Member Info for lemmink

I think dobboy may about to make a bid to take over CAD...watch for RNS!

Still think this is worth 70p plus, so to top slicing this side of 30p is unthinkable to me! ... wish I had seen this re-trace coming!!... The 22.5p investor saved the company from liquidation (IMO) and had to buy in "then or never". If there are other big buyers on the sidelines they can take their time and strike better deals with the 30- 40% of shareholders who may think CAD should have been liquidated. This share is a bit like watching an unexploded bomb, another long wait for a return may or may not be required and perhaps the SP has significantly further to fall on such thin volumes...hope not!!!

Gold found in May (RNS)... upto 20 parts per billion in some areas...is that a lot or a little?... the market does not seem particularly impressed!

Not really into charting, but just noticed march to date share price graph defines a classic head and shoulders pattern. It is particularly clear on this site under the 3 year view.

Resolution 14 blocked, 66% against, therefore no return of cash to shareholders, and maybe one third of shareholders are very unhappy? Resolution 15 passed, a general meeting can be convened with two weeks notice...interesting one that?! All board members keep their jobs (73% support) Other RNS this morning| Well at "Zag" is expected to produce 500 boepd, up from 350 boepd on earlier well test RNS. Farm out process still on going, all in all a very good day..... so the SP will probably tank tommorrow! GLA :o)

Not had time or spare cash to justify considering this in much detail, but not forgotten it, only slight issue of concern is that macro economic negativity has re-surfaced a bit over the last few weeks.

I think its still early days... the removal of Weiss was a show of support from the investment community which was more significant and necessary than any farm out deal.

Thanks for that, I could only find the first 29 pages of the document, but I reckon the majority of such expenditure could be funded by retained earnings in due course. Having said that, perhaps the board have found enough potential support to fully repair the balance sheet to 2008 IPO strength. That would require £120 million plus, and involve a lot of dilution! I also noticed from the revised voting forms, there was a proposal seeking permission to convene meetings for voting at short notice (I think). Perhaps the board need to find out from us, how many want in or out at the AGM before coming back with re-financing proposals from new backers.

Thank you for giving me something new to worry about!! Please can you tell me where the company development mid range plans can be found? I've looked through the website a bit and re-checked the latest annual report and all I can see is £46.4 million over 5 years (note 29) with a mention that, to meet the groups corporate targets, a greater level of capex could be incurred. It still suggests to me that seeking additional funding is an option rather than a necessity in the short term.

The farm out process keeps nagging at me, note 29 to the accounts show the company has enough money not to need partners or further funding for two years plus. In the interview IB said the farm out process was about de-risking the portfolio. I think the farm out process may be redundant if the company is not returning money to shareholders. This would also suggest cash flow neutrality would be excluding capital expenditure, which will surely be significant. Company's dont sit on cash for the hell of it, it will get invested, and fast! and hopefully it will work. Thus far we are running the risk of break up etc in order to get the chance to take part in a high risk industry. Perhaps this new fear explains the slight price drop today.

Just chucked some loose change at it (19.85p)... more out of irritation than anything else...shares are obviously cheap below 22.5p now

67 million shares, only Weiss have that many to sell, so I see no reason to doubt Trrimes word on Weiss having sold out. We still need confirmation and to know the buyers intentions, but it looks like a 20p floor has now been established and whatever the odds were of Cad being liquidated, they are surely now much reduced. GLA.

Sorry to see you got some flack for the 50p thing, personally I sincerely reckon 70p plus is a possibility. Good luck with the other one.

Feel reasonably sure I've got the 25.71p topps figure right...but then it was my second attempt and I have not come accross the term "partial offer" before...may be I am wrong...hopefully we will find out soon.

IMO the implications are... Weiss (+others?) will attempt to purchase (51% of 231 million) 117,856,274 shares for 16p each + half of £22.9m/117m [note 20 AR09 GPS thing] = 9.71p ie in total, 25.71p at most, over 18 months (assumed). This will cost £30.3 million. This will leave Weiss + others, with 231 million shares worth a book value of (£83.6 million - £30.3 million) 23p per share. The offer is clearly reasonable (IMO), if you beleive CAD needs to be liquidated. But if you beleive CAD has value as a going concern, roughly equal to double book value (as per IPO) it is rather poor! It also suggests (IMO) rather unfortunately , that a significant farm out deal, leaving much of CAD's cash, spare, as opposed to useful, may have already been done.

was going to post some calcs...but they're wrong!... will try again tommorrow... re farm out thing ..no idea!

I have noticed that other oilies in a happier state than cadogan are often happily trading off a multiple of book value per share. A quick look at the statement of changes in equity (AR09) suggests that the IPO price of £2.30 was in fact over double book value per share. I realise this a bit shocking in the conetext of 17.25p but (IMO) it very strongly suggests that a going concern value for CAD could be 60 - 70p quite easily. I have been trying to think of a reason for this, and after dismissing mere "over enthusiasm" I think it could be a consequence of industry speciffic expertise being a scarce resource. It strikes me as being very important to try to avoid the mistake of selling too quickly, if these shares do get re-rated.

Relax--- CAD is due to release a high "impact" RNS to "take it to the next level". Having done my research I am sure Cadogan,s planned diversification into agriculture will result in a transformation....This time next year we'll be millionnaires!

I like LA LA Land! Most companies get by on being good enough; true excellence commands a high premium. The challenges CAD has faced are of an extreme nature, and thus far the turnarround play has been executed with text book precision IMO. CAD could have now been purged of normal organisational weaknesses and re-configured to deliver consistent out-performance. Perhaps, on a basis of "what doesn't break you, makes you stronger" these shares are worth more than the IPO price of £2.30 now.

Using 1bcf=0.18mmboe, infers 1.2mmcfpd (Gas per RNS) = 216 boepd and assuming 120 bb (condensate per RNS)) per day = 120 boepd; Daily production commencing in August this year would be 336 boepd. Assuming an Ex-VAT selling price of £30 boe and VAT rate of 25% gives (IMO): Annual revenue of £3.5 million and £885K recoverable VAT per year (against the off balance sheet deferred tax asset). Assuming the revenue stream is long lasting and profit margins reasonable this "well" adds approx 2p per share to NAV (IMO). RNS says more wells will need to be drilled, suggesting multiples of 2p in due course? CAD owns 90% of this licence (so 10% needs knocking off the above) The Zagoryanska licence has 50mmboe (contingent) according to the reserve report; which is equal to 2.5mmboe on a "P50" basis?