Member Info for lemmink

Just a thought, but while this asset (worth 5p per share) has been written down to zero, it does still technically exist. If a sufficiently large proportion of CAD's obligations were farmed out and all cash was retained within the business, it would become spare cash. Could this spare cash then be invested to acquire a short term "VATable" revenue stream in order to utilise the deferred tax asset which is currently off balance sheet?

I reckon I've learnt all that I am capable of learning about CAD; its taken a while! There has been a lot of info released to the public domain recently. I think its possible that much of it is new to the institutionals also, and they may need as much time as possible to consider it carefully. This is not a decision they would wish to get wrong, so I think the jury is still very much out on CAD.

It was a lot more informal than I expected + in the wake of the commissioned research released yesterday I suspect people could not think of questions to ask. I think only if Weiss see a significant degree of up side as a going concern against break up will they allow the company to continue, since their holding is less liquid than ours and they can not "cut and run" as easy as us. I also think Weiss proposals are incomplete becuase they have not got a replacement lined up for Ian Baron, which may influence their thinking. On balance I still think the shares are cheap, but by how much is the issue? --Off to work now...How are you feeling about the shares now?

Very short not many questions asked, I dont think the instituionals were there at all. Who asked the first question I could not hear it? Got the unbridled optimism under control now!

Thats a serious bit of spin commissioned by the CAD board, hope it convinces Weiss!! pages 7/8 and 18 particularly worth looking at.

For what its worth I'm not going to bother voting...too much trouble....Besides in my mad deluded state of unbridled optimism I think a Weiss U-turn is on the cards. Interesting to see Q have topped up also...May be they think the shares are cheap...I find it difficult to imagine these guys would chuck more money at this just to shoot themselves in the foot!

effit! if its good enough for Weiss!

This bit deserves a mention..."The minimum requirement for future financing of exploartion and development work on fields under licence obligations" ... is £46.4 million over the next 5 years... the need for farm out partners is therefore not drastically urgent (IMO)... but a reputable partner would give CAD's reputation a bit of a much needed boost!

Statement of changes in equity::: Little of interest really, but...The £250 million SPA thing is sorted... and... Equity declined by £120 million despite a capital injection of over £170 million (cash) in mid 2008. CAD's principle failure (IMO) was over investing and poor "workmanship" making the bought prospects look bad. If there is cause for doubt over the value of CAD's equity at present, then surely the correct question to ask is how much up-side is there?

Are they suggesting as a going concern CAD is worth 53p a share?... A shame they did not mention that with a little re-assessment involving western tech the reserves could be re-classified again and consequenty re-valued closer to their original cost price, adding another 14p to the value (IMO)!

with some ref to note 27 + other stuff. Adding back cash received of £0.9million gives total cash burn of £42.4 million (IMO). £23.4 million was invested in Licences, PP& E which can be attributed to the old board and presumably re-sold in the event of liquidation (IMO). £2.2 million for working capital movements. £3.5 million for staff costs (Assumed paid in year). £4 million for legal costs (I think £2million was still owing at year end?) £1.5 million for directors fees (Assumed paid in year) Leaving £7.8 million unexplained. ++ Getting a bit confused and losing motivation as my own "fear levels" subside!! yesterdays investor presentation slides, avaialble on CAD's website, give a very good summary of overall situation IMO. ** Page 12 (AR09, hard copy) says 2010 cash out-flow is £0.9 million per month (not sure if this is operating cash flow only?)

Thinking about it further, the post year end gain I've suggested would not be possible without the existence of a £90 million asset valued in ukrainian currency...pity!

With some reference to AR08 & AR07 directors reports also. Ian Boran was a non executive director at Cad from 10/11/06 until 18/04/08 when he quit, along with the non executive chairman at the time (W P Jeffcock). James Donaldson and Nicholas Corby were serving as non executive directors at the time. NC is now an executive director, JD is still a non exec. All other non execs including S Duffy (chairman) joined in May 2008 and remain in position. All executive directors from the time (Mr Tolley (Cheif exec), Mr Vivcharyk (COO), Mr Sawka (CFO) and Mr Biddlestone (Asset Development Director) left the company between March & June 2009. The company now has two executive directors Ian Boran (Appointed March 2009) and Nicholas Corby (Appointed June 2009, part time £2000 per day!, now £15K per month). The company has five non executive directors.

STATEMENT OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME||| Reveals an additional unrealised loss of £11.3 million (5p per share) due to unrealised currency translation differences. During 2009 the Ukranian Grivna (also called Hryvnia) UAH fell by approx 14%, it has since then rebounded by nearly the same amount (0.09 down to 0.077 upto 0.085 UAH to GBP) suggesting there is an unrealised gain adding up to 4p per share to NAV this year to date (IMO).

Opinion is "QUALIFIED"; as far as I can tell this is due to carrying values of assets from prior years being difficult to verify, which may have some knock on effects to the 31/12/09 financial position. All in connection to the procurement irregualrities (IMO) and hopefully not that serious! EMPHASIS OF MATTER X2||| 1)The accounts do not value the company on a break up basis... 2) If the company loses its "indirect legal battle" relating to licences (IMO), the auditors statement suggests an impairment of £22.7 million is required (10p per share off NAV). This possibly explains the chairman,s (S Duffy) valuation on break up as ranging from 17- 26p per share.

Your posts have been removed; are we not allowed to tease the sharks!...W & Q sitting in a tree.....

Tried to get a breakdown of "other admin expenses" (£20.7 million) from notes + Directors remuneration report, think it is as follows... Capitalised Depreciation.......1.7 million Other depreciation....................1.1 million Accountancy fees......................0.4 million Directors pay.............................1.5 million Legal stuff...................................6.1 million Disposal loss............................5 million Staff Costs (Gross)...................3.5 million Other Costs................................6.8 million {balancing figure} EQUALS......................................26.1 million LESS...staff costs gain thing...(0.8) million{P11 AR09) LESS..Foreign exchange gain.(4.6) million EQUALS........................................20.7 million. Impairments 87.3 million & sundry net trading income 0.3 million......should call it the impairments and expenses statement!

Thanks for the praise! does it make you feel like topping up?? + do you know when the AGM / "Judgement Day" is? + has any one looked at (www.weissasset.com) it is plugged in the chairmans statement, I have not, but it would be nice to know a bit more about the beast! Do they mention cad?, what sectors do they follow?, how likely to do "turn arround" plays are they? anything really....I am going to continue reading the annual report, I might be over a third of the way through in a week or so!...GLA

Cumulative present value Formula. Annuity value is the "number of £ received each year" multiplied by (1-(1+r)^-n)/r || [One minus open brackets one plus r close brackets to the power negative n all divided by r] Where r is the discount rate as a decimal (5%=0.05) and n is the number of years. SPREADSHEET I have put this on a spread sheet and it gives me a value range of 6p to 47p per share, which is not very helpfull but could be suggestive of a ball park value||| Hopefully Weiss etc. can do a better job and make the correct call.

Selling Price of Oil Equivalent Note 5 (AR09 page 54) Sales Revenue = £2.342million Minor Fields (AR09 p10) Sales Volume = 163.5 boepd (Inferred/IMO) 59677 boe per year (X365) Hence selling price (One boe) = £39.24|||| Contingent Reserves Page 8 AR09 The bottom line of that pyramid graph thing implies to me that CAD's licences have a 50% chance of yielding 51.1mmboe (million barrels of oil equivalent). On that basis total generateable revenue is (51.1million x £39.24) £2.005 billion. MY MAD GUESSES (ASSUMPTIONS).. 1) It takes 3 years to find the oil equivalent stuff.. 2) It takes 20 years to extract and sell (Revenue therefore is £100 million).. 3) All CAD's balance sheet resources are consumed (ie ceases trading after 23 years).. 4) 50% of equity is sacrificed for necessary farm outs.. 5) The possible reward for finding more than 51.1mmboe exactly compensates for the risk of finding less.. 6) Net profit margin (After everything) is between 5% and 20% (No Idea: A total guess!).. 7) Divedend cover of 2 (pessimistic) or 1 (optimistic)..Not sure this necessary given assumption 3.. 8) Discount rate (cost of capital) is 5%||| Dividend streams / METHOD Company value is the present value of a 23 annuity of £1.25m to £10m (dividend stream) less the present value of such an annuity for 3 years (Receiving nothing for first 3 years).||| Cumulative Present Value Formula. Annuity value is the "number of £ received each year"