Member Info for LiveLongnProsper

Another reminder …
https://aacrjournals.org/cancerres/article/83/7_Supplement/583/721663
“Proteasome inhibitors are a first line of treatment for certain hematologic indications such as multiple myeloma.”
“AVA3996 has the potential to deliver elevated, effective levels of proteasome inhibitor directly to the solid tumor microenvironment while reducing systemic exposure and hence associated toxicities.”
“In addition, the data supports wider utility of the pre|CISION™ platform to target therapeutics to the tumor while reducing systemic dose-limiting toxicities.”
Note the document reference …
https://doi.org/10.1158/1538-7445.AM2023-583
“DOI NOT FOUND 10.1158/1538-7445.AM2023-583”
“This DOI cannot be found in the DOI System. Possible reasons are:
The DOI is incorrect in your source. Search for the item by name, title, or other metadata using a search engine.
The DOI was copied incorrectly. Check to see that the string includes all the characters before and after the slash and no sentence punctuation marks.
The DOI has not been activated yet. Please try again later, and report the problem if the error continues.”
Will this be ‘activated’ next week?
GLA

@Eazy, just to add …
April 6 - March Monthly Report (statutory document), first mention of JV in a monthly report.
“ Management continues to be focused on strategic processes for JV and Refinancing …”
GLA

More numbers to add up. This is why we need a Group Accountant. Not to mention Eur€ and USD$ to convert. More, bigger, numbers being a good thing.
GLA

That’s more like it. Very clear and sensible view from Tiburn.
Production increasing – weather, flaring, CC re-completions. gas gathering, etc.
Cash flow positive – paying debt interest, paying G&A / other Opex.
RBL and JV subject to ‘ongoing strategic processes’.
BFDU Horizontals to fund from above?
Senior debt to retire / re-finance from above?
Now then …
1bn barrels (low side?), 20% recovery (low side), RS will be updated.
Will this run out at (say) ~5000 barrels/day for the next (err?) 100 years?
Or will a ‘Major’ or ‘Supermajor’ take an interest?
GLA

Interesting choice of words – “strategic processes”.
First mention of the JV in a monthly report.
Re-financing mentioned in last few previous reports, in fact set as a Q1/2023 objective in the December 2022 report.
‘Strategic’, hmmm … Wonder how big a deal then?
GLA

@gadgie, thanks for this one below – added to my list …
Jong Sang Ryu, Ph.D., CEO and Chief Security Officer, April 12 | 10:45am | Dark Horse Consulting Ballroom, Gimhae, South Korea
https://meetingonthemed.com/company-presentations/

AVA3996 at AACR April 2023 (David Jones and Fiona McLaughlin), April 16th 1:30pm …
https://www.abstractsonline.com/pp8/#!/10828/presentation/2606

Alastair Smith, Avacta Chief Executive Officer, will provide a video presentation overview for investors examining the data presented in the poster. This will be available on 17th April at … https://avacta.com/investors/documents-presentations/

An investor webinar presentation by Alastair Smith, Chief Executive Officer and Tony Gardiner, Chief Financial Officer will take place at 11:00am BST on Tuesday, 25 April 2023.

William Bachovchin, PHD. Professor, Developmental, Molecular and Chemical Biology at Tufts University School of Medicine. Tumor Activated Prodrugs Utilizing Fibroblast Activation Protein (FAP), May 10, 3:30pm …
https://informaconnect.com/tides/speakers/william-bachovchin-phd/

ISCT May 30 to June 3 2023 …
AffyXell – “Data will be presented at International Society for Cell & Gene Therapy, May 2023 (AffyXell and Avacta)”.
*** Cannot yet see AffyXell here??? But Christina Coughlin (Avacta NED) is presenting.
https://www.isctglobal.org/isct2023/program/fullprogram
Christina Coughlin, MD, PhD. CytoImmune Therapeutics, Inc.
Friday June 2, 09:15-10:15, Tackling Challenges in Cell Therapy for Solid Tumors ,,,
https://connect-v3.jujama.com/Plugin/AgendaDetails?ConferenceId=FInsCV0Ihkg%3d&Tracks=dpiTpYFVuKE%3d&Date=kpyM17qhQdV%2fV3rRvTKUsYurUDQJGO3Z&ShowAllDetailsInList=GTSzrqvq8gE%3d&Session=GyZ2W%2fzN%2f3g%3d

Any more?
GLA

~3:12 "Any future partner ..."
Very clear, concise and confident interview.
GLA

Immense.
Investigator William D. Tap, Co-Investigators Sujana Movva.
GLA

@Tiburn, agree, focus should be ..
Increase production to become cash positive.
Bonds – cover short-term working capital / opex (inc. debt repayments) and fund immediate capex programme – gas gathering upgrade etc. plus CC re-completions
Do we wait for 3 CC re-completions before RBL to enable Reserves upgrade?
RBL – re-finance senior debt on more favourable terms (maybe further re-structure hedges?).
JV – at least finance BFDU horizontals (could negate RBL, could be much bigger deal?).
GLA

@shaa, like your thinking re secondary recovery. Will take a little time to check all the numbers over the weekend now they're more visible (i.e. Bonds / conversions, warrants, options, SD, etc.) and review valuation.
Plenty to look forward to in the next operational update, particularly the CC re-completions, gas pipeline upgrade and BFDU horizontals. While the first 2 are now funded, the latter may be dependent on the JV? Regarding CC, I particularly liked this statement on page 6 of the MD&A ..."The Company anticipates conversion of Frontier 1 prospective resources to contingent resources and ultimately reserves as additional producing wells come online." We have 6/7 relatively low cost re-completions at CC to go at.
Exciting times for COPL.
GLA

@shaa, thanks. Video a good reminder. Body language, as he mentions Mobil / Exxon, hint of smile, looks away to left ...
GLA

Good point re having 'worked with them'. I guess there will be some contact between co.'s in Wyoming (even just Converse), but it does focus the mind on Exxon. And then we have the whole CO2 storage opportunity. I guess I had 'written off' CNOOC due to the US encouraging the sale of Chinese assets? But still, as you say, an 'outsider'.
GLA

From the WOGC, see page 2 for the ‘big players’ in Wyoming ...
https://www.wsgs.wyo.gov/products/wsgs-2023-OG-summary.pdf
Namely – EOG, Continental, Devon, Contango, Merit, Anschutz, Anadarko (Occidental), et al.
(With Exxon doing a lot of gas.)
I recall AM saying (something like) the potential JV partner was a large ‘listed’ company. If so we can eliminate …
Continental now owned (~75%?) by the Hamm family.
Contango owned by Crescent Energy (managed by KKR).
Merit and Anschutz privately held.
So, my take on JV partner, one of – EOG, Devon, Occidental or Exxon.
(Might think again about Continental though).
GLA

Further to 3lp …
Comparison vs January (from my spreadsheet, so please check as required).
Improvers …
BFU 34-20V, 2950 +1988 on +10 days, flaring 14/11/22 and 14/03/23
BFU Fed 11-22V, 3343 +985 on +3 days, flaring 14/11/22 and 14/03/23
BFU 44-21V, 2385 +668 on same (26) days, flaring 14/11/22 and 14/03/23
BFU 32-27V, 2964 +598 on +2 days, flaring 14/11/22 and 14/03/23
BFU FED 32-23V, 881 +539 on +10 days, not flaring
BFU FED 11-28V, 818 +318 on -1 days, flaring 14/11/22 (not 14/03/23)
BFU 41-30V. 362 +289, on +15 days, not flaring
BFU Fed 14-30VF, 512 +210 on +16 days, not flaring
BFU FED 32-21V, 1928 +115 on -4 days, flaring 14/11/22 and 14/03/23
Could do better …
COLE CREEK 12-23, 45 -128 on -23 days (next re-completion?)
BFU 21-35-76 ST A SN 3H, 2620 -151 on -3 days, flaring 14/11/22 and 14/03/23
BFU 23-28V, 340 -207 on -6 days, not flaring
BFU Fed 41-20V, 558 -237 on -8 days, flaring 14/11/22 and 14/03/23
BFU 42-29V, 214 – 252 on -5 days, not flaring
FEDERAL 12-26, 1055 -278 on -3 days, flaring 14/11/22 and 14/03/23
COLE CREEK 31-17, 156 -311 on -23 days, not flaring
BFU 44-22V, 1604 – 340 on -4 days, flaring 14/11/22 and 14/03/23
COLE CREEK 5-22, 0 -343 on -7 days (another re-completion?)
BFU 22-27V, 1215 -358 on -2 days, flaring 14/11/22 (not 14/03/23)
BFU 23-27V, 3283 -754 on -2 days, flaring 14/11/22 (not 14/03/23)
Overall 107 days lost vs Jan, yet production up – very encouraging.
GLA

@shaa, just to develop the links ...
=Anadarko
Lookup Anadarko E&P Onshore LLC to see their locations next door to us …
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1HeE648NWO44EeCe8ROqhpWiNam72Tck&ll=42.99304256850198%2C-106.0182326455078&z=11
(County no. 9 is Converse).
The other big players in Wyoming can be seen here ...
https://www.wsgs.wyo.gov/products/wsgs-2023-OG-summary.pdf
Namely – EOG, Continental, Devon, etc. With Exxon doing a lot of gas.
GLA

Thanks for posting JT.
Courtesy Ophidian, slide 84 is relevant ..
https://twitter.com/Ophidian18/status/1641348993589432321/photo/1
AVA6000 delivering sufficient Dox be effective at Cohort 3 and 4 dosing levels (120 / 200 mg/M2)? But nothing specific about tumour shrinkage.
Is there an ‘ethical’ question here? Should the focus be on completing the necessary trials as swiftly as possible and enabling patient treatment to commence? Perhaps this may be best achieved by a larger (‘big pharma’) organisation than AVCT?
GLA

I suppose quite a few possibilities …
Still doing analysis of data (e.g. ‘Leaving Group’) from Cohort 3 or 4?
(Maybe patients in Cohort 3 / 4 still being treated, should not directly impact?)
Data analysis needed to establish dosing level for Cohorts 5 and 6?
Big increase in dosing levels, Cohort 5 /6 in parallel? So …
Trial Protocol change, requires Regulatory approval?
Still recruiting?
Establishing US sites?
Others?
GLA

Updated today ...
https://avacta.com/investors/key-information/
Current as at 24th March 2023.
Just weekend maintenance, or ...?
GLA

@shaa, ‘regarding future SP’.
My take (so health warning) on our numbers – rounded, please check and correct as necessary.
Three scenarios …
1. As is (SP = 5.2p)
Enterprise Value (EV) = Mcap + Debt – Cash (one estimate of co. acquisition value).
EV = Mcap ~$22m (@£=$1.20),+ Bond debt (181 x $200k =) ~£36m = Senior debt ~$42m (?) – Cash ~$10m (assume some already committed) = ~$90m.
So will we be acquired for ~$90m? Hope not,
2. Reserve valuation – Outstanding Bonds not converted.
RS current Reserves valuation, which accounts for future costs over 10 years for field development (capex), etc., and future oil production, prices, taxes, etc., and gives, as at July 2022, a 2P Reserves valuation of $15.70 on 31.349m boe = $492m (NPV10).
So if this represents the EV (?), to get the Mcap then we subtract the debt (~$78m), add the cash ($10m) = $424m = £353m, with ~450m shares (inc. ~130m Warrants and Options) = ~78p/share.
3. On the value of our Resources – Outstanding Bonds converted, giving (say) total shares (inc. Warrants and Options) ~1200m.
We have a (conservative) ~1bn barrels @ 20% recovery= 200m barrels @ $6 = $1.2bn = ~£1bn / ~1200m shares = ~83p/share (probably reduce a bit for Senior debt).
Just a few thoughts for discussion.
GLA

Expecting to hear about all of the below (and more?) in update next week ..?
How we will be using the money raised from recent Bonds (i.e. wisely).
How we will cut costs quickly as committed.
That we will ensure sufficient cash in bank for minimum balance and ongoing debt interest payments.
Plan to complete the pipework / storage upgrades to increase production from existing wells.
Plan for any other outstanding field remediation / upgrade work required for existing wells.
Progress with the CC re-completions. 2 approved so far, increase production, increase Reserves.
When we expect to become ‘net cash positive’ through production increases.
The updated RS report – increased Reserves, increased overall Resources, increased Recovery.
Status of RBL discussions for (at least) the senior debt.
Status of JV discussions for (at least) the BFDU ‘discovery’, to significantly increase production from new capex.
Plan to fund the BFDU ‘horizontals’, 2 approved so far, increase production, increase Reserves
Plan to sort out ‘Hedges’ and ‘Swaps’. Exit gas hedge? Longer-term oil sales hedge?
Expectation of value returned to shareholders.
Others?
Let’s see how many ‘ticks’ in the above boxes?
GLA