Member Info for LeMajor

Retrace? Lunacy - not even 10M transactions yet !
That is a fraction of 1% and as has been shown many times, we need 4% or more to shift the SP by "market forces" - anything less than 2% is almost certainly the MMs stiring the pot to frighten the rabbits (and pay off their weekly tab at the wine bar.)

MikeMike, I tend to agree with you. We should obtain sufficient funds from the 4 conventional ventures to go it alone (with Bex). If we do include another partner it will probably be for their expertise in shale, rather than cash - but I believe it will be restricted to a minority holding with Dave running the show.

Guzzler, you mentioned, "I think DW saying 100/200 bagger, ........" I on the other hand believe he did not say any such thing.
The context which I remember being quoted has been subjected to "Chinese Whispers".
I believe the actual quotation was from a conversation in Sydney at a time when the ASX SP stood at about 1.5c and DW was asked what would you be prepared to sell for today. His answer went something like "If I was offered $1 (AUD) per share as it stands, it might be worth considering". At that time we had a relatively small number of leases being our initial foray into the NS. That amounts to a 50-100 bagger. Within 24 hours the Chinese whispers had translated the currency required to £1 which was virtually a 100-200 bagger.
Subsequently, we added to the leases, and also doubled the shares in circulation. Due to the fact that most rampers cannot tell the difference between a Mandolin and a Mandarin, let alone translate Chinese currencies. The 100/200 bagger story is a myth - but what is not a myth is that the company is worth much more now than it was back then when this alleged statement was made. As it happens, I think the 100/200 bagger is a distinct possibility - however it is NOT a prediction from DW but has its origins in a subsequent rampathon, probably initiated by short term investors who have already lost their shirts (but if they are still around, I'll stand to be corrected).
I'd like to think that this will set the record straight but as Paul says "a man hears what he wants to hear
and disregards the rest" (no not Bazinski, the other one).

I think you missed the point regarding Ice2v, it is an experimental well (notice the use of "is"). It's purpose is to provide data in order to assist in deciding the best way to develop the HRZ oil extraction process, and deliver a commercially profitable well.Were they looking for HC content analysis data - yes, were they looking for pressure drop-off rates - yes, were they looking at pressure recovery rates - yes, were they looking for flow rates during water extraction - yes, were they looking for oil flow rates - yes.
Did they get any of the data they were looking for? - yes, on all counts.
Were any of the results disappointing? - yes.
Why were they disappointing? - that will take some time as the raw data is still being consolidated, let alone analysed sufficiently to draw conclusions.
Early impressions suggest that there may be a better way to stimulate the HRZ, so we have successfully eliminated what was believed to be the "low cost" first attempt.
As the HRZ is likely to need "summertime conditions" the window of opportunity will be closed by the time planning and funding is in place - therefore there is no rush so the project has been mothballed for the time being, and attention is now being given to other projects in the exploration programme.
As Mickey said, the word "failure" is not appropriate in this context as we still have untried options in this project and in the other 4 conventional projects.

I'm not saying that's how it will go, just that by the time we have proven up the conventional prospects (even if only 3 out of 4,) we will be looking at the world from a different vantage point, and both the next phase and the methods employed to get there will have changed. DW has a habit of coming out with something novel each time so keep an open mind.

I can see 88e being divisionalised even further. so the shale and conventional divisions can be sold or grown as opportunity dictates. Any sell-off maybe part shares and part cash from the acquiring company, or we may get a dividend plus 20:1 consolidation from DW.
For example, someone with 100,000 35p shares (£35,000) could be worth a 2p divi (£2,000) and 5,000 shares at £7 each (£35,000).
Before anyone jumps on the consolidation option, there is NO WAY Dave would do this at present - but if we were restructuring anyway he might be inclined to move away from the penny stock image and take us out of AIM where the institutions prefer to play.- just thinking aloud.

MikeMike, it makes my eyes water at $2.50.
By that time I can only dream what the SP will be but I wonder whether DW would consider a special dividend - woldn't it be nice to get 1p per share by way of interest for those LTH who continue to hold through to say October 2019.

To clarify, the 400K barrels at Horseshoe are only a small part of the estimate for the Nanushuk interval - which as a whole will produce an estimated 120K bbl/day - just in case of any confusion.

Must say, I like this bit from Otto:
"The deviated Horseshoe-1A sidetrack was drilled to a total depth of 8,215 ft.
and encountered more than 100 ft. of net oil pay in the Nanushuk interval as well. Given the relative
shallow depth and quality of the reservoir being intersected, this trend is expected to commence
producing over 120,000 barrels of oil per day in 2021."
As there are estimated 400,000 takeaway barrels (with "in the ground" price @$5 that's $2bn) and our 30% share would be worth $600M.
Once proven we could probably secure an early sell but may have to give a discount - even so, we should have enough security to borrow against that reserve and get on with additional drilling late next year. The reserves at Bravo & Charlie (assuming they too are proven by this time next year) will only add to our ability to borrow, and at less risk to the lender.
The HRZ may not have turned out as quickly as we'd hoped, but at least it was a catalyst that has opened up so many opportunities in Alaska. We now have 5 strings on our guitar, and only the HRZ is known to be in need of tuning. What are the chances of getting hold of the minutes from 88e's planning team?
GLA

Being minute, their influence has diminished.

TITE, looks like you're waiting for a Vulcanic eruption.

Agentwsb, interesting article you posted. it says MSM has gone from zero to all seismic companies have it in last 10 years. Also says, equipment can be damaged during fracking , so the MSM gear can be placed in a nearby shaft/well to avoid that. If only Ice1 had not been sealed off. Most of the planning was done by BEX I believe, so maybe MSM was not so reliable at that time (?). Could have been a cost issue, I suppose (?), but too late to dwell on that now. I'm sure when we go for the horizontal, things will be different next time as there will me more vested interest.

The 3D is probably already in the hands of potentiial partners. It is unlikely to shift the SP on its own, but hopefully it will be so good that DW has to fend off those who want to join us, and so give him more leverage.
Even so it would be good to get a summary.

Duvk = suck

Ther's 8 times more oil in the unconventional, but the way to fund it is by first exploiting the conventional. The shale holds the biggest prize - but is a little more complicated to duvk out.

The extrapolation of flow rate and duration (as often quoted) is 15-25 times more for a horizontal to a vertical.
To take the minimum value of x15 it can be seen that the first day average of 253 barrels/ day would have been sustainable for 15days. While I realise there would probably be 15 times more fluid to extract I would expect ghe fracs closer to the vertical bore to clear first and so the HCs from frac1would be flowing long before frac15. Indeed it might ever help draw the fluids progressively from the adjacent frac, as it went.
IW2 has not been in vain, the data acquired will be used to enhance the modelling - and as seems faurly certain now, determine hiw much larger we need the fracs to be in order to achieve that "ctitical mass". Essentially, we need a bigger boat - when you double the size you quadruple the capacity.
Hopefully, we have a few shipping line owners waiting in the wings and keen to fund the next phase.

http://88energy.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/88-Energy-Limited-20170505.pdf

The above link posted by OlderWiser on HC. The article extract below suggested that normally the conventional would be the first targets, but that in this case planning for the unconventional was already at an advanced stage when 88e got involved.

Unconventional before Conventional?
88E’s initial focus in Alaska was to test the ‘producibility’ of the prolific source
rocks of the North Slope. Just a few years ago the industry consensus was
that there remained relatively little conventional potential to pursue. Recent
drilling success particularly in the Nanushuk Play has shown the latter to be
incorrect. 88E in the past 12 months itself has released results of its own
seismic study, which has identified up to 15 conventional leads and a potential
resource of over 1bn barrels net. We currently believe this to be the primary
target but has little or no value in the current 88E share price.
Current Valuation – Unconventional Only
Given the high standing of 88E management and the appraisal results from
Icewine#1 we actually believe a successful result from Icewine#2 is already
largely factored into the valuation (so any further upside post a successful
result on this basis alone is unlikely to be sustained). A successful result
however would almost certainly attract a farm in partner and this would be the
next catalyst for a further re-rating of 88E’s unconventional acreage position.
We do not believe however that the market is giving 88E sufficient credit for
its conventional opportunity and we believe most of the upside over the next
24 months may come from further testing of this potential.

When the deal is announced, we will get an indication of the value of the HRZ based on the data gathered. It will be interesting to see how many horizontals will be drilled and whether more core sampling will take place prior to those. With iceroads planned for winter we may yet see them utilised for more than Bravo & Charlie.

LTI, those negotiations are under way. One has been announced regarding Horseshoe project.
I suspect Charlie & Bravo will come out late summer as planned. You really should keep up with the RNS's.
Why do the toddlers expect the grown-ups to keep spoon feeding them when the detail is already on the plate, direct from the head chef ??!

Success or de-feet that is the question.