdn.com/462548525/files/doc_financials/quarterly/2022/q3/Q3-2022-DVN-Earnings-Release.pdf
https://s2.q4cdn.com/462548525/files/doc_financials/quarterly/2022/q3/Q3-2022-DVN-Earnings-Presentation.pdf
Net earnings $1.9bn. FCF increased to $1.5bn. $1.3bn cash.
Total production ~614,000 boepd. PRB production ~18,000 boepd. And doing work adjacent to us …
“Capital activity in the quarter was focused on progressing the appraisal of the Niobrara oil play in Converse County.”
Continental release Q3 numbers later today.
GLA

Yes, Continental production phenomenal. But they may need to ‘top up’ reserves soon …
https://www.clr.com/operations/
A little over 1.6bn barrels of reserves (if anyone can find more up-to-date info that would be interesting).
Continental Resources Q3 results due on 3rd Nov, but Q2 make interesting reading …
https://investors.clr.com/2022-07-28-CONTINENTAL-RESOURCES-ANNOUNCES-2Q22-RESULTS,-DECLARES-QUARTERLY-DIVIDEND,-UPDATES-VARIOUS-2022-GUIDANCE-METRICS-DIFFERENTIALS
Q2 PRB production 27.2Mboepd, up from just 6.0 in 2021.
Net debt $5.75bn (inc. cash of $553m), but FCF $1.23bn in the quarter.
I think they have (or had) an untapped ‘revolver’ facility of ~$1.9bn …
https://investors.clr.com/download/072822+Investor+Update_July+2022.pdf
But all this is going to be complicated by the cash offer from Omega (Hamm Family) …
https://investors.clr.com/2022-10-24-Omega-Acquisition,-Inc-Commences-Cash-Tender-Offer-for-Shares-of-Continental-Resources,-Inc
In summary, for Continental’s production (~400Mboepd, say ~150 million barrels per year) to be sustained and increased they will need to find some more oil soon. They need to sustain and increase production to pay their interest, pay their investors dividends (well at least one more lot, then perhaps just the Hamm family?) and pay off their debt. Where is there another 1.6bn barrels I wonder? Oh, yes …
GLA

“Fiona will be delivering a key update on Avacta Therapeutics’ lead pre|CISION™ programme, AVA6000 – a tumour-activated form of doxorubicin – on Sat 5th Nov (“Pre-clinical Development of AVA6000 – a FAP targeted chemotherapeutic agent in Phase I”, 17:30 – 17:45 CET, Session VI).”
Audience member question, perhaps (?) … ‘Given that you are around 470 days into patient trials, 4 cohorts, and 3 dose escalations, you must have some good data, so does it work?’
Possible replies ….?
GLA

Yep, likely spreaders balancing. ECHO/XOFF an indicator. Nevertheless, a £101k 'clear out' bodes well.
GLA

Interesting find @1509 and fascinating document @illusion. Thanks both.
From the @1509 link - “Last Form 2 08/2022”. Form 2 purpose …
“Use Wyoming Form 2 to report volumes of oil or gas produced by wells, for wells producing in the state of Wyoming.
The Wyoming Form 2 is the “Operator’s Monthly Report of Wells”. The report reports on:
Volumes produced and sold
Volumes injected into wells.
Report results can be submitted using the smartforms. The report is submitted to the Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission (WOGC).”
So even if reporting 0 barrels, still seems to be some activity?
GLA