Member Info for Lindon

I'm not sure what to make of Atmel. By Carclo standards, yes, they are a huge multi billion dollar company. But pretty small compared to others in the microcontrollor business. Their MaxT touch controller is rated as leading the field at the moment & they have had some huge wins for it. Apart from the XSense TS they seem to be pulling a fair amount of business in across a whole range of products & quite heavily excited about the so called Internet of things. They also seem to have upped all their marketing efforts recently. I get the impression from some Atmel investors that XSense is just seen as being a bit of icing & a cherry on top of on the Atmel cake when it eventually gains traction. Unlike Carclo investors, Atmel ones just don't see XSense as being the be all & end of all of the universe! It's this seemingly general difference between them 'n' us that I credit being the reason for the different trajectories in the SP's. I'm staying in Carclo, probably due to me also only seeing XSense as that cherry on the top, I see longer term value in the company. Though obviously very disappointed Atmel isn't on the way to the stars yet & all the uncertainty that will seemingly now continue, as long as it gets going at some stage it will be fine by me. My main concern is the financial effects & implications for the rest of the business after all the expense of the last couple of years... if XSense turns out to be a complete damp squid. I certainly hope there WILL be a place for XSense in the TS market but I can't see it being a big one for Atmel now... however it doesn't have to be that big to make a difference to Carclo. A couple of years of reasonably steady revenues for CIT will do fine as far as I'm concerned. My view is If CIT gets ANY revenues then that will provide the impetus for growth in other areas of the company sooner rather than later.

Hottentot, thank you! No worries though. My stance is to simply to not respond to someone who is presumptuous, arrogant & full of his own self importance'. I wont be responding directly to any of his post & hopefully he will soon fund off to his funds!

Sorry... Hate touch screens! .... The Americans don't seem to interpretate things in the same way as the UK investors do. They are quite prepared for XSense to only start gaining real traction later in the year. They are not in the least bit worried & every confidence things are fine at Colorado Springs. Maybe being as they are Americans listening to American CEO's .... they are better at understanding & getting a more realistic perceptions of American company 'speak than we are!

Something I HAVE consistently noticed when talking to some of the Atmel longs in America is that they have slightly different view of XSense to us lot. They view Carclo's RNS as something rather minor, of no great importance & that they didn't learn anything particularly new. It's something I've noticed before.... in their view XSense always was going to be a rather 'slow roll out' & they are a bit puzzled why we in the UK are overly concerned. The only explanation I can think of is that the intrpratate

Hope I'm wrong, there is more than a VERY good chance I am wildly off beam & I've just got an over active imagination.... or a nasty suspicious mind! It should also be born in mind that the timing may also be something they couldn't avoid in order to comply with corporate disclosure rules concerning the release of any material info to shareholders as soon as its known, so the choice of timing may not have been theirs to make. Even if I AM correct & the reasons for the slow ramp & pricing pressures ARE due to production- yield issues... then that also raises the possibility that the problems ARE resolvable & that's what they are working on... & that's why they see XSense rolling out later on in the year. Seen in that light... not so bad after all! We WILL know when we know... until then its ALL only vague possibilities.

Tula... Last autumn Carclo won the right to have the litigation case heard in the English high court... if they choose to proceed with the case, Carclo were awarded legal cost for defending UNXL's claims that a 2010 NDA stated that any litigation should be heard in Texas. Carlo wre able to prove that UNXl themselves terminated the 2010 NDA before it even got off the ground, it was terminated by UNXL with an effective date given as 21/10/2010. It didnt exist. There has been no indication as yet that Carclo wish to proceed & continue with their claims.

We will only know when we know. That's true! The more I know the less I know... dunno who said that bit! Someone recently said "I try not to know much in case I think I know something" very wise words! With all that in mind, these are purely my own opinions & thoughts.on the reasons behind the TIMING of the profit warning. Carclo have issued a profit warning, only 3 weeks ahead of Atmel's 4Q results & analysts conference call. My question is WHY? VERY recent statements from Atmel have indicated they anticipated strong ramping up during that 4Q/13 & expectations of further strong ramping up quarter on quarter throughout 2014. To that end they have capexed to provide capacity for a potential $100m in XSense revenue for 2014. They openly stated that did NOT mean that was what they WOULD get. Good... Open & honest! The 1Q is ALWAYS a quiet time in the design cycle, its well known & would have been taken into account & yet Carclo said XSense would be launched in a range of tier one devices before the end of this financial year. I've come to the conclusion therefore that we MAY not yet have heard all the bad news. I think the TIMING of the RNS is a damage limitation exercise & a warning that red flags are flying for XSense. Carclo have reported a slower than anticipated ramp up on the XSense production programmes. They have NOT said WHY! They have alluded to pricing pressures caused by the competition but say they still expect to get further devise wins in the 1st half of 2014. I'm not going to bother asking what's going to change between now & then! I'm questioning the reasons for slower than anticipated ramp up NOW... . IMO only, Atmel have got unresolved production problems! In other words they are getting poor yields from the printing process. I believe it is THAT which is causing OR contributing to the competitive pricing pressures Carclo admit to & they CAN'T ramp up. Carclo Can ONLY report a slow ramp up, it is Atmel who HAVE to report if they have production line issues. It is possible that is what has yet to be divulged... & this timing is a damage limitation exercise ahead of that divulgence. There were unsubstantiated reports last week that Atmel have shipped 2 loads of new equipment into the XSense building at the Colorado Springs. It IS possible that this is Automated testing equipment, (which sits in the photlitho print machines) & is being installed as an effort to resolve any production/yield issues they may have. For sure its not because they have run out of capacity to produce!!!! We will only know when we know... & I know nuffin' Just some thoughts.

Yep, agree. A cat has to be dead before it bounces.

Hi gocarclo... I'm still along term believer, I probably have a different perspective to more recent Carclo investors due to being in for many years. When I climbed aboard XSense was just a twinkle in the eye. So were tablets! Doesn't mitigate my disappoint tho! The irony for me is i was half expecting a knee jerk downward after the 4Q call because I was convinced it would have come to soon for any real traction to have been reported, the disappointment of a 'more of the same' report amid all the high expectations from most that it would be news we have been waiting for, would not have been well received... & I was prepared for that. This warning tho is certainly a shock. I STILL don't understand the timing of it. I'm VERY suspicious of that, it makes no sense to me. Why not wait till the 5th. There again, Carclo MAYBE shoving & pushing Atmel to come clean, if so it means THEY ain't very happy chappies with Atmel! To mind my mind.... as a believer in the integrity of the Carclo management team.... all power to their elbow! BIG mistake in my opinion of giving a microcontrollor comany total control on what happens in touch sensor market. I always believed Carclo are a long term hold but not for XSense. Even if it ever does take off I can't see it lasting as a touch solution for much more than a couple of years. Not because of recent competitors but because touch grid technology with any kind of metal isn't the future IMO. Also there are far superior touch technolgies like Graphene waiting in the wings which, if they ever get the price down, will rule the world for several years. But I think the future, several years away... will be gesture controll, not touch. But that's just my thoughts. I know nothing. The real dissapointment is Carclo only need 2% of market share for a couple of years to be transformed, then the rest of the buisness will come to the fore, that doesn't appear to be going to happen unles something gets pulled out the hat pretty soon. The slower than expected ramp up on the XSense production programmes which they put the problems down to, indicates to me that they STILL have unresolved production/waste/yield issues & it is THOSE issues which are the MAIN reasons for them not being able to overcome the competative pricing pressures. There was a report last week that Atmel shipped in a load more equipment into their XSense building... who knows, it maybe an effort to overcome production issues. But I dunno... just trying to get a grip on the failed ramp up. If I'm right then we should get to know on the 5th. There is no doubt IMO... that answers to the reasons for slow ramp up after their Quater on Quater ramping up (not only in the 4Q but throughout 2014) statements.. are going to be demanded by the analysts. Analysts are going to want to know what's going to happen to all that $100m capacity they have spent so much on. So do I!!!! I don't think the usual 'hype' is going to be acceptable on this

A link to a wee bit of Carclo history, old but goody piece of info; http://www.customer-insight.co.uk/article/826

Fair do's buddy, no problem, we all have different investment styles. Your correct about other small companies & them not having ANY earnings but a similar sp. Thats why Carclo is a buy IMO. The sp is just reflecting intense disappointment & with such a tightly held stock its understandable. I think it'll be back around 250 by the end March when the dust settles & folk start looking forward again. Depends on what Atmel come up with on the 5thFeb tho!

I posted the link Monday last week also see rivaldo on Tuesday post next to mine. I must admit tho, although I don't mind helping... I don't understand how anyone can invest in a company they seem to nothing about! Do you do any research or dd or just go with the flow!!!? :) just wondering!

I also wonder if Carclo investors have really appreciated the implications of the recent good news about the launch of GyroHalor which TP manufacture & was a joint development project with VEC. This is a generic replacement for an £5 to 8 BILLION per yr product.... GSK's Advair inhaler. reckoned to be responsible for around 25% of GSK'a global revenues. GyroHaylor has now got European approval in several countries, several others imminently now expected & launched on the market last week in Denmark. VEC have also appointed an unnamed marketing partner to pursue approval in the states. TP are in the throws of completing doubling their production capacity in the states... pretty obvious why!

You pays your dosh & you makes your choice. IMO only...the sell off is more a combination of the timing than anything else... hopes of being right on the brink of PO 's being recieved Atmel sp reaching new 18 month highs & thoughts of great positive vibes coming out of the 4Q call on the 5th Feb... the profit warning & delay in anything happening in the very short term has had worse effect on sentiment than if it had appeared a few weeks ago. Yes I think the sell off has been overdone, the fundementals, the superb 1st half earnings, 50% yr on yr increase.. even higher 2nd half earnings expected... & the fact that the rest of the company are going great guns has been ignored. Understandable though, the focus is on XSense. A report from advfn says Singer were making large bids yesterday, 5* normal size Liberum the same today, these are company brokers so expected to be involved in huge buys & sells... the poster gets the sense that we won't be seeing any inst reports of sales anytime soon!

The £1.3m revenue from CIT in the 1st half was reported as film sale to Atmel for machine commissioning purposes. Validation/qualification, although envisaged as being done & dusted in Atmel's 1Q/13 wasn't ultimately achieved until late August. Although the pre-validation screens were said to be sub 5 micron lines, during the delay they reckon to have reduced the line thickness to a level reported it as being unrecognisable to the sub 5. That was the upside. The downside of late qualification meant they missed out on the normal autumn & pre-xmas selling season device upgrades cycle, apart from HP Omni 10 tablet, which started global roll out just before Xmas. Consequently Carclo are around 9 months behind what was expected. The Omni 10 tablet appears, from many early adopter reports, to be of a superb quality, with many preferring the display screen to their iPads. So there appears to be nothing wrong with the product itself. What price Atmel charged HP for it...is open to conjecture though! The problem with giving another company an exclusive agreement is they lose control of all the proceedings not only on rolling out but WHO they roll out too! Carclo are now reliant on XSense only being available to Atmel's customers... IMO only, that Atmel (who are essntially a microcontrollor company) agreement... wasn't a good move, but the appeal of them already having tier one customers on tap is understandable. In the meantime ITO prices have more than halved from over $4 per diagonal inch to $2, maybe now even less. Atmel reported they could do a 10 inch screen for $10 = $1 per diagonal inch. The actual price will depend on the yields they are achieving. Also silver mesh & nanowire seems to have gained alot of traction, although more expensive & lower quality, it gained an advantage last year due to XSense qualification delays. the hope is that XSense can now recover lost ground. .In order to completely disrupt the known market XSense HAS to be a VERY compelling product both on quality AND on price. The quality appears to be there, HP are the biggest manufacturer in the world, their name is synomous with quality... but its the price war that appears to be being fought at the moment. IMO XSense HAS caused disruption... everybody else is fighting back! May the best man win!!!

At the risk of anyone again being accused of being one of the ladies with wet knickers or an obvious kid by the arrogant sleazball & admidst the disappointment of the unexpected profit warning... it would be good to see some thoughts on where folk see XSense going from here. Obviously there will be ones who see this as a great long at the moment & some will still see some room for a short play... in fact given the present market sentiments I can still see this having some room for further falls in the short term. Many have alluded to the defensive properies that Carclo bring to table due to the rest of the business, even though only a tiny company... the fact that its not a one trick pony has come to fore. We didnt want it too but its something to be greatful for... & a reason to believe most of the damage has probably already been done.... they are not about to bring in the receivers just yet! The rest had superb 1st half increases in revenue & the 2nd has the potential to be far better given this is the time of year when most of it pours in. CIT got £1.4 m from XSense machine commissioning so I'm expecting at least double that from actual film sales for production.... even if Atmel are not using all that was shipped to them! But where does XSense go from here? My thoughts are... we are now in the quiet period of the design cycle. Historicly there is not much visible action from the OEM's at this time of the year. They are usually gearing up for the next USA school year selling season & the aftermath of the Chinese Lunar holiday... the Omni 10 release was unusual just before Xmas, even that was outside of the normal design cycle. Carclo missed the normal Autumn cycle due to the late qualification. Carclo say the warning was due to "slower than anticipated ramp up in the production programmes on which XSense is being used" who will believe what they say now is open to conjecture, but if what they said is true then those 'programmes' at least mean designs are still being worked on with the OEM's. I think we can only hope that Atmel have a few more positives to add about those 'programmes' on the 5th Feb... plus MAYBE another RNS from Carclo afterwards. I am however suspicious of the timing of this warning. Why now? Why not wait till the earnings call? The possibility exist that its a damage limitation exercise ahead of the 4Q call. Another reason might be pressure applied by Liberium.... they sure got their new guidance statement issued rather quickly!! We shall see. GL to all.

LOL!!!

commercia... well said!... but their is fact an ignore option... the ultimate one... ZERO response from anybody! :)

stockpickfree.. I entirely agree with you. The RNS didn't actually come out with anything we didnt already know.The Omni 10 is on the shelves & screens are continuing to be produced for it. Atmel are also working on other programms. Carclo will have got paid & will continue to get paid for the film they ship to Atmel. What Atmel then do with it is up to them. The downside is that it appears their have been no other definite PO's as yet & this is a profits warning. The DANGER is that XSense will fail to get ANY further market share. There is around £20m to be written off plus costs if that happens... meaning a rights issue or carrying it as debt. That is the nature of the beast with any new tech stock, but as I keep saying we are only in the very early days of the birthing. We are only 6 months in!

gocarclo... I think this is the Liberium guidance Carclo has issued an IMS highlighting a weaker than expected outlook for CIT, both for H2'FY14 as well as potentially for FY15. As a result we have cut our CIT sales forecast for FY14 by 21% and for FY15 by 25%. Our margin assumptions have also been cut given increasing price pressure, leading to a 23% cut in our EPS forecast for FY15. Our price target for the stock has been cut 40% to 300p from 500p. Despite the sharp cuts we continue to expect significant XSense volumes to ship from Atmel/Carclo in coming years, as metal mesh touch sensors take market share from ITO. Newsflow is likely to improve through the course of 2014 in our opinion. CIT sees further disappointment Carclo's IMS states that lower than previously expected sales at CIT will reduce the division's sales and profitability in H2'FY14, below previous guidance. This is due to a slower than expected production ramp on the programs which are using XSense. Additionally the company is also seeing increased price pressure for metal mesh touch sensors which is likely to result in lower than expected revenues in FY15, though the extent of this impact is still uncertain. Increased competition is believed to be coming from Fuji Film, O-Film and Cambrios, and is likely to reduce margins in coming years. Other divisions are performing in line with expectations. Cuts to forecasts Based on the above we have cut our H2'FY14 sales forecast for CIT by 30% to £2.1m, implying a 21% cut to full year CIT sales expectations. We now expect CIT to breakeven in H2'FY14 versus our previous forecast for a £0.8m profit. For FY15 we have cut our CIT sales forecast by 25% to £9.8m, while our operating margin assumption has dropped to 33% from the previous 43%. Our full year EPS forecast for FY15 drops 25% to 11.6p. We have also cut our FY16 sales forecast for CIT by 41% to £23.6m, while the operating income forecast has been cut 56% to £9m. Is CIT worth counting on ? Numerous disappointments and the emergence of aggressive competition in the metal mesh touch sensor market clearly alters our previous assumptions and expectations for CIT. The key question is whether this division can be counted upon to deliver higher revenues and profits in coming years, given recent trends. We continue to believe so. The touch sensor market is worth about $5bn and metal mesh today accounts for 1% of it, or less. It is therefore too early to make a call on the outlook for players involved in this segment in our opinion. In coming years we forecast a significant part of this market to move to metal mesh, with the market leaders likely to benefit from this transition. We continue expect XSense to be a leading solution in this space, particularly in mid-to-high end devices. While the Windows 8-based touch notebook market is yet to take off, it seems inevitable that this will happen in an increasingly touch-based world where the pri