Member Info for LiveLongnProsper

A few words from Dr William Tap (courtesy tom_the_bomb) …
https://twitter.com/tom_the_bomb__/status/1629246295998078977
The implications for AVA6000 are …
GLA

‘Market’ needs some clear direction from Analysts with the relevant expertise. Very soon I would expect.
Paul Hill’s note on VOX the first ‘Analyst’ comments (I’ve seen at least). Paul starts by noting that (of course!) “no material new information disclosed”, but then lists 8 ‘main takeaways’ (all there to read on the VOX site).
Now also attending were Stifel – our ‘house’ broker.
Max Herrmann MD Stifel Healthcare asked Fiona a question about Velcade vs AVA3996.
Christian Glennie Director Equity Research Stifel asked about Affimer Bispecifics.
How soon will a briefing note be ready for their Institutional and Private clients? (Stifel AUM ~$400bn).
And when will we hear from Trinity Delta?
GLA

AS is absolutely delivering.
AVA6000 – what can you say except ‘read it and weep’.
AVA3996 (pages 18-20) – “IND enabling studies”, “Improved Therapeutic Index vs Velcade in patient derived tumours”, “Data will be presented at AACR April 2023 (David Jones and Fiona McLaughlin)”
Affimer (pages 21 – 25) – AVA021 Bispecific, AVA028 Immunocytokine, TMAC – skimmed over, understated, massive potential
AffyXell (pages 27-28) – “Data will be presented at International Society for Cell & Gene Therapy, May 2023 (AffyXell and Avacta)”.
AVA6000 – Cohort 5/6, dosing levels?
AVA6000 – Phase 1b, +2 US sites (inc. MSK under Dr William Tap?).
This is too big for Avacta as currently defined and constituted, so where do we go from here …?
Licensing – AVA3996? Others?
VC backed JV(s) (as per AffyXell) with ‘Big Pharma’?
RTO to Nasdaq?
Therapeutics acquired by ‘Big Pharma’? (Diagnostics continues with some IP access).
Merge with complimentary co. to create research-led Oncology ‘giant’.
‘Big Pharma’ acquire?
GLA

Question to Dr William Tap @ ~2:30. Paraphrasing. Assuming AVA6000 is ‘a better dox’, is it going to be AVA6000 alone or in combination? Dr Tap – ‘Both’, a doxorubicin (i.e. AVA6000) better than ‘standard doxorubicin’ overnight becomes ‘the standard of care …’.
GLA

Well Paul Hill was in the audience and asked a question of Fiona (~42:50) about the 'leaving group' and pretty much 'does it work'? See Fiona's smile.
GLA

@dougb, my 37% potential shares for Anavio based on their warrants and bond holdings (if/when converted) and a guesstimate of ~500m shares fully diluted. I4LT suspects the 37% is actually nearer ~50% - which is a perfectly reasonable view.
What we don't know specifically is if Anavio have yet converted any bonds and so may be in receipt of additional shares?
However you look at it Anavio are well positioned to 'broker' an acquisition - any shortfall vs 50% could easily be bought on the open market. The detailed documents that follow from the recent RNS's are yet to posted on Sedar - will have a look when this is done.
Should a large O&G co. take a controlling stake via Anavio (all pure speculation of course), then that's when the SP should recover to true value as to complete requires (I think ) 90%.
Of course COPL may simply get through the short-term cash flow problem, increase unhedged production, sort out groundworks, delivery a massively upgraded Resource / Reserves Report - via CC recompletions and BFDU Horizontals, and just get on with being a cash generating and self-sustaining Oil co.
GLA

https://avacta.com/therapeutics/
Absolutely brilliant video.
“Exquisitely selected cleavage site …”.
“Use the pre|CISION substrate on a range of chemotherapeutic agents for the next generation of targeted drug technologies”.
Lovely American accent.
Fantastic!
GLA

Are they still updating the website? Looks like partnering changed …
https://avacta.com/therapeutics/partnering/
Seem to have lost the reference to LG’s $310m I thought was new (but, as per gmcc, had been there for a couple of months)?
Hope they finish the updates in time for the ‘big event’ tomorrow.
GLA

No worries gmcc. Has anything changed here ...
Re LG Chem – are these just the same numbers, now presented as a total?
Interim results for period to 30 June 2022 …
“Avacta could earn up to $55 million in milestone payments for each of these new products. In
addition, under the agreement Avacta will earn royalties on all future Affimer XT® product sales by LG Chem.”
Therapeutics web page today …
“commercialisation deal with LG Chem worth up to $310m …”.
GLA

Website updated today …
https://avacta.com/therapeutics/
(Also Diagnostics).
More ‘Spring Cleaning’ ahead of the big day?
GLA

I4LT, good point. And, of course, any 'interested party' could always buy a few on the open market - maybe sight of a revised RS report would be the trigger.
GLA

A couple of points.
Ryder Scott being commissioned for a further report.
Makes sense for COPL in terms of getting best ‘Reserves’ no. for RBL.
Makes sense for JV (or party interested in acquisition) to validate the asset.
But only makes sense if BFDU horizontals completed – both approved, both flagged ‘confidential …
http://pipeline.wyo.gov/Wellapi.Cfm?oops=ID21323&nAPINO=949002
http://pipeline.wyo.gov/Wellapi.Cfm?oops=ID21323&nAPINO=949001
and, if 2 or 3 CC Frontier-1 recompletions completed, 11-27 looking good …
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/COPL/copl-announces-frontier-1-oil-at-cole-creek-mdfoh53t4scntnr.html
4-27 underway …?
http://pipeline.wyo.gov/Wellapi.cfm?oops=1&nAPINO=2523811
Now the third one (if needed), look at the map …
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1HeE648NWO44EeCe8ROqhpWiNam72Tck&ll=42.98184480336003%2C-106.07150462643361&z=14
Just North of Cole Creek Road is 11-27 (re-completed as per RNS, previously not producing)
Then NNW of 11-27, 2nd one, is 4-27 (re-completion in hand, did 417 barrels in Nov)
Directly North of 11-27 is 11-22 (did 693 barrels in Nov from Frontier-2)
NE of 11-27, 2nd one, is 12-23 (did 181 barrels in Nov from Frontier-2)
So, maybe re-completion no. 3 – 11-22 or 12-23 ?
The above, IMO, necessary for a comprehensive, updated, Resource Report.
Second Point (not directly RS related).
By my estimation Anavio (assuming no conversions so far) now have 104 securities of $200,000 convertible @ $0.1583 = ~131.4m shares, plus original Warrants over 42,399m shares, plus new Warrants over 12.761m shares. Total, after all converted / exercised = 186.56m (potential) shares. On (say) ~500m potential shares (after management options counted) = ~37%. (My numbers, so please check and correct as required).
The point being, Anavio are very close to being able to ‘broker’ the acquisition of COPL by an interested (rich) party – just a few more bonds would ‘swing it’.
Interesting times.
GLA

‘Indeed’.
Market sensitive info must be RNS’d.
New Cohort(s). Dosing levels.
Data that “selected key opinion leaders in the field of oncology” will be analysing and speaking about.
Data that are ‘unequivocal’.
GLA

(AVA6k)
Well hopefully William Bachovchin will be taking some plaudits for AVA6000 by the time this conference comes around.
Good to see Cytiva are ‘Associate Sponsors’ – getting the ‘team’ back, just like the ‘old days’ (haha).
GLA

This page updated today ...
https://avacta.com/therapeutics/pipeline/
GLA

https://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/compound/118584251
Updated Saturday.
GLA

“… Science Day for City analysts and fund managers on 23rd February 2023 to discuss recent progress within the Company's Therapeutics Division and hear from selected key opinion leaders in the field of oncology.”
Alan, Neil and Fiona + SAB + NED’s, will know the detail. But ‘analysts’ and ‘fund managers’ will hear from ‘key opinion leaders in the field of oncology’ – some of the above could no doubt be described as such. However, they are not independent. I would expect that other, ‘independent’, experts will be invited to give their opinions. So they will need to be briefed on the full data package.
At this point perhaps we start to stretch the idea of NDA’s a bit too far?
With just over a week to go I would expect that such further information, presumably market sensitive, would be put out in a co. RNS?
GLA

Re my 17:29 post 1.13 is the EUR/GBP Exchange Rate, haha. (Echo trade, round number of Euros? You never know).
GLA

Probably means nothing, but, plus or minus a few $, the value of those 2 x 540,221 trades is just on €2,100,000 @1.13.
(Just a round number coincidence?).
GLA

Just a reminder that the 2 Fed Deep ‘horizontals’ are approved and flagged ‘confidential’.
BFDU 41-30-3576FH – “Approved 12/20/2022” (MDY), “Anticipated Spud Date 1/8/2023” (MDY) ...
http://pipeline.wyo.gov/Wellapi.Cfm?oops=ID21323&nAPINO=949002
“Southwestern Production Corp proposes to drill a pilot hole to 9,079' TVD in the Frontier formation, then kick off horizontally to 8,961' TVD/11,053' MD to test the Frontier 2 D Sand formation. If productive, casing will be run as well is completed.”
“Sage-Grouse Population Area? No”
BFDU 42-19-3576FH – “Approved 01/05/2023” (MDY), “Anticipated Spud Date 2/8/2023” (MDY) ...
http://pipeline.wyo.gov/Wellapi.Cfm?oops=ID21323&nAPINO=949001
“Southwestern Production Corp proposes to drill a well to 9026 TVD/ 11,118 MD to test the Frontier 1 B formation. If productive, casing will be run as well is drilled.”
“Sage-Grouse Population Area? No”
We are testing both Frontier 1 and Frontier 2 at the BFDU.
They are both approved.
They are both past ‘anticipated spud dates’.
They are both ‘confidential’.
Did we get the required casings and equipment? What is the current status?
Arthur will know. The JV partner will know. How soon before we know?
GLA