Member Info for lemmink

Anyone tempted by RPT?...I'm sticking with CAD for now...GLA

Don't like the look of this thing...nothing on the balance sheet...5p placing RNS contains a lot of stuff I simply don't understand.

Glad to be of service!...This share can be a bit trying at times, but todays RNS is very encouraging...loosing Zag and Pirk would have blown a £30 million hole in the balance sheet IMO... been watching RPT which I think is CAD's closest peer, and it hasnt done much today.

Total guess work but it looks like a slightly less stingy than normal buyer is present...IMO it will be quite an achievement for the SP to hold this level for the short term.

Finished reading as far as the AFE Well cost estimate. Companies can budget to within circa 25% (minimum + 25%) in the early planning stages and to within 15% when many of the actual costs are agreed with suppliers etc. So an outsider probably can't expect to estimate better than to within minimum + 40% range? The books example was based on an off shore well drilled in 1997 (probably western hemisphere) in 60 days to a depth of 2765m below sea bed, budgeted to cost (assuming success) $7.6 million to $8.7 million. Successive casings from 30 in down to 7 in were used and internal hole diameter was constant except for the very last section. This suggests casing costs at the top are significantly higher than at the bottom due to the sheer amounts of steel required in the casings. By category: "time dependant costs" were 50%, "depth dependant costs" were 20%, "fixed costs" were 20% and "support costs" were 10% of budget, for the off shore well. By removing rig hire, casing above sea bed and other off shore looking costs, I reckon the cost profile for a land based well is approximately as follows... DEPTH DEPENDANT COSTS 50% (2/3 Steel, 1/6 drilling mud, 1/6 cement and drill bits) FIXED COSTS 30% (2/3 well testing, 1/3 logging) SUPPORT COSTS 10% (share of general admin) TIME DEPENDANT COSTS 10% (rig running costs excluding rig hire costs)

CAD might be worth a look, if you dont mind a ukranian gas e&p er with an sp going nowhere at present...v cheap by balance sheet, earnings potential v difficult to assess... licence and debt collection issues could be the elephant in the room.

Only had a little read... but some nice surprises...balance sheet growth by £3 million ... not sure how they did that!...NAV is 37p per share IMO... Very nice to see some forward looking costing numbers... and to find out that CAD owns its own drilling rig; is it a good one?!

Found this sentance... Sizing down a conventional well by one casing size can save over 20% on the drilled well cost. [Not clear what reduction in "hole width" constitutes a casing size?... 2 inches possibly?] Book also talks about "slimhole" drilling ... completed in 4.75 inch holes or smaller... prob no good for CAD as difficult for multiple pay zones.

Thanks for confirming that... I feel a bit silly for taking so long to figure that bit out!

Bought a book called "Practical Well Planning and Drilling Manual". Author is Steve Devereux and publisher is Penwell. Much of the stuff in the (expensive) book appears to be freely avaible on His website http://www.drillers.com . Seismic interpretation is outside the scope of the book, I have not seen anything about projecting well revenue streams, but there is a lot of stuff about an initial AFE (Authorisation For Expenditure) estimate in designing wells. It is quite complicated and I have understood very little of the small amount I have read, but I suspect there is enough material to develop some sort of understanding and simplified model of drilling costs. Drilling costs vs potential revenue streams is probably the most significant issue regarding the share price now IMO.

In your own time mate!... :o)

The 1000 boepd thing is a bit of a guess on my part... page 5 of the hardman report says "Undiscounted annual revenues of $22.4m are expected in 2013 after tax and royalty"... using $1.5/£ and £30 per boe, ignoring zag3 and rounding down by a couple of hundred boepd for the minor licences gives the 1000 boepd figure... not sure why it would take so long... maybe the indirect legal challenges still matter? My understanding of oil industry basics is minimal to say the least! Significant factors / concepts which I am slowly becoming acquainted with are drilling costs, reserve sizes, flow rates, depletion rates and chances of success...doubtless there are others? Back to flow rates... I did notice a recent JKX RNS where they did something to one of their wells to get it producing over 4000 boepd; more than five(?) times the initial flow rate.. from memory.

I think the majority of us who have been in for a long time were focussing on the balance sheet position, which is resolved now and it is clear that to create CAD from scratch would cost 35p plus per share. So from that angle the shares are cheap, unfortunately so too are Regals (RPT), we may simply need a sector re-rating for a good return. On the other hand CAD's business case going foward is not so clear to me and it may even be that the board require time to decide what to do now that they find themselves still in business! The hardman report points towards the development of the pirkovskoe-1 well as the next thing of significance, which looks like it might be able to produce above 1000 boepd, quite quickly?... I don't think there is any obvious quick trigger to a share price rise "RNS wise" due in the short term.

Todays RNS contains nothing surprising...been looking at some of your other posts... ENK looks very interesting... odd that it appears to be trading at half price or better after its july 12 RNS.

Looks like Morgan Stanley have quietly built up a 3% stake in Regal Petroleum (Since they have not appeared on Regals register of shareholders or done any holdings RNS before, as far as i can tell). Given the similarities between CAD & Regal, it would be nice to think they may be doing the same here!.. we dont seem to get RNS's of our own any more!

The growth rate is good if it is not solely attributable to diminished exceptional costs and can be sustained into 2011 to some extent...good luck...incidentally, I noticed that 30 something million shares changed hands a few days or a week or so ago but nobody posted a comment on the fact and I have not seen a holdings rns... starting to think i imagined it?

redleader1, great forecast that would make them worth £1.60+ imo... apologies in advance for being a nuisance!

Sorry for silly question, but I can't find any info on the 10p bank warrants, how many of those things exist now? GL with the mtg ... I am not a shareholder at present.

Only holding CAD, but glad to see Regal Petroleum rise by 30%+ today, started looking at them yesterday as a comparator to CAD, they were looking a bit cheap even against CAD which was a nasty surprise for me. RE GAS price hike, I think CAD is currently getting £38 per boe (inc VAT), which is a discount to Brent prices?...so a 50% hike to consumers could quite conceivably be of feasible benefit to CAD.

A new strategy would be a good idea, I think a lot of the old stuff was geared towards appeasement of shareholders, facilitating possible liquidation and survival. Hopefully they will come up with something to allow the disgruntled 30%+ of shareholders an exit at a reasonable(ish) price. This retrace is looking ugly... Im in too deep to justify topping up with what little spare I have left...unless it goes to about 8 pence! You havn't been shorting this as well have you?!