Member Info for Lindon

Hi Hottentot... GL buddy. Hope Iv'e not appeared TOO pessimistic, I only mean to try to provide some sort of 'balance' rather then just hype it up for the sake of it. I'm still in for the long term so tend to ignore the short monthly crisis. I think I have said before that i don't buy after large falls as a matter of policy.... something that has stood me in good stead many times but even more so with this stock over the last six months, but I'm not qualified to even give myself investment advice. I came through the last so called new tech/ dot.com bubble/boom just fine but many never recovered from it... I'll never forget the lessons I learned about new tech stocks & what can happen. Snakes & ladders is just as exciting!

Just for clarity... EVEN if another OEM climbs on board... Its STILL about the poor margins obtained. That issue is gonna take some getting over & then some! The ElitePad for instance has pretty much been discounted. It may take a good deal more than one more PO unless its Apple, Samsung or perhaps LG... to light the blue touch paper on the rocket!

Hi gocarclo... all I'm saying is i cant see there is anything much to be gained by buying before the next results & projections are known because there is a possibility there will be further loss & they will be cheaper or not much short term upside to make a difference so maybe better to wait & see what happens. The house brokers eps is the house brokers eps. So far their inflated forecasts have been... err... Inflated! Love the typo!!! £130!!! Chance would be a fine thing!!! :)

Digitimes Research: Taiwan touch panel shipments vary in 1Q14 Jen-Chieh Yan, DIGITIMES Research, Taipei [Tuesday 6 May 2014] Taiwan makers' handset touch panel shipments reached 50.19 million in the first quarter of 2014, up 12.4% on quarter, according to Digitimes Research. Makers such as TPK benefited from orders from Apple for its iPhone 4 and 4S as Apple aimed to maintain steady sales in emerging markets while Wintek saw orders from Nokia for entry-level smartphones. Looking head to the second quarter, Taiwan maker's shipments are expected to reach 50.78 million units, up 1.2% on quarter due to demand from Apple, Nokia and HTC, said Digitimes Research. Digitimes Research also noted that Taiwan makers' shipments of touch panels used in tablets dropped 35.9% sequentially to 10.82 million units in the first quarter due to the product life cycle of iPad 2, Google Nexus 7 and Amazon tablets coming to an end. Looking ahead to the second quarter, shipments are expected to increase 2.5% to 11.08 million driven by growth from China-based tablet vendors. The makers' shipments of touch panels used in notebooks meanwhile dropped 56.1% in the first quarter to about two million units and are expected to drop another 15.9% in the following quarter to 1.69 million units, added Digitimes Research. "Taiwan makers see orders for notebook touch panels shift to China Sammi Huang, Taipei; Alex Wolfgram, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 7 May 2014] Taiwan touch panel makers are losing orders for touch panels used in notebooks to makers in China due to price competition, according to industry sources. Asustek Computer, Acer, Lenovo and Hewlett-Packard (HP) are continuing to shift notebook touch panel orders to makers in China such as O-Film, which is affecting Taiwan makers' shipments, including Wintek and TPK. Taiwan makers cannot afford to match China competitors' prices, and are watching their profits drop in the segment, causing some makers to veer away from the segment or fade out." Taiwan makers' handset touch panel shipments reached 50.19 million in the first quarter of 2014, up 12.4% on quarter, according to Digitimes Research. Makers such as TPK benefited from orders from Apple for its iPhone 4 and 4S as Apple aimed to maintain steady sales in emerging markets while Wintek saw orders from Nokia for entry-level smartphones. Looking head to the second quarter, Taiwan maker's shipments are expected to reach 50.78 million units, up 1.2% on quarter due to demand from Apple, Nokia and HTC, said

.... Q: What do you mean by that? A: For example, when Apple is getting a product ready for the market, the product is in the supply chain pipeline 6-9 months before Apple even announces its launch. So we may provide shipment data for Apple 1-2 months before it even begins selling in the market, because that is when the supply chain delivers it to Apple. Q: Many people consider Digitimes Research to be the same as Digitimes. Is this is correct? A: The slogan at Digitimes is "Media, Marketing, Consulting" which means there are basically three different businesses run independently from each other. So while Digitimes may be best known as a media company, Digitimes Research is actually a business unto itself. We do our own market intelligence gathering and our analysts have a different operating mode than reporters at the Digitimes newspaper, who are more interested in real-time analysis. Digitimes Research is a market research firm, so our goal is to provide our customers with in-depth analysis and market forecasts. Q: Who are those customers, and what kind of in-depth analysis do you provide? A: All of the top ODMs and IT vendors in Taiwan are clients. Name any well-known Taiwan IT company and it is likely to be a Digitimes Research customer. We have been able to build up a customer base of more than 1,000 companies based on our ability to tie together data from the various industries that use Greater China as a supply chain hub. We offer 10 different research areas, including PC and Digital Home, Mobile Telecom, Computing, Mobile CE, Mobile Communications, Broadband and Wireless, Large-size FPD, Small-to-Medium (SM) size FPD and IC design, among others. Q: Do you serve international customers as well? A: We currently provide two data services, which we call Greater China ICT and Taiwan FPD. These services focus on shipment data from key Greater China industries. The ICT service focuses on data for notebooks, digital cameras and handsets, while the FPD service provides quarterly data for large-size LCD panels, small- to medium-size panels, LCD TVs, and monitors. These services are provided on an annual subscription basis. We are also excited to begin providing our new data tracking services for international customers as well.

Explaining the Chaiwan model for the mobile device supply chain: Q&A with Digitimes Research director Joanne Chien Michael McManus, DIGITIMES, Taipei [Friday 21 February 2014] While Digitimes is known as a media outlet, the company also includes a business unit that solely focuses on market research. Run independently from the Digitimes news organization, Digitimes Research provides market intelligence and data analysis on a number of different IT and high-tech industries to its customers. Digitimes recently spoke with Digitimes Research senior analyst & director Joanne Chien to learn more about the seismic shift that is underway in the mobile device supply chain, the concept of Chaiwan (China+Taiwan), and the new English language data services that Digitimes Research is rolling out. Q: The IT industry has been going through a major change over the past couple of years, with the rise of tablets and smartphones and the shrinking of the PC market. How has this shaken up the supply chain in Greater China? A: At this point, I guess it is fairly well known that the tablet and smartphone market is rising at the expense of the PC market, especially the notebook market. Digitimes Research estimates that while demand for mobile devices (smartphones, tablets and notebooks) rose 30% in 2013, notebook shipments dropped 12%, the biggest on-year drop on record. And we expect the slide to continue in 2014. Digitimes Research forecasts that 165-170 million notebooks will be shipped worldwide this year, down from a peak of 204.5 million in 2011. What is less well understood is how this change has shaken up the IT device supply chain. For example, if you look back at the PC industry, it has been the driving force behind Taiwan's dramatic growth over the past 30 years. That growth came about because PC brands started outsourcing their manufacturing, which in turn gave rise to the ODM model where large international brands partner with equally large manufacturers like Quanta, Compal or Wistron to produce devices. And now Taiwan dominates the global market for notebook PC manufacturing, with about an 85% market share. But as I mentioned earlier, while the notebook market is still huge, it is shrinking. If you are looking for growth, you need to look at the smartphone and tablet sectors, where design and manufacturing have either become much more consolidated or become completely decentralized, which is a phenomena that we call the Chaiwan model. Q: Can you provide a bit more color on that last statement? A: In terms of consolidation, you have huge brands like Apple and Samsung, who continue to pursue a vertical integration strategy whereby they can control more of the design, component choice (including software) and manufacturing of their products in order to give them differentiation. These brands still rely heavily on the Greater China supply chain, such as with Apple using large EMS manufacturers like Foxconn or Pegatron. However, this

Can't see the rational for investing until the results & projections for the next 12 months are known. Depending on those the sp could go up or drop again. Go long, go short... but IMO nothing is going to change much in the interim & after what has happened in the last 12 months... any 'up' wont come to much until another OEM issues a PO no-matter what they come out with.

Yes the prepayment funds the production costs but its counted as a liability until it its earned & converted to revenue under the GAAP rules. My valuation is based on IF there is no further adoption for XSense & IF that does not happen then the liability will stand. CDS is only under trials, until that becomes a more relistic proposition its just a dream at the present time & has no value. If you look at the HP Pavillion x360 model on their web site you will see it claims to have the latest in touch screen technology... it was launched 26th Feb. So I was expecting THIS to be the next model to be announced by Atmel. Obviously not! What do they consider to be the latest technology?? Although not necessarily so... it could mean that the ElitePad will be last of HP's models to have an XSense TS. It DOES mean that HP have not accepted XSense as their one & only & as yet no other OEM in the world has issued a PO despite all the design wins & programms worked on. Also IF there is no further interest we have to consider write downs. £20-25m?? I don't want to even go there! We are investors, we can take a chance & speculate... Carclo have a company to run, it can't be run on speculation... for one thing... the auditors won't allow it.

CDS is dependant on the trials & even if sucsseful it will be a long time before its launched on the market. If XSense doesn't gain anymore traction & if we break Carclo downtown its bare bones & numbers produced at half time then we are probably talking somewhere just under 100p so 120-130 will look expensive to some. Obviously life isn't really like that for what is essentaiily a stock presumed to have 'potential' ... but it could be. I'm guessing the debt will probably of gone to somewhere around £20m... maybe just under. The pension deficit is £6.5m. The credit/borrowing facilities are just under £30m. And then there is the tax man. Most of the capex should now be done with & some room left for manoeuvre... but not a lot. I still think a rights issue is the most likely outcome.

Know what you mean but the customers are Atmel's under the 10 year exclusivity agreement for the sensor, not Carclo's who are merely a supplier. It's down to Atmel to do do the presentation/hype work... & they do!. What Atmel had to say wasn't all that bad IMO... It was Carclo's RNS warning for 2015 that caused the fall. Folk have moaned they have been over egging it... & events have certainly proved that to be the case... can't now complain when they tell it as it is & ask them to start over egging it again! I say again... Its the selling prices & the profit margins that are the problem, not the benifits of the technology. Every OEM in the industry is well aware of the technology. Atmel have have had design wins coming out their backsides & numerous XSense programmes being worked on with the OEM's... they still are... but the photolitho printing process has become uncompetitive in the face of a 50% fall in sensor prices from the Asians. No amount of PR is going to change that anytime soon. Even Apple... who can get away with charging a premium for their devices... have to stay within a reasonable price range in order to try to retain market share... & even now they are starting to lose it. Corning's 0.4mm Gorrila Glass NBT was launched at the end of last July... (ITO film has proved to be no good due to its poor SNR) That collobaration maybe the game changer that XSense seems to need to break the impass.

FTSE small-cap technology-led plastics firm Carclo (LSE: CAR) updated the market today saying that it expects a strong year-on-year trading improvement when it reports full-year results on 10 June, but the shares fell 27% on the news. Why? Emerging growth from within Exciting growth can emerge from within a company when a steady business develops a new product line. One example of that is what the Costa coffee brand has done for Whitbread, transforming the entire business into a vibrant grower. It’s no surprise that investors keep a look out for such opportunities, particularly in the small-cap space, where growth could have the furthest to run. Expectations were high when Carclo (LSE: CAR) moved into the Conductive Inkjet Technology (CIT) touch screen business, and the shares moved up to accommodate a lofty forward P/E multiple in anticipation of higher profits ahead. However, a trading update on 1 May revealed that the market for touch sensors is proving to be more competitive than was initially expected and selling prices have declined to half of prior year levels. That was enough to knock the shares down by around 27% to today’s 130p or so. Getting it in perspective So, growth in Carclo’s CIT division is going to be slower than expected. However, last year, the CIT division accounted for less than 1% of the firm’s revenue, with 65% coming from the Technical Plastics division, 26% from LED Technologies and 9% from Precision Engineering. CIT business isn’t yet dead and buried, and the rest of the firm’s trading is doing quite well. In the recent statement, the directors said they expect a strong year-on-year improvement in overall trading performance despite the reduction in previously anticipated sales in the CIT division. Trading has been steady in recent years: Year to March 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Revenue (£m) 87 81 89 93 87 Profit before tax (£m) 3.65 4.62 6.77 5.5 5.01 Net cash from operations (£m) 6.33 2.55 5.8 9.06 9.83 Revenue and profits have been holding there own and there’s an encouraging upwards trend in operating cash flow. At the half-time stage for the March-2014 year, revenue and profits were up. Valuation At 130p, the shares are valuing the firm at about 18 times historical earnings and last-reported net debt is running at around 2.5 times last years’ operating profit, which seems controllable. An investment now buys a company generating 60% of revenues from supplying fine tolerance, injection moulded plastic components, which are used in medical, optical and electronics products. The remaining 40% comes from specialised precision components serving the premium automotive and aerospace industries, and from LED optics for supercars and other applications. A big part of Carclo’s strategy is to develop new technologies and products to drive future growth. That hasn’t changed, but the shares just got cheaper.

There is no doubt the new version of ElitePad is a huge win, it sells into the industry/business markets in large volumes across the globe. Although still in the global 'roll out' phase this device is why Atmel are saying the figures will be "nicely up" this quarter... large volume PO's are obviously important & this should make a large helpful dent in the prepayment liability so it can be unwound into revenue earned. IMO it also testament to the quality of the sensor. However as I have tried to previously indicate... it is no longer just about quality, volumes or device 'win's'... its about Carclo's profit margins obtained from those volumes... hence the current sp 'weakness' "As previously reported, the market for touch sensors is proving to be more competitive than was initially expected and selling prices have continued to decline to approximately half of prior year levels. Asian competition remains strong with low pricing offered by a Japanese and a Chinese metal mesh supplier and also the "One Glass Solution", using lower cost ITO". XSense is far & away a superior product to the O-Tech & Fuji-film silver mesh solutions referred to... & OGS with ITO film has its technical limitations... but it comes down to the cost of production & selling prices. As Liberium have said... It may take a while for the dynamics to settle down.

It seems to have largly gone unoticed that the new HP ElitePad 1000 G2 ... & confirmed by Atmel Investor Relations that Atmel's CEO wrongly announced it as Elite Book... is HP's multi jacketed 64 bit flagship business tablet. This is no low volume niche tablet. The ElitePad comes right out of HP's top draw for the enterprise market & represents a massive vote of HP's confidence in XSense. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GY5XexjzJxM

Hi Lucan, the debt at half year time was around £14m & their ceiling is £29m if I remember it correctly. A lot depends on how large the debt pile has grown in the last six months on weather they will be able to manage it without a rights issue. The problem as I see it it is that they are going to continue to need money to go forward & there is no prospect of it coming from the coated film sales & any sales they DO get will be at minimal true profit. There is no doubt that the core is doing very well indeed but what that brings in doesn't even scratch the sides of the capex that's been allocated to date. Its the 2015 warning that is the issue... nothing else has actually changed to what we already knew... & profit warnings come in threes!

XSense maybe a superior product to all rest but its not price competitive as Carclo have stated. There is no way that position is going to change anytime soon & Carclo's RNS also contains the profit warning for 2015 that foresees that. That's the second profit warning we have had. The collaboration with Corning is simply that. A possibility that something may be able to be developed as a way out of the mire. IMHO Carclo's capex over many of the divisions in the last 12 months or more without any meaningful way of supporting it with income means a new rights issue will almost certainly have to be held. They have to get some money in from somewhere! "As previously reported, the market for touch sensors is proving to be more competitive than was initially expected and selling prices have continued to decline to approximately half of prior year levels. Asian competition remains strong with low pricing offered by a Japanese and a Chinese metal mesh supplier and also the "One Glass Solution", using lower cost ITO"

has surly got to be a new rights issue. The debt must be very close to the ceiling & will probably be announced with the end of year results on June the 10th. After that would be a good time to buy IMO.

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Hi Hawker, you could be right of course but I personally don't think there are any tales to tell that we don't already know about. The L&G sale was miniscule in the grand order of things so I don't think it meant much. Atmel have their 1Q earnings call tomorrow so we should get an indication of XSense revenue for that period. Although I doubt the numbers will set the world alight for CAR just yet we may learn a bit more about the project with Corning for the new Gorilla Glass NBT... as its called. Corning had their 1Q yesterday, but not much was said about NBT.(extract below) Ehud Gelblum - Citigroup That’s awesome. I wish you guys luck at that. As you go through the different generations of Gorilla, I’m assuming that what could be growing a lot this year might be NBT? Does that change the margin profile or the pricing profile of Gorilla as you go through the different generations of Gorilla, specifically this year versus what you had in Q4 and Q1? And is it NBT that really will be providing a lot of this 30% plus growth? Wendell Weeks So, no, actually, NBT though it’s growing fast as Jim pointed out. It’s off a small number. So the primary drivers for us is that main line Gorilla product Gorilla Glass three and hopefully this year a new and improved version. So that will be the lion's share of the growth in those places where you’re used to us being. We’re after some of these lower performance areas not so much about this year in what it can do but because it overtime as touch technology now proliferates every price point, we need to make sure we’ve got the right offering to go after those real-value segments and that’s still a work in process. Atmel First Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call Apr 30, 2014 2:00 PM PT

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7vzN7L4NPs

Typo... it should of course read EKF Diagnostics!