Member Info for lemmink

Please excuse the green eyed monster sat on the sidelines...Only just noticed and had a little look at yesterdays RNS...Cash down from $64 million in June to $28 million Dec 10th...14 million (Euro's) liabilities to settle and $25 million Barlad money to receive...ie net cash per share 7p or 2p (without Barlad)>>> RPT would be in a very bad place without the bidders IMO.

Very nice post...many thanks.

Cash up by £300K on 19/11/10 RNS * Assurance from GPS of payment ($6.5m) by yr end. * Still drilling. * Details of approved and contingent budget given. (P1 & P2 my labeling) * Project 1 (P1):: Invest £6.1 million to get extra 900 boepd by end of 2011. * Project 2 (P2):: Invest £13.8 million to get extra 900 boepd by end of 2011?) * **** VALUATION ATTEMPT (mine) **** If depletion of 30% pa, £30 per boe and assuming success then using DCF (5%) over 12 yr period... * I think P1 has NPV of £22 million, pay back period of 8 months, MIRR of 20% and adds 9p share to intrinsic value. I think P2 has NPV of £14 million, pay back period of 18 months, MIRR of 11.5% and adds 6p. * ADDED to "Hardman & co" 25.5p conservative value points to 40p * ****SECOND VALUATION ATTEMPT (also mine) **** Assuming as above and that P1 and P2 represent long term profitability potential. * Undiscounted 2012 revenue from P1 and P2 approximates to forecast 2012 profits (IMO) and is circa £20 million... ie EPS 8.5p * Guessing that a dividend cover of four is required to keep the ship steady long term, suggests CAD could be paying sustainable dividends of 2p share in 2012....this also points to 40p (IMO) * **** COMMENT **** Nice to get some budget figures to play with...probably a bit early to take dividend estimates too seriously ... above obviously excludes Bitlyanska (CADS largest Licence)...MIRR stands for "modified internal rate of return" and is conceptually an implied interest rate, as I have tried to calculate it (eg P1 equates to investing £6.1 million for 12 years at 20% pa)

Sold 25000 @ 21.04p still holding 385000...Institutionals have previously demonstrated willingness to sell at this level before...I think its wrong!...but hey ho...GLA

Thanks for clarifying that bit...looking at the $54.5 million original purchase price, even if GPS did default, then assuming CAD got full possesion of the plant...it might be in CAD's favour...particularly if they find a lot of gas at some stage!

Thanks for sharing that, Ive tried googling GPS a few times, and not come up with much of comfort myself... I hope I wont have to apologise for tipping this at some stage. From memory I am certain I read some where that CAD says they have retained title to the equipment under the settlement agreement in the event of default. But I hate to think what the re-sale value might be, if it came to it!

Overall very pleasing...but the last paragraph is a little unclear...I think it says some GPS is money is due, but so far none has been received...(apart from stuff from other settlement agreements?)...I think the total GPS debt was always $36.5 million?

When I called this rubbish... I was only joking!!!!

Just tried to buy 50000 shares at 8p over the phone, but they were only willing to give 5000 shares at that price...they quoted 9.5p for the whole order...said no thanks to that!

Why did you buy this rubbish?...just curious to see it from a new investors angle. ;o) GL

Good question...hopefully its a good thing for both CAD & RPT... "G Stien" was one of the three who were executive directors at Regal when the "Shell offer" was on the table...They were the immediate predecessors to Greer and his gang...Thinking positively, it suggests regals reserves are of good quality, provided Greer is justifiably disgraced, and it suggests CAD has got a good CFO now***It is quite a lot to take on trust and the appointment is "interestingly timed".

Institutionals have been buying and selling to each other...share price will go up, down or sideways IMO...hope this helps!

Didn't notice it...QVT have started selling at same price (ish) as Weiss...35 million shares to go...could take a while! ...sorry can't help myself (serial deramper!)

Oh well...so much for that theory.

Recent relatively heavy buying + new broker suggests to me that after 3+ months of leaving this share to the PI's some one with money may have decided to put their foot down and impose a no entry sub 22.5p rule...I hope they succeed!...Balance sheet NAV circa 35p...Core NAV as calculated by Industry analysts etc is higher [can't remember]

Can't speak for rafflesdiamonds, but there is a lot of info lying around...other posters links, website & RNS stuff. I think paying over 25p would be silly without further news confirming GPS receipt or favourable drilling results circa year-end. I reckon the licence issue is unimportant ...unless a new set back emerges! CAD was big and does still have a lot of land to explore and develop...I think 70p+ is there to play for; subject largely to normal "operational / business risks" for the industry.

For personal therapy I feel the need to spit out a few thoughts on the matter... Watching CAD's neighbour, "Regal" burning from the side lines has been traumatic for me!...Heart felt commiserations for long term RPT holders!! *******On fundamentals alone it is cleary apparrent that RPT shares sould be priced at roughly double CAD shares. ******I think ethics and trust issues are coming in to play. Regarding CAD's turnaround story to date IMO there has always been clear delineation between the devils and angels...and the angels appear to be winning. ******The tap of foriegn investment to Ukraine I suspect is turned off until another company besides JKX can demonstrate success. I think the Ukraine govenment is under some pressure to ensure this happens! CAD (New CAD) is well positioned to stand a good chance of providing the necessary "example". If RPT key players are mereley devils preparing for another round of asset squabbling; they are in danger of presenting an affront to what I think Ukraine is trying to achieve.

Change to... nervous, but sticking with CAD!

No idea what to make of RPT situation...happy to stick with CAD!

From 7bore's recent link CAD clearly is potentially a "big beast" ... the sheer number of potential well locations (however many that is)...is staggering...To construct them will take time and money. This means either substantial dilution or prolonged reinvestment of retained earnings...effecting both or either the size of eventual divedends payable to shareholders or the time until the dividends start to flow. Shares should produce dividends not gas! IMO It is too early to consider dividend valuation seriously as yet...leaving capital employed (circa £85 million; 35p/share), as the most realistic measure for a prudent investor (by assuming a reasonable return)... it also needs to be discounted for the GPS (£20 million) issue, which may be subject to "collection risk".