Member Info for LiveLongnProsper

4) …

Let’s just speculate that one of the parties unsuccessful in being ‘chosen’ by AM really wants the business. So, how about a takeout …?

1bn barrels (conservative), 20% recovery (conservative) = 200m barrels @ $6 (oil in ground) = $1.2bn = (say) ~£900m. Subtract debt at the time, divide by number of shares in issue at the time. Answer – considerably more than 2p.

(Wild speculation or 'wishful thinking', probably both.)

GLA

@SteveV, I think this statement from the company might help …

“As previously disclosed the oil discovery is a combined structural-stratigraphic trap In the Dakota, Frontier 2 and Frontier 1 Formations extending from the Cole Creek anticline at the Company’s 100% WI operated Cole Creek Unit (“CCU”) to the 85% WI operated Barron Flats Federal (Deep) Unit (“BFFDU”).”

Looking forward to a full update on the scale of resources from RS / COPL / JV partner.

GLA

CC production June 2023 = 2367 from 18 wells, 5 producing.

BFU production June 2023 = 34804 from 33 wells, 30 producing.

(709 from FEDERAL 12-26 gives the 37880 June total).

What am getting at …?

We have BFU production, and BFU production that will increase substantially with GGS etc.

We will therefore soon be cash positive (independent of any JV deal)..

The JV partner must be very, very confident of the Resource / Reserves / Production potential of CC.

‘Alles ist gut’.

GLA

Not entirely sure what to make of this article on cancer drug shortages, but possibly some useful background reading – various threads to follow. Primarily Carboplatin and Cisplatin – both of which, I think, can be given in conjunction with Doxorubicin …

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/20/health/drug-shortage-cancer-research/index.html

Following the link to the “at least 25 [cancer drugs] now in shortage”, and searching on Doxorubicin (some suppliers with shortages) …

https://www.ashp.org/drug-shortages/current-shortages/drug-shortage-detail.aspx?id=108

Interesting to see the ‘players’, for example – Pfizer, Hikma, Fresenius Kabi, Teva, et al.

GLA

US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast as of July 11 (~$80 through 2024) …

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/index.php

“Crude oil prices. We forecast that the Brent crude oil spot price will average $78 per barrel (b) in July. Crude oil prices gradually increase throughout our forecast, reaching about $80/b in 4Q23 and averaging about $84/b in 2024 because we expect that global oil inventories will decline over the next five quarters.”

(Note – forecast is for Brent, so subtract ~$4 for WTI).

Don’t think there are many better places to have (large amounts of) oil than Wyoming, USA.

GLA

As requested ..!

A few of the larger producing wells down a bit for June – if anyone can make a direct connection to ‘field improvement’ works of one kind or another this would be interesting.

Hopefully these ones being ‘sorted’ …

BFU 34-20V 4895, -850 on May

BFU 44-21V 1972, -613 on May

BFU Fed 11-22V 3279, -505 on May

BFU 44-22V 1964, -421 on May

Above 4 subject to flaring from both 14/11/22 and 14/03/23.

BFU 22-27V 280, -396 on May, 12 fewer days

BFU FEDERAL 41-34H 400, -339 on May

BFU 23-27V 2025, -314 on May

Another -2051 lost over 19 wells.

Nothing much on CC recompletions so far …

COLE CREEK 4-27 468, -164 on May, 3 more days

COLE CREEK 11-27 10, +5 on 16 fewer days

COLE CREEK 12-23 no activity.

A couple of highlights …

BFU 21-35-76 ST A SN 3H 2371, +775 on May, 4 more days

BFU 23-28V 533, +381 on May

Another +1314 increase over 9 wells.

Clearly huge latent capacity to unlock with GGS upgrade and other field improvements. Given the extent of the ongoing work programme maintaining June production at only 41/day less than May has got to be encouraging.

GLA

4.95m another SINT trade. I suppose it's possible that the same client of the 'Systematic Internaliser' could buy back later? That would be a little odd of course. Does this help keep the VWAP low? Who knows?

GLA

2023-07-13T08:48:56.000 GBX 1.85 5000000 92500 Off-Book SINT P ECHO

Spread 1.90-2.00

2023-07-13T14:06:05.000 GBX 1.85 5000000 92500 Off-Book SINT P ECHO

Spread 1.90-1.95

SINT trades again – ‘Systematic Internaliser’ matching client orders. Wonder who the 'clients' are?

Both at price seemingly below spread at time. Odd?

Seems to have ‘set the tone’ in the morning and then again after lunch? Coincidence no doubt.

Keeps the VWAP down? Coincidence no doubt.

Wonder if more Bond / Bond payment shares will be issued soon? Would be a coincidence.

Some might think that [something’s not quite right], I couldn’t possibly comment.

GLA

Half of today’s volume through SINT (‘Systematic Internaliser’) trades. So market ‘made’ between clients of some entity that can trade in this way ...

2023-07-11T09:55:52.000 GBX 2.025 5000000 101250 Off-Book SINT P ECHO

2023-07-11T08:31:20.000 GBX 2 5000000 100000 Off-Book SINT P ECHO

2023-07-11T08:31:20.000 GBX 1.95 5000000 97500 Off-Book SINT P ECHO

If one were to be somewhat cynical one might suspect that this could (not deliberately of course), just possibly, help keep the VWAP down? Does anyone benefit from this? Did someone once mention how the price of Bond ‘payment’ shares are calculated? I’m sure that’s not relevant of course. Just a bit odd though?

Some might think that [something’s not quite right], I couldn’t possibly comment.

GLA

5m trades yesterday and today (so far) are ECHO/SINT trades. So ‘Systematic Internaliser’ (II etc.) determining price across client accounts.

11.07.23 08:31:20 1.95 GBX 5,000,000 97,500.00 Off-Book P ECHO SINT

11.07.23 08:31:20 2.00 GBX 5,000,000 100,000.00 Off-Book P ECHO SINT

Above from londonstockechange.com (second trade posted ~50 min later) – one client to another for £2.5k commission? Who knows?

GLA

Private messages apart, I think the last update was ...

RNS 05 June 2023 - Operations and Production Update

The initial phase of the second Cole Creek Unit ("CCU") recompletion for Frontier 1 oil production has been completed;

The well has been perforated with oil inflow observed on perforation. The Company is evaluating options for stimulation of the perforations, and the timing of these, in conjunction with its JV discussions.

No mention in last 2 monthly reports and todays RNS.

'Tight ship''.

GLA

Optimers which, like Affimers, are antibody mimetics but based on RNA/DNA, as opposed to Affimers which are based on human stefin.

At ~£3m and seemingly in some difficulty, might be worth acquiring for the Optimer platform?

Don’t think Aptamers have patent protection, maybe Optimers do?

Also I think management own a controlling interest in APT.

Just for info, no doubt our folks are well aware of what’s going on there and if any synergies.

GLA

@Shouston, Last trade a TNCP so spread at time misleading. The 17m trade was also a TNCP, so not obvious if buy or sell.

GLA

May 2023 summary

Big Improvers …

BFU 34-20V 5745 up a massive 2635 on a full 31 days (April 15 – Pumping / Flowing). Biggest producing well by far.

BFU Fed 11-22V 3784 up 1403 on 30 days (April 18). 2nd biggest producing well.

BFU FED 32-21V 2467 up 983 on 30 days (April 19). 5th biggest producing well.

BFU 44-21V 2585 up 905 on 29 days (April 25 – Pumping / Flowing). 4th biggest producing well.

COLE CREEK 4-27 632 up 515 on 23 days (Apr 4 – Re-completion).

COLE CREEK 11-22 942 up 417 on 23 days (Apr 11 – Re-completion ???).

Completing the top 5, running at a good pace …

3rd BFU 32-27V 3461.

Needing some extra coaching …

BFU 21-35-76 ST A SN 3H 1596 down -568 on -4 days.

BFU Fed 41-20V 228 down -455 on -6 days.

COLE CREEK 11-27 5 (only) down -220 on only 9 days (Re-completion, lot less water)

~5 more lost 100-300

Looks like we’re turning the corner.

Pumping / Flowing seems to be working.

Would like a proper update on re-completions.

Let’s see another improvement in June – maybe Art will tell us soon.

GGS install should reveal just how constrained productions has been.

GLA

@Unnd, OK thanks. So ‘laying it out’, and appreciating only a very very rough ‘guesstimate’ …

~175 bond payments @ ~£140k = ~£24.5m, if converted @ 1.95p = ~1256.4m new shares.

So current shares = 547.9m plus (from my earlier post) remaining bond conversion shares = ~320.7m, gives a total of around ~2125m shares.

If I substitute 2.2bn (vs 2bn) into your earlier calculations based on OIP of £652m, then it’s around ~29p.

Fully recognise the huge uncertainties though.

GLA

(Please DYOR and calculations).

@Edgein, @Unnd – your calculations are enormously helpful. Thank you (so far!).

So 18 bonds (9 each 2027/8), $3.6m principal converted to 44.1m shares @ USD$0.0817.

OK with that …

Remaining bonds = 131 @USD$0.2m = $26.2m @ USD$0.0817 = 320.7m additional shares.

Now the ‘tricky’ one, the conversion payments remaining on converted / to be converted bonds. If you would be good enough to lay out the arithmetic for this then we get a handle on the likely total shares.

Yes, I know this is going to be sp dependent, but just state some assumptions on the VWAP.

Then we can have a go at a valuation based on Reserves / Resources / Recovery etc.

GLA

(ps – for me, the immediate priority is production, so we can achieve net positive cash)

Did Sir Al just say 'no more M&A for the foreseeable ...'?

Should put a stop to some of the recent attempts at funding 'scares'.

GLA

From londonstockexchange.com, read from the bottom up.

27.06.23 13:04:00 2.00 GBX 500,000 10,000.00 Off-Book P XLON XLON

27.06.23 16:06:15 2.26 GBX 100,000 2,255.00 Off-Book P XLON XLON

27.06.23 16:06:14 2.26 GBX 100,000 2,255.00 Off-Book P XLON XLON

27.06.23 11:47:00 2.10 GBX 1,500,000 31,500.00 Off-Book P XLON XLON

27.06.23 11:01:00 2.15 GBX 1,500,000 32,250.00 Off-Book P XLON XLON

27.06.23 09:48:00 2.20 GBX 2,000,000 44,000.00 Off-Book P XLON XLON

27.06.23 16:04:51 2.34 GBX 42,564 996.00 Off-Book P XLON XLON

You might almost think that a few late posted trades (with a declining price) could possibly, maybe, have an effect on upward movement. No doubt just a coincidence …

Anyway back to fundamentals, let’s get the GGS upgrade done – as per man with yellow car.

GLA

27.06.23 10:07:00 2.25 GBX 19,348,350 435,337.88 Off-Book P ECHO XOFF

Slightly more interesting (?) in that this trade went through Tradecho exchange (ECHO / XOFF).

As previously noted, update on fundamentals needed – production, GGS, re-completions, flowing to pumping flowing, resource updates, JV, RB, etc.

GLA

Thanks dougb189 and occams.

Particularly like the 92% long on IG.

Also encouraged by Phoenix1234 post earlier.

GLA