Member Info for Lindon

Ha ha! It certainly shows up the appeal of day trading in small volume stocks, not something I've ever been interested in before. Given this sp level tho plus Liberum's reiteration (I note that N+1 Singer have reiterated 'neutral') I'm wondering if some of the big guys might be tempted again!

Loving this market... one small trade either way & the pendulum swings accordingly!

Hi budy... sorry didnt notice ur previous posts. Absolutely agree with you & think most others should too, VERY sound advice. Ive been accumalating for nearly 5 years, i started getting out before the worst a few days ago. The bottom may not yet have been seen & agree with what you say about the 350 level. But this stock trades around 45 times forecast earnings... it's not exactly cheap... so at this level i consider it a very strong buy. I LOVE bargains! Liberum had their cosy conflab with Carclo after the results yesterday & we now know their verdict as a result of that. At this sp level I'm not waiting for the bottom... I'm already slowly getting back in to make the most of the forthcoming bounce. life is for living I'm personaly happy with the risk. Good luck to all.

Liberum have issued an update, they are maintaing their BUY recommendation AND a £5 price target! Fill ur boots!

Yer mate... way it's going think your right, I'm stopped out now so feeling kinda rosy but poised to go in all the way again when sentiment changes. N+1 Singer giving a full year £6.6m adjusted profit. (eps 7.5) up from around £3.4m (article from IC)

Whilst holding to 2014 forecast Liberum have deemed it prudent to take a more conservative view for 2015 due to uncertainties apparent for Atmel sales next year. Previously £20m for Carclo, now saying £10-16m. No news on eps yet. Obviously any PO's that might be gained will change that landscape. I feel the downgrade could have been much worse & this is not that bad. Hopefully the market will take the same view & maintain the support above 330p.

Cheers buddy, all good & hope ur2. I believe the Carclo/analyst meet was due this morning so probably just about over. Would love to be a fly on the wall & its a shame we don't get to get public webcast as in the states! Yep... The results were good... IMO very good on a period for period basis... A good profit jump by any definition. Seems the initial knee jerk is over at the moment with the downward trajectory halted at a higher level than I thought it might... IMO that portends well for the near future.... but much now depends on those analyst. Hopefully the the otherwise good results may give them sufficient reason to hold fire. GLA.

That's what Carclo think, now we have to wait & see what the analysts think. It's difficult to see that they have much to go on other than 'capacity investment'... downgrading is a more likely possibility.

Broadly speaking the results are fine, mainly as expected & a reiteration of what came out a few weeks ago. The market disappointment will come from the fact that film sales & cit revenue to date have only been for machinery commissioning & not from an Atmel client. It seems that all the talk of numerous design wins from several tier one OEM's have so far only resulted in one potential PO which, for an unknown reason has been delayed. Market sentiment remains to be seen... but the possibility that the virtual zero take up of XSense so far COULD continue during the second half... may see a downward trajectory to a new support level for the time being. It therefor remains a good short.

Friday's volumes actually finished at just under 300,000. Strange. interim results due on Tuesday 19th. Much depends on what they show & given ATML's guidance withdrawal & module makers seemingly determined to use their own mesh rather than an outsiders (which is probably the main reason for lack of take up) it's going to be difficult if the results are only 'in line'... for Liberum to hold to forecast. I'm expecting 340p to be tested before then & if the results ARE only 'in line' then its gonna be squeaky bum time for a lot of people after that. Maybe those who can't afford to risk riding the price down should at least consider their positions. It COULD go either way including a VERY long way south. However (ONLY my opinion) ... I believe any downward tank will be relatively short lived.

Thanx Stuki, good stuff fella. Confirms we def in need of a quick breakout, only a PO is gonna do that. Very puzzled about the volumes on Friday tho... in excess of 240,000 is most unusual for CAR.

booboodog... whilst I agree that news of a definitive PO from a major will have an undoubted & very welcome affect on the sp I don't agree that it will be all that big a tick up. It is ONLY my opinion of course... but I personally believe it will take several large volume PO's from the majors OR a 'preferred partner' status from a major to have the large effect that is hoped for. My reason for that thinking is due to my belief (right or wrong) that there is a least one large PO already built into the current share price levels. I certainly wouldn't advocate any of the faithful to bail out at the moment... I think that would be crazy... but I also think folk should be prepared to be realistic. Yes... Carclo is not a one trick pony... but the other tricks don't, at the moment, add up to add to anything like the current share price.

stockpickfree... I think your right about there not being much short interest at the moment... BlackRock are 2% short but not much else out there. My concern is that could well change given ATML's withdrawal of guidance & now stating that they are NOT saying they will do $100m in 2014 & the pe forecasts now looking not achievable due to a whole host of reasons, i.e. touch solution prices in general are dropping into a pit & a plethora of competition in evidence in recent months... more & more its looking like margins are going to a lot smaller than those originally envisaged. In view of the fact that XSense was fully qualified over 3 months ago & ATMEL reporting all year that they have been working closely with several tier one OEM's & had acquired numerous design wins... only got one order which has now been delayed, & now withdrawing guidance... If I was short minded I would be looking at this as one of the best short plays around at todays closing price. I completely agree with your attitude to risk. I note unusually high trading volumes today... I wonder why.

UNXL 3Q results & earnings call due later today. Meanwhile SA report that UNXL have announced a PO win from their OEM partner (long rumoured to be Dell) for InTouch Sensors Powered By Kodak, previously named Uni-Boss.

It's good to see the sp finding support above 350p. The removal of the 'froth' that built up for no reason whatsoever after the Berlin show is no bad thing. The removal of ATML guidance in the their last earnings call & the fact that they were not willing to state that they have won any PO 's but the one they did have has been delayed... (to say they are shipping to multiple customers is ambiguous & not good enough & the market has recognised that) plus the strong possibility that eps will come in at a reduction from forecasts sets a more sensible & relistic level from any Carclo 'bounce' that might happen. But no one should be any doubt that there is STILL a very high XSense premium built into the sp. the longer the delay in announcing that a definitive PO has been signed the more likely that there will be further falls in the sp.

booboodog... yes, as a longtime accumulator of CAR shares, that's the side of the story I believe in. But the unwary need to realise there are 2 sides to every story & the short's side IS very compelling for the reasons i have mentioned... & there are many others too. Why for instance did Asus not follow up the MeMoPad supposedly which has XSense with their next devises... MEMoPad HD for one... If it was any good? Obviously the £1.4m revenue reported by CAR is from those 'unwinding' sales... but the way CAR say it you could believe its 'new' income. So I'm saying don't read too much into "shipping to multiple customers" either... It may not actually mean what you hope it might mean. I find it very strange that they put in that way especially as many hours of thought go into drafting company statements! The prepayment left just over £6m deferred revenue to be accounted for in this financial year... only £1.4m since last spring isn't much to write home about! The point is... we are still in POTENTIAL mode... there is still no PROOF that copper mesh actually works & it pays to be very wary of how companies explain things. Silver nanowire touch sensors are now on shelf in the shape of a Lenovo 20 inch all in one (AIO) called 'FLEX' so the competition is now ahead! I believe CAR is still a strong buy around £3.50 for those who haven't bought into it yet but I've moved my stop loss up from £3.20 to £3.40. as a result of the language used in the earnings call & what I'm suspicious MAY have been... classic company double speak!! I believe all things considered... CAR sp to STILL be expensive at the current level even after the recent downward dip, which I'm not surprised at... I think it could fall still further if nothing heard VERY soon!

Playing the devils advocate... CAR is an excellent short play! How much of the £1.4m revenue is due to the unwinding of the Asus prepayment... all of it maybe? Have ANY new orders been recieved since being validated 3 months ago?Also notice the change in ATML 'language' about the 2014 $100m revenue. They now say that its not necessarily going to happen but they are investing capital in the HOPE that it might. They also say they are shipping to multiple customers for revenue... what does that mean exactly? They don't say they have received any new PO's. Why did the OEM have to reschedule... is it a problem with the sensor design??! I think the shorts will be more than happy for a while longer yet. Also of course Atmel is a very diversified company... many other factors impact on their sp which have nothing to do with XSense.

ATML (closed 9.1% up) upgraded to outperform by Wedbush... maybe Liberum will do the same for CAR!

booboodog... enjoy the walk with the dog! You hit the nail on the head. £1.4m of revenue absolutly most of it froom XSense since validation, already raked in. Shipping to multiple customers for revenue says everything there is to say. Carclo are NOW earning big time! This earnings call was VERY positive. ATML up over 12% since opening... given all the news about the rest of ATML's buisness was already out there with a whole raft of positive announcements over the last few days, which had NO effect on their sp.... this ATML bounce is entirly down to the positives about XSense. CAR will almost certainly bounce back like that even without any quick short term news. Your absolutely correct... there truly was no bad news... & ATMEL are now investing capital for increased ramping. It doesn't get more positive than that!

ATML investors obviously see the positives... a nice big bounce on opening today!