Member Info for LiveLongnProsper

While I prefer the Goldman forecast, other forecasts are available …
https://www.statista.com/statistics/409404/forecast-for-uk-brent-crude-oil-prices/
Brent @ $104 for 2022 easing to $97 in 2023, so WTI (say) $2-3 lower.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/409404/forecast-for-uk-brent-crude-oil-prices/
US government forecasting $98 for rest of 2022 with $91 in 2023.
Our current swap / hedge is …
384,187 barrels for Jan 1/22 to Dec 31/22 @ $56.58 and 416,772 barrels for Jan 1/23 to Feb 29/24 @ $52.87. I think we’ve done about 354k barrels so far this year to Jul. So by now we should be selling unhedged – if that’s how it works?
Question for me is – is it worth buying out the (less favourable and for more oil) 2023 hedge for a higher rate (given AM has said there will be some level of hedge for the RBL), or will we run on 2-tiers of hedging post-RBL? Would appreciate thoughts from anyone more knowledgeable in this area.
GLA

Courtesy @BMHLTD from Twit …
https://twitter.com/BMHLTD/status/1573398653863358464
https://twitter.com/BMHLTD/status/1573394133422837760
Makes sense to me. That is, find the “optimal biologic dose” as opposed to the MTD? Why go beyond the dose level that is having maximum benefit? But to find this, with (in our case) a pre|CISION delivered chemotherapy – that is ‘dropped’ (‘predominately’) in the TME, no doubt requires the pattern of dose escalation we are seeing. But to make any sense, beyond basic safety and tolerability, we must be analysing actual anti-tumour activity?
GLA

£/$ rate coukd be making us look more attractive to US buyer?
GLA

RBL coming soon.
If expected post-RBL value of your converted shares greater than value of your debt paid back (at a premium), then you would convert, wouldn’t you?
Also, shares give voting rights.
Remember Anavio Equity Capital Markets Master Fund have 42m warrants plus the potential for another 168m shares (from their 84 convertible bonds), total potential 210m shares.
Post-RBL and production increase, suspect very very significant changes to size and shape of COPL. No wonder AM ‘topping up’ when he can.
GLA

Running a bit late in announcing date for H1 results ?
(Announced 09/09/21 for 30/09/21, and 14/09/20 for 28/09/20).
If October / November is to be (good) news ‘rich’, would have thought might get this out the way sooner rather than later? Alternatively, might want H1 to be a bigger ‘event’?
GLA

Looks like a concerted effort to keep the price @ 21 by RBC Capital, multiple 500 share trades to themselves! A bit suspicious?
GLA

While we wait for the AVA6000 PK readout, licensing deals, potential Nasdaq listing, etc., the SARS-Cov-2 virus continues to ‘evolve’.
Emerging Omicron variant BA.2.75.2 escaping all but one (tested) antibody …
https://mobile.twitter.com/BenjMurrell/status/1570862197827567620
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.09.16.508299v1.full.pdf
Not clear if anti-virals (such as Paxlovid) are effective?
Still think that we might need neutralising Affimers as a ‘back stop’ at some point. Does anyone know if this research (RNS 15/05/20) is still continuing?
GLA

luckyboy, Eazy, thanks, very encouraging. Look forward to Aug production and next update.
GLA

Can anyone confirm if this is one of the wells being cleared of wax, or temporarily shutdown due to pressure issues? Was producing @ ~5000 barrels per month, then dropped to 3000 in June, with no oil in July. Thanks.
GLA

'This drug' (Doxorubicin) is very well understood. Just a question of proving safe delivery to, and activation in, the TME.
GLA

As of 25/08/22 14 securities converted, 112 left (so potential for ~112m new shares), ~264m shares issued, ~55m Warrants outstanding, ~15m Options outstanding, overall (potential total) = ~446m shares (I am currently using ~500m as basis for my own valuation and target). On 2P NPV10 (as of 31/07/22 – RNS 12/09/22, ~USD$492m =) GBP£427m makes AM’s 50p look conservative. Oh, nearly forgot, we have another 1bn barrels @ 10-40% recovery not included in calculations.
GLA

@wwal17, comments absolutely 'spot on'. Let's keep this thread going for the morning.
Great stuff from Arthur.
GLA

Maximum ‘Cheshire Cat’ grin from AM as he says (paraphrasing) of COPL …
Extraordinary asset base
Extremely undervalued
Everything we need to do [for RBL]
90% probability that will exceed Proved Reserves
Equally likely that Proved plus Probable will be greater
$110-115m EV (plus upside to come)
Awful lot of upside in SP once market figures it out
RBL end this month / early Oct
Re-finance senior debt – pay them off
Very good miscible front
Production will increase
High pressures at surface, flaring, some fixes done, working on this [gas gathering]
Utilise funds to move Proved Undeveloped to Proved Producing
$254m Proved Reserves
Confident we will succeed, takes company to a different level …
GLA

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/What-Recession-The-US-Oil-Industry-Wont-Stop-Growing.html
Just posted on BP. Bodes well.
GLA

CSE requirement, so the whole thing should be published. Last Cuda 51-101F1 in May 2021, I think?
GLA

Probably this one ...
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220907005310/en/Good-Therapeutics-Announces-Acquisition-of-Conditionally-Active-PD-1-regulated-IL-2-Program-by-Roche
Avacta is a publicly traded company.
Regarding Roche, one of Sir Al's favourites in terms of aspiration, so who knows - sometime maybe?
GLA

Canadian ...
https://www.bcsc.bc.ca/securities-law/law-and-policy/instruments-and-policies/5-ongoing-requirements-for-issuers-insiders/current/51-101/51101f1-statement-of-reserves-data-and-other-oil-and-gas-information-f1
AM has previously noted the more stringent (than US, Europe) Canadian regulations.
Also, the 51-101F1 includes Reserves valuations, and AM mentioned the increase in oil prices since the last Reserves Report.
GLA

Yes, AM committed to updated reserves report and filing 51-101F1 (Statement of Reserves Data and Other Oil and Gas Information) - on last Proactive interview. As noted, RS previously did Cuda Reserves and have just done the Resource Report, so new Reserves update shouldn't be too long.
Reserves Update - RBL - Production Uplift - all coming together.
GLA

‘Nasdaq News’ picked up on AVA6000 ODD …
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/avactas-ava6000-gets-fda-orphan-drug-designation-to-treat-soft-tissue-sarcoma-stock-up
I think the first report relating to Avacta on this ‘channel’ since early 2021.
Just for information ….
GLA

https://webfiles.thecse.com/07_CSE_Form_7_-_Monthly_Progress_Report_-_August_2022.pdf?UBdt4JYhUQ9zh545bbJ6wn53R6c0RxUO
Nothing we don’t already know about …
Item 1 - “and independently in other countries.” – removed.
Item 2 - “focused on oil production at the Barron Flats Shannon Miscible Flood
Unit (“BFU”) as well as on an acquisition of additional interest in its Wyoming
Assets” – removed (Cuda done).
“as well as on refinancing its exiting senior credit facility following the
acquisition of the Cuda assets in July 2022.” – added
Item 3 – Ryder Scott – added
Item 7 – “none to report”
Item 13 and 14 – about the Bond issue.
Item 17 – added “and resulted in volatility in oil and gas prices”
GLA