Member Info for lemmink

Exploration assets appear to have been previously valued on a sunk cost basis (IMO). The board have prudently (or under obligation?) effectively written 500+mmboe of contingent resources down to zero from £56million. Goodwill appears to have been similarly treated as a consequence of reserves having been re-classified to contingent; written down from £2.3million to zero. Deferred tax asset? VAT receivable was written down by £13.2million. This is the thing Weiss were principally complaining about as being excessive (IMO); I still don't understand it. Property Plant and equipment was written down by £5million to £32 million. It is not clear to me if that gas treatment plant installed at Pirkovskoe (being under utilised) or if the GPS thing is included in the remaining balance sheet items?? Other Assets: £10.5million of receivables and inventories were written down, and reasonably so (IMO). Also I have noticed the conversion factor bcf to mmboe of 0.18 being given in the small print, which might be useful at some stage. In addition: (Trrime's link) The article shows the character of the old board leadership (Charismatic Taker?) I think that is quite significant!!!

All major licence areas are in close proximity to Ukranian gas distribution infrastructure. The resources are primarily gas rather than oil. The group has four major licences (90 - 100% interests), the biggest of which is Bitlyanska 390 sq km and 325 million boe (Contingent). Some work on the Zagoryanska licence 49.6 sq km and 50 million boe (Contingent) was FARMED OUT in LATE 2009! The Perkovskoe Licence area (134 million boe Contingent) appears to have been the main operational disaster area for the old board, having installed gas treatment plant in anticipation of 300,000 cubic meters of gas and 150 tonnes of condensate per day back in 2007, which has failed to materialise. Minor Licences are producing 163.5 boe per day (boepd?). To retain possesion of the major licences the company must do all sorts of geoligical and economic assessment activities including seismic wotsits and drilling holes etc! This leads me wonder how much additional funding the company would require (if any--probably lots???) in order to be able to retain and develope these prospects, should they be given the green light to carry on in business. All the abbreviations ... mmboe etc are a wee bit confusing to me!

I think a share in a boat would be good for us all!

I agree that Weiss being involved is a good thing, but it would be nice to know wether they are here as backer or vulture for sure. Also I suspect there must have been some good people working for CAD fighting the good fight from the start etc. I am sure not all rich people are spivs and crooks, I hope to be rich myself one day!! -- also back to Weiss they have the money and stakeholder power to gain access to info and expertise to be able to decide wether these guys should be allowed to carry on or not... and scarey as it is to me too drilling expensive holes is what oil explorers do!

Having read both the chairmans statement (Simon Duffy) and Weiss capitals letter to shareholders I have a few comments to make... Weiss criticises Cadogan primarily for the period upto end of June 2009, but the current board took control in March 2009 and it took until June 2009 for all previous executive directors to leave. Ian Boran (CEO) was a non executive director prior to march 2009, I think. Non execs exist to be there and take on (take out) executive directors in extreme circumstances, this was the one positive about CAD,s corporate governance I saw back in August last year. The principle complaint was about £17.132M admin expenses for the 6 month period, the majority of which was for a non cash impairment of VAT??-- probably not important now. Weiss do not give an indication of how much money they would be able to return to shareholders if they get control; Simon Duffy suggests it is 17-26p per share over 18 months. As at 27/04/10 CAD's cash balance is £29.3M. Legal spend should be less than £4m per year going forward? Weiss would like to keep Ian Boran as CEO. A lot of the work Weiss suggests needs to be done, has been or is being done under the current board. The current board is proposing to significantly strengthen an already (IMO) pretty robust corporate governance system, and has cut the cost of the board by 60%. The board and entire management team (including Ian Boran presumably) will leave / resign? if Weiss get control. Three strategic options are on the table...1- Let the board run the business (no return of cash), 2- Instruct the board to partially liquidate and run a reduced business (10p per share returned to share holders according to Simon Duffy), or 3 Give control to Weiss (liquidate? its not absolutely clear to me Weiss will totally liquidate the business). Weiss would put the company in the hands of an Attourney, a Restructuring Specialist, and an Accountant. Simon Duffy says Weiss have candidly admitted to not following the Oil & Gas exploration sector and viewing their investment in CAD (25.01%) as merely a balance sheet play. I read somewhere else that Ian Boran (CEO) has 30 years? oil industry experience. I would like to see the existing board given the green light to run the business, retaining all current funds for those purposes, ie not returning any cash to shareholders at present.

I have now read the Weiss letter to shareholders and the chairmans statement, I have also consumed some alcohol and am thoroughly drunk... I think things are OK and the investment looks perfectly sound to me! nite all!-- maddogmcree you can,t go wrong here!!!!!!--- fill yer boots.

It is a thousand billion ie..1,000,000,000,000 so 2.5 trn pennies is £25 billion, pretty sure I ve got the maths right, dont know anything about gas prices though. On another tack I thought the reserves report quoted it all as 500 million barrels of oil equivalent. I dont know any thing about pricing oil either...No wonder Weiss are wanting to liquidate ASAP sat on 25% of this as balance sheet players only!! Must try finish reading all the RNS stuff!

Thanks for reply, sounds good as a recovery play, I will watch for now and maybe take a smallish punt in a couple of weeks or so. I am somewhat preoccupied with CAD and heavily in that for the duration most likely (not a ramp, having a re-think myself!) Good luck with this one.

Just a thought...If Weiss were to change their mind between now and the AGM, (by deciding to support the current interim boards proposals), perhaps after consulting with industry specialists; this would send a powerfull "probably worth more than 26p" message to the market.

Do you think there is any risk of the company doing another capital raising after this 13p thing?

Got part way thru part1 and read weis's letter, need a break! I have 350000 of these at approx 15p, seen nothing to inspire panic yet...for anyone looking to consider this stock there is an extreme amount of complete, relevant and up to date decision making info contained in todays RNS's.

NAV 35p per share less year to date pain ... nothing surprising after 5 minutes reading!!

With all the equity on the balance sheet (all be-it intangible) these are definately very tempting at this price, but is the current re-financing / funding deal just a stick to force the company into a more substantial and dilutive equity issue and cash call?... The market makers appear to be playing it safe by straddling the placement price...volumes are low... which way will it go?!

Only started looking at this recently and noted the IC article too as a bit odd. The current amount of capital raising seems relatively small, but perhaps too large to be viewed as an equity sweetener for relaxing debt conditions. Would the company benefit further with interest rates if it were to go on and do more substantial RI / open offer such as happened for TW. and MEC a year ago?

This was a big company which messed up, now its in the process of turning its self into a small company and returning spare cash to shareholders. I personally reckon 20 - 30p is where it could go in due course, not sure about the time-scales involved...its a bit of a patience tester this one!

This baby's gonna blow sky high any time now!.....................

I think you multiply sp by 7 and divide by 150 to get equivalent in old money (pre RI)... wish I was still in this!!!

I think an institutional is taking fright and putting up shares for sale via mm's. Hope its not Weiss! An alternative explanation for the price drop might be MM tree shake type stuff...

Thinking about it further, the only piece of news we are definately due shortly is NAV. If that comes on its own, it could (following a brutal write down) make the play look very tight. I have lost track of the numbers over the last couple of months, hopefully book value per share will remain comfortably over 30p in the next set of financial statements.

I'm nearly topped up to max as well...and feeling nervous... I hope another lesson in stock picking is not on its way! Still waiting for three things... update to net assets per share ... farm out thing ... cash distribution amounts / time scales.